Gary Gustafson 
Welcome to the Saturday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!
If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Early Slate Breakdown
We have a pair of split slate 6 game MLB DFS slates today on DraftKings and some solid prize pools, but at least on the early slate we seriously lack for the big-name pitching we typically covet in our MLB DFS Picks.
We also get the dreaded double-header garbage with Toronto/Kansas City being the first game of a 7 inning double-header slate for them on Saturday which really changes how you approach that game strategically.
For me it takes it from a game I would have argued was a high upside stack, to one now I can convince myself to roll with Steven Matz ($9.7K). As a Mets fan, I am happy for Matz but this price is some SERIOUS sticker shock for someone who we saw routinely flash upside in New York and then fizzle out.
There are a few things at play here – first, with this being a double-header we could see a watered down or thinned our Royals lineup opposing Matz which would add to his appeal. Secondly, we have seen a change in approach through the first two games for Matz where he has focused more on generating ground balls (55% clip), with his fastball velocity ticked up and a higher reliance on his slider and change-up than his time in New York.
Now the red flags are there – it is a two-game sample size and Matz has a 95% left on base rate which is WILDLY unstainable. Frankly, if this game was 9 innings and Matz was going to be chalk – I would have argued for a Royals stack for leverage. The line-up here will be key for Matz the projected starting 9 for KC has just a 16% K rate so it could seriously limit his K upside but this is also a line-up with a 50%+ GB rate which plays into Matz strengths and could give him another path to strong run suppresion. Stay tuned for the lineup for KC!
If I see the KC line-up is “the usual” and if Matz ends up being chalk – I think we can easily pivot up to Sonny Gray ($9.3K). Gray makes his first start of the season with no pitch count limits expected and his metrics of 30% K rates and 12% SS rates from 2020 would put him on par with any ace level arm you can find. Assuming we hear nothing about pitch count limits to contradict what has already been reported, Gray would be an ideal pivot off Matz.
My favorite arm on this slate however is Indians RHP Triston McKenzie ($8.7K) and if you are unfamiliar with him, I suggest you scroll through the Pitching Ninja account for some highlights because his stuff is FILTH.
Of all the arms on this slate, McKenzie has the highest K rate at 33.7% and swinging strike rate at 12.7% since the start of last season. McKenzie has been death to RHB in his early career with a 40% K rate and this Reds line-up today is projected to have 4 plus the pitcher spot to attack.
One of the reasons I think you can easily pay up for a duo out of Matz/Gray/McKenzie today on DK is the super cheap pricing in arguably the best hitting spot on the day in Oakland/Detroit.
With cold weather and winds blowing in in nearly every other game, this game in Oakland will be played in 75 degree and sunny skies with the wind blowing out – giving them a solid advantage over the other hitting environments.
Detroit RHP Casey Mize is talented but he has also been hit hard early, especially by left-handed batters – to the tune of a .289 ISO mark and while Oakland is typically right-handed heavy – they now have the ability to produce more balance with Matt Olson, Mitch Moreland, Jed Lowrie and Seth Brown.
Now every single lefty bat mentioned there has a .230+ ISO mark against RHP since the start of 2020 and while it pains me to write up Jed Lowrie, we need to mention it is his birthday today and narratives always trump personal bias. Lowrie birthday bomb incoming!
The Detroit side of this game is also one I want to attack with LHP Cole Irvin on the mound who has given up a tidy little 55% hard contact rate in his career with just a 6% swinging strike rate. That lack of swing and miss stuff makes him easy to go power hunting against with cheap Tigers exposure in a game stack.
So to summarize – I am going with McKenzie and either Matz/Gray at SP for my MLB DFS picks on the early DK slate with an Oakland/Detroit game stack as a core part of my GPP builds today as you can anchor to the few high K arms on the slate with a powerful and cheap game stack.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Main Slate Breakdown
The main slate MLB DFS picks for pitching are an odd conundrum in that we have elite arms like Clayton Kershaw and Yu Darvish but the fact they oppose dangerous Dodgers/Padres lineups makes it a question of talent or match-up?
From a pure metrics and match-up perspective, is it weird to say the best GPP strategy would be to take the arms in the Baltimore/Texas game?
It is not like I woke up this morning thinking – man, I cannot wait to play Dean Kremer and Dane Dunning but if you took the names out of it for a second, just look at it this way.
You have two arms with 25% plus K rates, 10% swinging strike rates and face two projected high K lineups – the spit is there but Vegas having this game with a 9 IRT tells you there is risk involved.
Dunning has been exceptional to start the year with a 33% K rate but the one red flag I have here is that he has gone just 70 and 71 pitches in these first two games. Kremer meanwhile gets the best K spot match-up wise against Texas but he is pitching on 3 days rest after throwing 54 pitches in his last start. Would it shock me if these arms got strong K outputs and delivered solid DFS outings? Not at all. Would it shock me if they both got their teeth kicked in Corbin/Ponce De Leon style? Also no. Risk and reward for this two.
The boring route may be to go to Milwaukee and attack the arms in the Brewers/Pirates game with Brett Anderson and Trevor Cahill.
Anderson ($7.2K) does what he always does – generates a nearly 60% GB rate, pitches to contact and simply gets by. Now these are not the guys I typically want in MLB DFS GPP play but the Pirates line-up that opposes him is what pushes me there as they have a 50% GB mark and .130 team ISO in their projected lineup against LHP.
Cahill ($6.9K) on the other side of this game gets the high K spot we covet with a 30% K rate and 11% SS rate since 2020 going up against a Milwaukee line-up that has a 28% K rate with Christian Yelich sidelined.
I think you can opt to go a few different routes here based on ownership – Cahill and Dunning together both offer you the K upside we want/need in GPP’s but if either are “too risky” for you – I do think Brett Anderson is a viable, albeit boring pivot. Although – on days we have played guys who have gotten us negative 15 & 20 DK points – boring does not sound so bad!
The offense for me on this slate really is what is going to carry us and I think the best pure spot to attack is the Angels and Twins.
Matt Shoemaker has given up a .200+ ISO mark to hitters from both sides of the plate with a 46% hard contact rate since 2020 and so I think the Angels stack becomes the priority here with the big bats of Trout/Ohtani/Walsh but I also love the salary savings guys like Anthony Bemboom and Luis Reningfo present at nearly minimum price at C and 2B/SS.
Jose Quintana is a good left handed arm who limits right-handed power.
That is what the metrics say and I believe them.
Then you remember this is the Minnesota Twins and while Quintana can take a heavy ground ball approach to limit hard contact, there is arguably no better right-handed heavy team than the Twins when fully healthy.
Nelson Cruz and Josh Donaldson sit firmly in the middle of this lineup with Mitch Garver is an elite catching spend-up – all three of which have mashed LHP to the tune of .250+ ISO marks since the start of 2019. We need to watch the injury news to see if Byron Buxton is able to return as he nurses a hamstring injury because if he is, that .462 ISO mark this season against lefties stands out in a big way.
The main slate is all about letting the bats win it for me and this “late night hammer” has the bats to do just that!
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up
This is a strong split slate for our MLB DFS picks and I think we can make some serious noise in GPP’s. We need to watch ownership and lineups as Saturday’s can mean some funky decisions and give us value we never thought we would have!
Enjoy this slate – let’s get in our FREE Discord today and chat it up while we dig through our cheat sheets and custom projections here at Win Daily to set up the start of this MLB DFS season with some big wins!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
