Gary Gustafson 
Welcome back to the Monday edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots where we get a solid eight-game slate to tackle on DraftKings and FanDuel and we are here to help you win big and build your bankroll as we inch closer to the start of the MLB season!
If you have been waiting to join the Win Daily Sports family – now is your chance! Promo code Sweet 16 gets you 16% off the package of your choice – all in time for March Madness.
NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown
Looking over this 8 game NBA DFS slate on Monday, we are staring at a slate without a ton of early injury news, which frankly, is always a bit terrifying. The fact that the injury news we do have is, well – boring – could lead folks away from the stars and to a more mid-range build as a result.
There are two constants in this NBA DFS season, however – 1) Value always surfaces and 2) Stars win you slates.
This slate has a front-loaded feel with arguably the best games being the first to tip-off, including a Hornets/Kings game that is loaded with mid-range plays for those who want to go more balanced. My man Adam Strangis did an exceptional job as always highlighting this game and a few key plays in his Cash Game Breakdown.
The other 7 PM EST start is a rematch of sorts from Saturday as the Bucks and Wizards tango, but this time with Bradley Beal back on the court. This game is an NBA DFS GPP dream as we have massive star power in an elite pace-up spot as we get the 1st and 3rd fastest-paced teams this season squaring off against each other.
For context – the game on Saturday played at a pace of 113 possessions. The Wizards on the season play at the fastest pace of any team at just over 103 possessions per game – meaning this game on Saturday played at a 10% increase in pace over the league’s fastest pace team this season. More pace means more possessions and means more DFS points.
What this game provides, besides the pace metric and the 240 game total, is star power – the type that can win you slates and set cash lines as they did on Saturday.
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11.1K), Russell Westbrook ($10.5K), and Bradley Beal ($9.4K) are not cheap, nor should they be. Giannis dropped a 70 DK point triple-double on Saturday while Westbrook sans Beal had an 80 DK point triple-double of his own.
Now there is no real reason to expect Giannis cannot hit that ceiling again, but I am sure the skeptics will say – Beal is back so Westbrook won’t have that same path.
Here is the counter however, in that game Rui Hachimura took over as the second offensive option with 18 FGA on his way to a 50+ DK point effort of his own while Deni Avdija, Garrison Mathews and Raul Neto combined for 32 field goal attempts.
The 50 FGA from those types of players will decrease drastically and that fantasy production will flow as it has all season right back to Mr Beal.
On Saturday, we saw Giannis, Westbrook and Hachimura combine for over 200 DK points and I would expect tonight that Beal slides into that third spot for a similar 200+ DFS point foundation.
Now paying for the stars means we have to find value somewhere and while the injury news may not open up “new value” – I would argue the old value is still ripe for the picking and much of it lies in this game.
The Bucks mid-range plays like Donte DiVincenzo ($5.1K) and Pat Connaughton ($4K) give you 25-30 DK point output and consistent and significant minutes. In fact, these two were on the floor for 8 & 9 minutes of the 4th quarter on Saturday – giving them the kind of close out run we look for in fringe plays.
The Wizards will likely turn to Alex Len ($3.7K) again at Center who was a Ghost Model darling on Saturday and delivered 33 minutes and 22.5 DK points at minimum price. Tonight, DraftKings has pushed the price only $700 higher and a similar output gives you another 6X type outing.
NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up
If you ever watch an investment commercial or read a financial advisor’s brochure, you will see the comment – “past results do not guarantee future performance” and that is largely true in NBA DFS as well.
However, I am a believer in “seeing the path” in NBA DFS and so using a previous game log like Saturday’s to outline what we would want/need tonight is critical.
So let’s just say Giannis and Westbrook combine for 150 DK points again, Beal takes the Hachimura path to 50+ and the DDV/Patty C/Len trio gets you over 80 DK points of value. That leaves you around 285 DraftKings points with two punt plays to go – a path that I would argue, leaves you staring at 300+.
The goal on every slate in NBA DFS tournaments is to shoot for ceiling and the stars are what unlock that ceiling. There is no game tonight with the star power of the Bucks/Wizards as a Giannis, Westbrook and Beal trio can set the cash line themselves in this kind of fast-paced game script. The value may not be obvious at first glance, but if there is anything this season has taught us for DFS – the value ALWAYS opens up.
Enjoy this slate – let’s get in our FREE Discord today and chat it up while we dig through our cheat sheets and custom projections here at Win Daily to set up the start of this NBA DFS season with some big wins!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
