jamie calkins 
NHL Betting Picks Sunday 4/18
Welcome to Keith’s NHL Betting Picks Sunday 4/18. The Model had an even night going 2-2. The over/unders treated us well with the Sens/Habs hitting the under 6 in a 4-0 Sens victory, and the Caps/Flyers lighting up the board and allowing the over 6.5 to hit in a 6-3 Caps win. The Blues let us down starting up 2-0 then losing 3-2, and the Devils game gave us a roller coaster of emotion going down 4-0, then coming back to make it 4-3, before ultimately losing 6-3. We move on to Sunday to finish the week strong.
We have 6 games on the NHL slate tonight. Let’s take a look at the updated profitability and over win percentages for the teams playing today.
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Dashboard Edges
- Capitals Money Line (+130) over the Bruins
- Rangers Puck Line (-1.5, +123) over the Devils
- Penguins Money Line (-250) over the Sabres
- Islanders Money Line (-135) over the Flyers
Keep an eye out for Starting Goalies tonight. The Sabres are playing a goalie I have never even heard of, and that is saying something for the Sabres who’s normal tandem is Linus Ullmark and Dustin Tokarski. The Canucks also are finally back of a long layoff with COVID. Unfortunately for them their symptoms were quite terrible and they draw an instant tough matchup with Toronto today.
My Picks
Leafs -1.5 (-115): As mentioned this is the Canucks first game in about 3 weeks due to COVID. Their symptoms were so bad and players have admitted they still have not fully recovered. Their mind is on their health and family (as it should be), however that doesn’t mean we can’t bet against them. They are also missing 5 players still including their better goalie (Demko). The Leafs are the best team in the North Division and I expect them to dominate Vancouver tonight.
Penguins -1.5 (+100): Another -1.5 spread, how could this go wrong. The Penguins have played Buffalo 5 times this season and have covered the puck line in 4 of those games. The only time they didn’t was yesterday. However as mentioned above Buffalo is playing a goalie I have never even heard of before. That strategy worked against when I faded Swayman from Boston however he has turned out to be quite a good goalie. This guy playing for Buffalo couldn’t get starts over Tokarski and Johansson therefore I feel more comfortable this time around.
Bruins ML (-130): The Bruins seem to be turning the corner after a worse-than-expected start to the season. Their trade deadline additions of Reilly, Hall, and Lazar are already paying dividends. They have the rest advantage here and probably the goaltending advantage too. The Caps have been hard to evaluate this season because their underlying numbers don’t suggest they should be doing as well as they are. The Bruins are 3-1-2 against Washington this season, with their most recent battle an 8-1 loss last Sunday. Look for a Boston bounce back today.
Follow along on Twitter @KeithKavJr for the most up-to-date information regarding the games tonight
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