Gary Gustafson 
Welcome back to the Thursday edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots where we get a massive 11 game slate to tackle on DraftKings and FanDuel. After a huge start to the second half of the NBA season on last night’s two gamer – we set our sights on tonight and building our bankroll!
NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown
Opening up this 11 game NBA DFS slate on Thursday, even post All-Star Break, we still have some news to watch with questionable tags for players like Devin Booker, Aaron Gordon, Delon Wright, Eric Gordon, James Wiseman and Jeff Green.
We also have some big names already ruled out including Joel Embiid, Kevin Durant, Ben Simmons, Bam Adebayo, Fred VanVleet, Pascal Siakam, Christian Wood, Evan Fournier and D’Angelo Russell.
So if you thought post-break NBA DFS would be any less chaotic, well, sorry to hit you with a cold dose of reality.
One thing that is critical to do in my mind on these massive slates is to try and find 1-2 game environments that really stand out and dig deep into those where the masses may simply try and pick “one-off” best plays from every possible game. In my experience in NBA DFS, it is far easier to isolate games to attack versus cherry-picking 7-8 “one-offs” in your lineup – spend the time digging into the games INSTEAD of the players themselves and the lineup building becomes far simpler.
NBA DFS Core Games to Target
If there is one game that jumps out to me tonight – it is without a doubt the Sacramento Kings and Houston Rockets – a game with one of the fastest projected paces on the slate and includes two of the worst defensive teams in the entire league.
Over the last 10 games, the Kings rank dead last in team defense while the Rockets rank as the 4th worst. During that same period, no two teams are giving up higher FG% than these – surrendering 52.5% and 50.6% from the floor respectively.
From beyond the arc, they rank last (Kings) and 3rd to last (Rockets) in opposing three-point percentage, allowing opponents to make over 40% of the three’s they attempt. The Rockets are giving up the most opposing rebounds per game and all this has resulted in both teams ranking bottom 5 in opposing points allowed per game.
So to recap- we have the second-fastest projected pace on the slate featuring two of the stone worst defenses in the league in terms of rating, efficiency and points allowed – and there is not a single player in this game priced above $9.1K on DraftKings. Giddy up.
De’Aaron Fox ($9.1K) is the most expensive play from this game and the only one above $9K. While Tyrese Haliburton is expected back tonight, the Kings expect a minutes restriction which means more Fox being the engine that drives the Kings offense and the type of ceiling play that we need to anchor too in any game stack.
Buddy Hield ($6.6K) is really interesting in this spot as a result of his three point volume as it relates to the Rockets inability to defend the 3. Over the last 10 games, Hield is averaging 10 3PA per game with only Damian Lillard and Steph Curry shooting more from behind the arc. Now combine that with the Rockets inability to defend the perimeter and we could see Buddy light it up from deep here tonight – especially with Haliburton still limited.
Marvin Bagley and Richaun Holmes are interchangeable plays here at $6.6K/$6.5K on DK – both with 30+ minute roles against this undersized Rockets front court. I mentioned no team in the NBA is giving up more rebounds per game than the Rockets right now – so one or both of these Kings big men could have a double-double on lock down.
The Rockets will still be without Christian Wood and Eric Gordon is questionable, while both House/Nwaba remain out. This leaves the Rockets in their perpetual mode of being undersized and short-handed – resulting in the entire offense falling on John Wall ($8.2K) and Victor Oladipo ($8.2K).
Over the last 10 games, only Joel Embiid and Damian Lillard have higher usage rates than Mr. Wall’s 34.6% – higher than Giannis, Luka, Beal etc. If you had any of these superstars tonight playing against the Kings league worst defense – wouldn’t you be all over them? Now we get a superstar player, in the nut match-up and he is only $8.2K? LOCK BUTTON WALL.
I am interested to see what Houston does tonight if Eric Gordon is out with continued knee soreness. Justin Patton ($4.9K) had been starting in place of Wood but the game before the break against Brooklyn, the Rockets opted to move Patton to the bench and play small with PJ Tucker ($3.5K)at the 5.
Patton has played 26 minutes or more in each of his previous three games and I do think – with Bagley/Holmes up front – we could see him reinserted into the starting unit and this is a player that has legit 7X upside here that he has demonstrated.
I know I am laser-focused on this game but for good reason – it is not often we get a game environment with high pace, no defense, and pricing that is this soft collectively. If this was a 5 or 6 game slate, this game would be the focus of everyone but on an 11 game slate, ownership will be wildly spread out. I will have a core tonight in GPP’s solely focused on this game as the late-night hammer!
NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up
On 11 game NBA DFS slates, finding your pool or GPP strategy can be overwhelming. I personally hate giving you “best plays” because I think trying to handpick the 8 best players in a 22 team pool is a fool’s errand. Instead – focus on the game environments you love and dive deeper into those spots.
Tonight, we get the opportunity with the Kings-Rockets to attack one of the fastest projected pace game environments, with two bottom five defenses in terms of rating, efficiency and points allowed and we can do so with a player pool on DraftKings that is considerably under-priced. Take advantage – the late night hammer awaits!
Enjoy this slate – let’s get in our FREE Discord today and chat it up while we dig through our cheat sheets and custom projections here at Win Daily to set up the start of this NBA DFS season with some big wins!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
