Christopher Day 
This is March, baby! The NCAA tournament gets underway tonight and I could not be more excited, but there is also a great NBA slate to tackle with a ton of star power and value to go with it early on. Fajita Friday’s editions of the Gems, folks, let’s make it a great one.
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 FD price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in these price ranges and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like in this range, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Point Guards
Luka Doncic ($10,400 FD / $10,700 DK)
On the tail end of a back-to-back and playing their third game in the last four days, Portland will have their hands full with Luka Doncic. While we were lucky enough to get Luka at 10% or lower in two matchups versus the Clippers, who struggle mightily versus primary ball handlers, there is no guarantee we get him at that kind of ownership here tonight. Nonetheless, he’s averaging 27.5/8.3/12.3 in four games since the NBA All-Star game, sporting a 35.7% usage rate and gets a 29th ranked Portland defense tonight who allow over 51 FPPG to opposing primary ball handlers in their own right.
Chris Paul ($6,900 FD / $7,500 DK)
On the second half of a back-to-back against Minnesota, Phoenix is looking to avenge yesterday’s 119-123 loss versus one of the worst teams in the NBA. While both CP3 and Devin Booker showed out, Karl-Anthony Towns was too much for them to handle on the inside, and Anthony Edwards had a career-high 42 points. After dropping 17/7/5 yesterday, I expect CP3 to control every possession tonight and be the calming influence on both ends of the court rather than getting into a run ‘n gun playing style with Edwards and Towns again here tonight.
Also Consider:
- Jordan Poole ($4,600 FD / $4,500 DK)
- Nico Mannion ($3,500 FD / $3,200 DK)
Shooting Guards
James Harden ($11,300 FD / $11,000 DK)
Yes, Orlando is not exactly the opponent we wish to see Brooklyn face off against to get ceiling games out of James Harden and Kyrie Irving, but the raw points are too much to pass up on tonight’s NBA slate. With a plethora of injuries to the Orlando backcourt, Harden’s matchup is as good as it gets, and while Evan Fournier is a capable defender in his own right, the Nets will continue running a ton of switches to get Harden away from him. If this is a blowout, it’s because The Beard drops yet another triple-double.
Devin Booker ($7,500 FD / $7,800 DK)
Sporting a 34.7% usage rate since the NBA All-Star break, Devin Booker gets another matchup versus his good friend, Karl-Anthony Towns. While the narrative is strong in this one, so has Booker’s play been of late: he’s averaging a robust 29.3 PPG in his last four, shooting 53.7% from the field on over 20 shot attempts per game.
Also Consider:
- Victor Oladipo ($8,100 FD / $8,300 DK)
- Anthony Edwards ($7,100 FD / $7,100 DK)
- Caris LeVert ($5,600 FD)
Small Forwards
Jaylen Brown ($7,500 FD / $8,000 DK)
Getting a piece of the Boston offense tonight is going to go overlooked because of the amount of star power available at the top of the pricing grid. Any time Sacramento’s defense, or lack thereof, is on an NBA slate, we need to take notice; they consistently rank last in the league in defensive rating and defensive efficiency, and Boston’s trio of Tatum/Brown/Walker will be able to take advantage. Enter JB, who has three straight games of 24 or more points and is scoring at will right now for the Celtics.
Michael Porter Jr. ($6,500 FD / $6,700 DK)
One of the riskier options in NBA DFS, most will flock to Larry Nance Jr. in this spot, and rightfully so – Cleveland is decimated with injuries to Taurean Price and Kevin Love, while Andre Drummond continues to sit out. However, MPJ has been hot since the All-Star break, scoring 20 or more points in all four games and securing eight or more rebounds during that span. With Tomas Satoranksy bolstering the Bulls’ defense with Zach Lavine’s improved play, we need to attack Chicago on the inside and on the wings, and MPJ can get more volume than anticipated because of it.
Also Consider:
- Jimmy Butler ($10,600 FD / $9,500 DK)
- Larry Nance Jr. ($5,300 FD / $5,200 DK)
Power Forwards
Domantas Sabonis ($9,300 FD / $9,500 DK)
Day ending in y, play the most underrated player in the NBA. With Myles Turner struggling with foul trouble as of late, Sabonis has been getting more run at the ‘5’, where he’ll be up against a much-improved defensive player in Bam Adebayo, but I’m not concerned. Sabonis’ ability to get on the outside and run the pick ‘n roll will allow for the Pacers to avoid the tandem of Butler and Adebayo on the inside all night long.
Jayson Tatum ($8,900 FD / $8,900 DK)
Similarly to how I pointed it out in the Jaylen Brown blurb, getting exposure to this Boston offense will interest me leading up to tip-off, as Sacramento’s defense has been abysmal all season long. Ranking dead last in the NBA in both defensive rating and defensive efficiency, Sacramento has no answer for the leading scorer and most utilized option on the Boston offense, Jayson Tatum, who leads the team with 25.3 PPG and a 30.5% usage rate.
Others to Consider:
- Jerami Grant ($7,000 FD / $7,200 DK)
- Jae’Sean Tate ($5,100 FD / $5,400 DK)
Centers
- Nikola Jokic ($11,000 FD / $10,600 DK)
- Nikola Vucevic ($9,700 FD / $9,900 DK)
Also Consider:
- Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,600 FD / $9,400 DK)
- Robert Williams ($5,700 FD / $5,800 DK)
Value Gems: Check the projection model.
I will continue to stress the importance of having both the projection model and cheat sheet open when building lineups for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays.
You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost
