DFSGhost 
Pretty locked into this NBA slate and there’s no turning away from the core for me tonight; there is some defining injury news early on that has shaped my main lineup already, and while the new news may be enticing to some, most of these guys will be in my core later tonight on the preview show at 5:45pm EST. It’s Thirsty Thursday’s edition of the Gems – let’s ride.
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 FD price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in these price ranges and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like in this range, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Point Guards
Steph Curry ($9,600 FD / $10,300 DK)
He’s sporting a 36.6% usage rate this month en route to a 37.3/6.1/4.4 scoring line on 52.7% from the field and 47.6% from behind the arc – yeah, this guy can shoot the ball. Taking on a Minnesota team that ranks 28th in the NBA in defensive efficiency and 25th versus primary ball handlers is the cherry on top. Lock and load.
Jrue Holiday ($7,500 FD / $7,700 DK)
Although I do prefer Giannis in this spot, Jrue Holiday is firmly in play with the number of injuries this Milwaukee team has. Sporting a mere 20.9% usage rate in his last seven, Holiday’s productivity hasn’t slowed down despite Giannis shouldering the load, where the former has posted a 17.1/4.9/7.7 scoring line while shooting 49.5% from the field. Taking on a Houston team that allows over 50 FPPG to opposing point guards certainly has him in today’s player pool.
Also Consider:
- Kyle Lowry ($6,400 FD / $7,100 DK)
- Facundo Campazzo ($4,600 FD / $4,600 DK)
Shooting Guards
Caris LeVert ($8,100 FD / $8,000 DK)
Not the best revenge narrative but it is one, nonetheless. LeVert comes into this one facing his former team being the primary scoring option alongside Malcolm Brogdon in the absence of both Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner. Since the two have been out for quite some time now, LeVert has been battling minutes inconsistency, which does worry me a bit, but the upside is high on this NBA slate considering the Pacers can actually win this game, so there is no need to force minutes into the deeper part of the rotation. Sporting a 29.4% usage rate across his last ten, where he’s posted 22.7 PPG, I’d be willing to take a chance on him on FD where you need two shooting guards.
D’Angelo Russell ($6,900 FD / $6,700 DK)
Playing nearly 30 minutes off the bench for the Timberwolves has us loving DLo at these kinds of prices. With the Warriors playing much better defense, it’s less so that and more so the pace at which they play – second fastest in the NBA – that has me intrigued with Russell; sporting a 27.4% usage rate while logging 29 MPG in his last five off the bench, DLo has dropped 21.6 PPG along the way while shooting 51.3% from the field.
Also Consider:
- Andrew Wiggins ($6,700 FD / $7,000 DK)
- Josh Jackson ($5,600 FD / $5,800 DK)
Small Forwards
Kevin Durant ($9,300 FD / $8,500 DK)
With both Kyrie Irving and James Harden out for the Nets tonight, it’s the KD show. Do I really have to spell this one out for you? In 191 minutes played without his two teammates, KD has a 37% usage rate and over 1.55 FPPM; he dropped 45 DK last game and only took seven shots – seven. I can go on and on, but unless news comes out that dictates some sort of limitation, he’s the lock of the NBA slate.
Oshae Brissett ($6,800 FD / $5,300 DK)
With Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner both ruled out again tonight, we can go right back to the well with Brissett. Sure, his price has quickly caught up to him given how many people have been playing him in their NBA lineups, but the productivity has been there; Brissett has a mere 15% usage rate in his last four games, but that hasn’t stopped the tallest active player on the Pacers, standing at 6’7’’, from posting a 16.3/10.3 double-double average across 37.7 MPG. Playing a Nets team that struggles mightily on the inside only benefits his athletic ability and he’ll be relied upon once again to log heavy minutes.
Also Consider:
- Michael Porter Jr. ($8,000 FD / $8,300 DK)
- Anthony Edwards ($7,800 FD / $7,400 DK)
- Kevin Porter Jr. ($5,600 FD / $7,000 DK)
Power Forwards
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,200 FD / $11,000 DK)
A matchup against a lowly Houston Rockets team without John Wall smells like a blowout, but let’s not forget that it took all of 24 minutes for Giannis to drop 24/14/7/2/1 against Philadelphia the other night en route to 58 DK points. In his last six games, Giannis is sporting a 33% usage rate while posting a 28.7/12.5/5.8 scoring line on 59.2% shooting and there is nobody stopping him in the paint; he has one of the highest ceilings on this NBA slate, and if there is enough value to allow for it, we can confidently slide him into our lineups.
Isaiah Stewart ($5,900 FD / $6,000 DK)
With Detroit infamously sitting out the bulk of their veterans every second game, Isaiah Stewart is someone to keep an eye on down the stretch. Not only does he take on a Dallas Mavericks team that ranks 18th in the NBA in rebounding percentage and 24th in offensive rebounding, but he’s also been a consistent producer when given the minutes; in seven starts this season, Stewart has posted a 13/11.7/1.3 scoring line on 69% shooting while producing 35.5 DK PPG.
Also Consider:
- Zion Williamson ($9,400 FD / $9,800 DK)
- Christian Wood ($8,400 FD / $8,200 DK)
- Juancho Hernangomez ($4,300 FD / $3,300 DK)
Centers
- Nikola Jokic ($10,900 FD / $10,900 DK)
- Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,700 FD / $10,100 DK)
- Willy Hernangomez ($4,900 FD / $4,100 DK)
Value Gems: Check the projection model.
I will continue to stress the importance of having both the projection model and cheat sheet open when building lineups for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays.
You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost
