Joel Bartilotta 
Welcome to the Tuesday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a massive 13 game main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.
The slate today has a couple of different paths you can take. You can pay up for pitching and piece together a stack and some value pieces. Or you can pay down a bit for pitching and load up on some offenses prime for success.
I’m normally a single line up person but because of the way the slate is today, I feel the need to build 2 lineups. One with a priced up pitcher, one with a low priced pitcher. My goal today will be to give you options for both.
With that being said, let’s dig in to today’s MLB DFS slate!
MLB DFS: The Aces
Lucas Giolito ($10.6k) vs. Detroit Tigers – This is your premier matchup on the day. Giolito is the second biggest favorite on the board today. He faces a Tigers lineup that has struggled against righties (they’ve actually just struggled as a whole this year). As a team they have a 27% k rate vs. righties this season and a wOBA south of .300. This sets up beautifully for Gio today.
Gio did struggle in his last outing against a surprisingly potent Red Sox offense, but that was an outlier and look for a nice bounce back today. On the season, he has a 32% k rate which is in line w/ his career numbers and a 15% whiff rate. He’s also really been able to limit hard contact. In 18 IP this season, he’s only given up 4 barrels. If paying up for pitching today, he’s going to be my guy.
Max Scherzer ($12k) vs. Toronto Blue Jays – I don’t make it a habit of picking on the Blue Jays lineup. Up and down the lineup they have solid hitters. But they’re right handed heavy and they face one of the top pitchers of our generation today. Since 2019, Max has a K rate of 37% vs. righties, while also inducing more soft contact than he does to lefties. I wish he was a little bit cheaper due to the match-up, but it’s a match-up he should do well in.
Jose Quintana ($6.7k) vs. Texas Rangers – Although it may look like there is some recency bias since Quintana dominated the Rangers last week, it’s actually due to the fact that the Rangers really struggle against lefties. I don’t expect another 8 k’s from Quintana tonight. 5-6 is probably more realistic for his skill set.
Rangers just can’t put good wood on Lefties. Although they had 7 hits against Keuchel the other night, 5 were singles and it was a relatively easy night for him. For the season the Rangers have a .109 iso against lefties. Of all the teams playing today ,that’s the worst ISO vs. the handedness of the pitcher. They also have a .271 wOBA vs. lefties, which again, is the worst wOBA vs. their opponents handedness. At only 6.7K, it won’t take much for Quintana to exceed his value
Chris Paddack ($7.7k) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks – Paddack came up with a lot of fanfare in 2019. He battled Alonso for the ROY award, rightfully losing to the polar bear. Although he’s taken a little step back over the last 2 years, he’s starting to round into form. Two starts ago he was able to get the pitch count up to 99 pitches. There was a drop off last start but that was due to this team letting him down with poor defense. What stood out to me the most was that he came away w/ a season high of 7k’s.
This is purely a hunch play. Diamondbacks will probably throw out a mostly lefty lineup tonight. The main secondary pitch that Paddack throws to lefties is his changeup, 33% of the time. Only Kole Calhoun has a cxWOBA over .300 to this pitch from righties. For the season, the Diamondbacks have been mediocre against righties. Not a safe play, but possibly a fun play.
MLB DFS: The Bats
Boston Red Sox vs. David Peterson – This has the makings of a short outing for Peterson. Peterson isn’t a bad pitcher by any means. His xFIP is a full 4 runs lower than his ERA. He just doesn’t match up well w/ the Red Sox. This is a lineup that is setup to be successful vs. lefties. As a team, they have a .343 wOBA and a .186 ISO this season. If we go back to 2019, we’re looking at a .380 wOBA and a .264 ISO.
Peterson’s main pitch to hitters is the sinker, 41% to lefties and 28% to righties. Let’s look at some numbers since 2016 to the pitch. JD Martinez ($4.2k) .400 ISO, Xander Bogaerts ($3.7k) .211 ISO, Rafael Devers ($3.6k) .222 ISO, and Hunter Renfroe ($2.4k) .233 ISO. Vegas currently has the Red Sox at a 3.89 IRT. I think that’s wrong. Very Wrong.
New York Mets vs. Garrett Richards – I will not stack the Mets again… Eh, I’m doing it. Richards has a 6.25 xFIP this season. That’s a borderline DFA area. Here’s why I’m looking this way today. I tend to focus a bit more research on the pitcher’s main secondary pitch. Richards’ is the slider. This is a pitch the Mets’ lineup has had a ton of success against.
Brandon Nimmo ($3k), Francisco Lindor ($3.2k), Dominic Smith ($3k), Pete Alonso ($3.9k), and Michael Conforto ($2.9k) all have ISO’s north of .240 and cxWOBA’s north of .390. Outside of Alonso, all of these guys are super affordable. Especially Conforto who is really heating up. Conforto is a super streaky hitter who when he’s hot, he gets really hot.
Houston Astros vs. Marco Gonzales – The Astros are finally fully healthy. Jose Altuve ($3.5k) is back after a bout with Covid. Here’s another lineup that is set up to do really well against lefties. For the season, they have a low K rate of 18% and a .342 wOBA vs. lefties. With Gonzales not missing any bats this year (8% whiff rate), I really like this spot for the Astros. The guys I want to prioritize here are Altuve,Alex Bregman ($3.8k), Yulieski Gurriel ($3.2k), and Martin Maldonado ($2.1k). All have had success against Gonzales’ main pitch which is the sinker. Don’t be afraid to start your stack with Maldonado in the 9 hole.
Baltimore Orioles vs. Corey Kluber – This is my bonus cheap stack of the day. Kluber just isn’t the same pitcher as he used to be. His 5.9 xFIP is one of the worst on the slate. He’s been struggling to keep guys off the bases as evidenced by his near 2 WHIP. The Orioles should be able to put up a bunch of runs tonight against Kluber. If you’re paying up for pitching, this is a lineup that has some guys that can put up points and save you some money. Cedric Mullins ($2.9k) has multi-hit games in 3 of his last 4 and he’s cheap.
MLB DFS Aces and Bases Wrap Up
This has the makings of an extremely fun slate. Lots of different paths can you take, and whichever path you take I hope it ends up with you cashing.
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