jamie calkins 
NHL Betting Picks Saturday 4/3
Welcome to Keith’s NHL Betting Picks Saturday 4/3. The Model went 2-1, technically 2-2 if you count my extremely biased Devils ML play that I only took because I was at the game. I still don’t know how that Avs/Blues over didn’t hit, but at least we got Coyotes ML and our dog Sharks ML. Not a bad night.
We have 11 games on the NHL slate today starting with 2 games at 1:00. Let’s take a look at the updated profitability and over win percentages for the teams playing today.
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Dashboard Edges
- Penguins Money Line (+100) over the Bruins
- Lightning Puck Line (-1.5, -137) over the Red Wings
- Canadiens Puck Line (-1.5, +108) over the Bruins
- Hurricanes Money Line (-155) over the Stars
- Panthers Money Line (-159) over the Blue Jackets
- Rangers Puck Line (-1.5, +100) and Money Line (-250) over the Sabres
- Islanders Puck Line (-1.5, +143) over the Flyers
- Islanders/Flyers Over (5.5, -120)
- Avalanche Puck Line (-1.5, +102) over the Blues
Keep an eye out for Starting Goalies tonight.
My Picks
Free Picks
Flyers/Islanders Over 5.5 (-120): The Flyers are on a sharp downward trajectory and they are letting in goals at an alarmingly high rate over the last month (75 goals, 4.4 goals/game). The Islanders who don’t usually score goals have actually been generating a high number of chances and goals. The Flyers hit their overs at 82% on the road (highest in the league) and the Islanders hit their overs at 71% at home, so let’s get some goals here.
Rangers -1.5 (+100): We are going to give this another try today. The Rangers won in OT on Thursday but dominated the game. They are facing the better goaltender for Buffalo in Ullmark. They led Buffalo in High Danger Chances (19-8), Scoring Chances (29-17) and Expected Goals (3.38-1.88). Getting this at even odds is great which is why we are taking it tonight.
Premium Pick
Senators ML (+215): I hate doing this but the edge is there. The Senators have given the Canadiens all sorts of trouble this season winning 3 of their 5 meetings. Do they have any business winning this game? Nope. But The Model has their line priced +175 so there is a monster edge on the +215 line which forces my hand here.
Follow along on Twitter @KeithKavJr for the most up-to-date information regarding the games tonight
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