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NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 04/06

Shoutout the #SicEm for taking home the Natty yesterday and making us a ton of money. Now onto another day of NBA action, the most anticipated injury report will be coming out of New Orleans, where both Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram are questionable to play with Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Kira Lewis already ruled out. It’s Taco Tuesday’s edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 FD price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in these price ranges and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like in this range, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

Point Guards

Damian Lillard ($9,200 FD / $9,400 DK)

Primary guards versus the Clippers has long been a point of attack for me this NBA season, and with LA failing to acquire a guard at the trade deadline, I’m going right back to the well for the remainder of the season. Enter Damian Lillard, who averaged 29.8 PPG in March on 44.6% shooting, and while most of those games came without CJ McCollum in the lineup, Dame kicked off the new month with a 32/4/5 game versus Milwaukee before blowing out OKC a few days ago. Cash + GPP Play

Trae Young ($8,500 FD / $9,100 DK)

The price here just doesn’t make sense for the primary ball handler in a matchup versus New Orleans. While Trae Young has dealt with some inconsistencies this NBA season, he’s still sporting a 32.6% usage rate on the season with a 25.2/3.9/9.4 scoring line on 43.1% shooting and gets a matchup versus a Pelicans teams that allows over 50 FPPG to opposing primary ball handlers. GPP Play

Lonzo Ball ($7,500 FD / $7,500 DK)

Unless both Zion and Ingram and playing tonight, Zo is the staple in our NBA cash lineups. Despite a 3-week absence from the lineup, Zo came back and dropped 27/4/9 in 37 minutes against the Rockets last game without both Zion and Ingram playing. Keep updated with injury news, but this one is fairly straightforward. Cash Play

Also Consider:

  • Steph Curry ($9,500 FD / $9,700 DK)
  • Dennis Schroder ($7,600 FD / $6,900 DK)
  • Malachi Flynn ($5,100 FD / $3,900 DK)

Shooting Guards

Paul George ($8,700 FD / $8,100 DK)

By no means has PG been playing to his standards lately, but a matchup against the 29th ranked defense in the NBA combined with position scarcity has me prioritizing him on FD for one of two SG slots. You don’t necessarily need him on DK, but his scoring is due to improve; PG13 has a 30.6% usage rate in his last five, where he’s only shooting 39.8% from the field – taking nearly 19 shots per game for the Clippers, his shot needs to drop if they want to win this one. Cash + GPP Play

CJ McCollum ($7,900 FD / $8,000 DK)

Another SG who is simply too cheap on FD. While Dame remains the priority in the Portland lineup for us tonight, McCollum makes for a great secondary piece of stacking this game. When Dame takes over, McCollum’s ceiling obviously takes a hit, but he’s still sporting a 28.7% usage rate on the season and averaging 23.8 PPG on 44.7% shooting, including over 19 FGA per game. GPP Play

Hamidou Diallo ($5,600 FD / $5,300 DK)

With Detroit resting half their roster every other night, they will be a primary source of our value on any given NBA slate. Enter Hamidou Diallo, who has averaged 27.6 DK PPG in his five-game Pistons tenure on a 13.8/6/2.2 scoring line while shooting 56.8% from the field and 54.5% from behind the arc. Wait for the Pistons injury report and attack accordingly. Cash + GPP Play

Also Consider:

  • Gary Trent Jr. ($6,400 FD / $6,200 DK)
  • Donte DiVincenzo ($5,500 FD / $5,900 DK)

Small Forwards

Kawhi Leonard ($9,500 FD / $9,200 DK)

Attacking the same POR/LAC game, it’s impossible to ignore the catalyst on both ends of the floor for the Clippers on tonight’s NBA slate. In his last seven, Kawhi is sporting a 27.6% usage rate and dropping 24.6/7.7/5.3 on 52.9% shooting and gets a favorable matchup versus Norman Powell, Carmelo Anthony, and Nazir Little, all of whom have combined to allow over 42 FPPG per game to opposing wings, including over 50 FPPG to opposing primary ball handlers. Cash + GPP Play

Jimmy Butler ($9,100 FD / $9,000 DK)

There is no safer option at the thinnest position on tonight’s NBA slate. Entering this matchup with Memphis, Butler has been filling the box score on a nightly basis, averaging 20.4/5.2/7.6 on 51.5% shooting in his last five games. With Memphis allowing a league-high 46 FPPG to opposing SFs, he makes for a great pivot to Kawhi Leonard in GPPs. GPP Play

Danilo Gallinari ($5,200 FD / $5,700 DK)

Bogdan fits in here as well, but with a $2,000 price difference on FD, Gallo makes more sense. Entering tonight’s contest with six straight double-digit point performances, Gallo has a 22.7% usage rate over that span and a 15.3/5/1.5 scoring line on 46.6% shooting. With multiple injuries to the Hawks in a run ‘n gun game versus the Pelicans, he will be relied upon to provide secondary scoring behind the Young/Capela duo and makes for an interesting SF2 on tonight’s NBA slate. GPP Play

Also Consider:

  • Jaylen Brown ($7,700 FD / $7,600 DK)
  • Bogdan Bogdanovic ($7,500 FD / $6,200 DK)
  • Nicolas Batum ($4,800 FD / $4,700 DK)

Power Forwards

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,200 FD / $10,700 DK)

Top stud on the NBA slate in a cakewalk of a matchup – don’t overthink it if paying up this route and pairing him with Steph Curry.

Pascal Siakam ($8,700 FD / $8,200 DK)

Down to an 8-man rotation with both FVV and Kyle Lowry out; Siakam leads the team in usage rate, scoring, and rebounding percentage with his two teammates out of the lineup. Great spot for our NBA cash lineups.

Jerami Grant ($6,400 FD / $6,900 DK)

Revenge narrative for Jerami Grant? Have a look in Discord to see what the Pistons do in their latest injury report before making a move here.

Also Consider:

  • Zion Williamson ($9,700 FD / $8,900 DK)
  • Domantas Sabonis ($9,200 FD / $8,800 DK)
  • Thad Young ($6,500 FD / $6,000 DK)

Centers

  • Nikola Jokic ($10,600 FD / $10,500 DK)
  • Nikola Vucevic ($8,800 FD / $8,700 DK)
  • Myles Turner ($6,200 FD / $6,200 DK)

Value Gems: Check the projection model.

I will continue to stress the importance of having both the projection model and cheat sheet open when building lineups for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays.

You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost

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