Brian Tulloch 
Welcome back to the Friday edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots where we get a monster 11 game slate to tackle on DraftKings and FanDuel that kicks off at 7:00 PM EST with a whole bunch of post trade deadline news and the typical injury chaos to sort through!
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NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown
Any time we have an 11 game NBA DFS slate it is always a challenge – now add on the fact it is the day after a wild NBA Trade Deadline with all new rotations, teams playing short-handed and the typical injury craziness which includes Q tags for stars like James Harden, Jimmy Butler, Lonzo Ball, Draymond Green, and Collin Sexton and you get Friday Night’s slate!
I will say this candidly – the flurry of trade activity yesterday is going to wreak havoc on today’s slate. You are going to need to be incredibly active as a DFS player to adapt and adjust to news today as a result of the new rotations as well as the injury news to both Harden and Butler. If you cannot commit to being “active” as a DFS player on this slate – TAKE THE DAY OFF.
This is advice that most people will not take – and I know that by now – but I feel the need to push it. It is OK to take days off – the Fear Of Missing Out (FOMO) is real for DFS players but if you are not going to be able to actively adjust to new lineups post deadline and tinker up until and after lock – this is honestly not the slate to just “play” for the sake of playing.
We could see the Miami Heat be MASSIVE chalk once again, even on an 11 game slate, if Butler is to sit as we already know Goran Dragic is OUT and Victor Oladipo will not make his debut. How many Heat are too many is a question you are going to be asking again tonight if Butler is unable to take the court.
The Orlando Magic traded away Vuc, AG and Fournier yesterday meaning tonight’s line-up for Orlando is going to look unlike anything we have seen all weekend – and they get arguably the best match-up on the board with the Portland “defense.” All of a sudden, guys like MCW and Terrance Ross could be monster players in the mid-range as the entire offense falls on them against the worst defense in the league.
The one “good thing” about this slate is that it is largely front-loaded – with 7 of the 11 games tipping off within the first hour of lock. The late games are frankly unappealing as well with the Cavs/Lakers and Hawks/Warriors rounding out the slate without LeBron, AD, or Steph. So all this means you should have the news you need to make decisions by the time we approach lock.
The biggest piece of news we will need is likely the status of James Harden ($10.8K). With Kyrie and KD still out, we know the drill by now – Harden is always the priority play no matter the price or size of the slate. The issue is, the Nets have no real incentive to push him and this feels like another slate where his status is going to come down to pre-game warm-ups.
Now – we have easy and logical pivots with someone like Luka Doncic ($10.9K) who was in a similar spot on Wednesday and saw his ownership skyrocket once Harden was ruled out and everyone pivoted – I think frankly, we could see much of the same tonight.
As a first look article, this slate today is really difficult to outline because without knowing the Miami rotations, the status of James Harden and what true value will emerge – honestly, I do not have a great feel for the types of builds we can make.
I can see a two-star build with Harden, Luka, Giannis and Joker anchoring the core as you would have just under $5K per player for the rest of your build. Honestly, if Butler ends up sitting again – you can just start clicking the Miami Heat in around them as only Bam Adebayo ($8.2K) is “priced up” with everyone else being $5K or lower.
All of Tyler Herro ($5.4K), Kendrick Nunn ($4.9K), Gabe Vincent ($3.4K) and Trevor Ariza (3.4K) have demonstrated 6X paths as they showed last night against Portland and I really think a two-star build with multiple Heat values if Jimmy Buckets is out, is the logical way to attack this slate.
NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up
If you have not gotten the message at this point – this 11 game NBA DFS slate the day after the deadline is going to be chaotic and you need to really be able to dedicate the time pre-lock and post-lock to watching as lineups are released and news is dropped.
We have another Stars and Scrubs path potential tonight with so many new rotations post the NBA Trade Deadline and this is the kind of sized slate, that those builds typically lend themselves to anyways.
Be ready to watch for the new lineups today and wait for the star news to drop and then adjust. Be patient and be willing to commit to this slate OR take the night off. This is the kind of slate that can get wildly overwhelming as we approach lock if we do not have clarity on Harden/Butler specifically. Be smart with your bankroll tonight!
Enjoy this slate – let’s get in our FREE Discord today and chat it up while we dig through our cheat sheets and custom projections here at Win Daily to set up the start of this NBA DFS season with some big wins!
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