Brian Tulloch 
Welcome to the Wednesday, May 5th edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!
If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Main Slate Breakdown
Welcome in to Wednesday’s 11 game MLB DFS slate where we have some continued rain concerns in Boston and Minnesota, elite high dollar arms, under-priced SP2’s and some high dollar stacks to plug into our MLB DFS picks!
At first glance on this slate, the obvious studs up top in Shane Bieber and Yu Darvish jumped out, but as I scrolled down and saw the price points on Martin Perez and Brady Singer, my usual “double ace” mindset quickly shifted to a “double SP2 mindset.”
It was reassuring to see that Adam Strangis had the same reaction in today’s Starting Rotation – so it made me wonder if going with the two cheap arms was a viable route tonight.
If going with Martin Perez ($6.6K) and Brady Singer ($5K) on DraftKings, I think what makes them appealing is that they are not guys you are simply hoping “get you there” and instead, I would argue they have paths to 20+ DK point ceiling which would smash these price points and offer you ceiling level returns.
Perez is coming off a 21 DK point, 7 K outing against the Rangers and steps into a match-up today with the Tigers that has essentially been a 20 point lock for lefties this season.
As you can see in the chart above from Statmuse – every single one of the last seven LHP to face the Tigers has put up 20 DK points or more (yes I am rounding Logan Allen’s 19.7 up). Every single one of them!
Singer meanwhile, is expected back after taking a comebacker last start that forced him to leave early and his price drop to $5.5K seems – well, wrong. Singer has averaged just under 24 DK points per game over his previous three starts, going 18 IP over those starts with just 2 ER and a 20:3 K:BB ratio. Why exactly did his price go from $8.3K just a few starts ago down to this?
The point is – I think you have a strong argument where both Perez/Singer could get you in the 20-25 DK point range based on their 2021 form and opponents tonight and if you are getting that kind of performance for two punt arms – I am wildly interested.
One of the reasons I think this path is viable tonight is that we have big-time offenses and high-priced ones that look to be in elite spots – and that is the
The Red Sox will get Casey Mize to start before attacking the worst bullpen statistically in all of baseball in Detroit. No bullpen in baseball has given up more ER’s or more HR’s than the Tigers this season and with Mize failing to get past the 5th inning now in two starts, allowing 11 ER in the process, you get the double dose for Boston where they rack up runs early on Mize and then feast late on the Tigers pen.
There is another team on this slate, trotting out a hittable SP and a bullpen that ranks among the bottom 8 in ER’s allowed and HR’s surrendered in 2021 and that is the Texas Rangers taking on the loaded Minnesota Twins line-up.
LHP Hyeon-Jong Yang will get the start for Texas as a low K arm that is not fully stretched out and has to face a Minnesota lineup that is just LOADED with right-handed power. It all starts with Byron Buxton and Nelson Cruz if you are getting guaranteed at-bats against a lefty, but also we need to watch to see if Miguel Sano ($3.3K) is activated today with Alex Kiriloff injured and scheduled to see a hand specialist.
What I love about these two teams is how well they correlate when building your MLB DFS Picks.
At catcher – you can flip back and forth between Mitch Garver or Christian Vazquez. At third base, you can move easily between Josh Donaldson or Rafael Devers and at SS the same applies to Jorge Polanco and Xander Boegarts.
The price points are nearly identical on these two teams so it makes for easy mix and match opportunities, especially for those looking to MME/3-entry type builds where you can attack the same match-ups and team by simply swapping out key players in the same basic build type.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up
This looks like a phenomenal GPP slate where our MLB DFS picks can really explore avenues that allow us some high-upside builds anchored around slate breaking offenses and under-priced arms with paths to ceilings.
Tonight, I think exploring a “double-punt” strategy with Singer/Perez in an effort to stack the big bats of the Red Sox and Twins, will give you a path to massive upside which is exactly what we want for the tournament focused lineups.
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
