jamie calkins 
NHL Betting Picks Thursday 3/11
Welcome to Keith’s NHL Betting Picks Thursday 3/11. Just how we drew it up, a 2-0 bounce back night for The Model. Full disclosure, when it was announced Kings goalie Cal Petersen was put on the COVID Protocol List and they were starting someone who hasn’t played an NHL game since 2014 (!!) I almost jumped ship and hedged with the Ducks. But I rode with Troy Grosenick to the promised land. Montreal also easily took care of the Canucks, both games won 5-1, and now we are on to Thursday.
We have 10 games on the slate tonight let’s take a look at the updated profitability and over win percentage for the teams playing tonight.
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Dashboard Edges
- Jets Puck Line (+1.5, -175) over the Maple Leafs
- Panthers Money Line (-136) over the Blue Jackets
- Penguins Money Line (-205) over the Sabres
- Capitals/Flyers Over (6.5, +100)
- Hurricanes Money Line (-235) over the Predators
- Islanders Puck Line (-1.5, +135) over the Devils
- Rangers Puck Line (+1.5, -162) over the Bruins
- Lightning Money Line (-335) over the Red Wings
Keep an eye out for Starting Goalies. Shoutout to my buddy @JoePucks for getting me hip to -1 lines. They offer similar value to betting on regulation, but you push on a OT/SO win instead of losing the bet. You also push on a 1 goal win in regulation as opposed to winning the bet if you take regulation but that is the trade-off when placing this bet.
My Picks
Free Picks
Penguins -1 (-137): The Penguins are the significantly better team. The Sabres played a close game with the Flyers on Tuesday, but when re-watching the game I saw a lot to be desired from the Sabres defensively and I see the Penguins exposing that tonight. Look for Crosby, Malkin and company to run over Buffalo without Jack Eichel.
Flyers/Capitals Over 6 Goals (-125): These two teams hit their overs at an extremely high rate, the two highest over win percentage teams on the slate tonight. They are third and fourth overall in total goals this year (6.25 and 6.23). There is nothing to suggest that will change today, let’s hope to get some good bounces and get that over.
Premium Pick
Flames ML (-113): The Canadiens are probably a slightly better team at this point with Jake Allen in net who has been playing above expectations this year. However the Flames are fully rested (Canadiens played last night) and are playing their first game with their new coach. That energy is something I believe will push them over the edge and get them the victory tonight.
Follow along on Twitter @KeithKavJr for the most up-to-date insight and advice.
