Joel Bartilotta 
Welcome to the Tuesday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a big 12 game main slate on Fanduel.
While we have one true ace, there are a bunch of really solid options that I like that are in good matchups. We also have a Coor’s game that may be impacted by weather again.
With that being said, let’s dig in to today’s slates!
MLB DFS: The Aces
Robbie Ray ($8.3k) vs. Atlanta Braves – This is purely a GPP play. Braves always have potential to put up a big number with some of the bats in that lineup. However, against lefties this year they have been brutal. They have a high K rate over 27%. What’s more concerning is their power numbers. They have just a .557 OPS and a .129 ISO. We’re more than a month into the season at this point. Targeting lefties against this lineup may be a thing this year. It’s surprising.
Ray has seen a resurgence this season. In his last 3 starts he’s gotten 40, 39, and 40 FD points. At his price point, that’s damn good. His price is starting to creep up based on his recent production but it’s still in a manageable zone. So is this resurgence real? Or is it a façade?
Ray is relying more on his fastball this year than he has in years past. He’s throwing it over 60% of the time compared to a career average of 50%. Ray’s biggest battle in his career has been his control.
Throwing the FB more has given him much better control. He’s getting first pitch strikes 65% of the time vs. 58% for his career. This has all really helped with his success this year. It’s the Braves and this match-up could go south really quick, but I’m a big fan of Ray for GPP’s tonight.
Freddy Peralta ($8.6k) vs. St. Louis Cardinals – Cardinals have a pretty potent lineup. They have big bats in Arenado and Goldy. But if they have a weakness, it’s against righties. While their K rate is average at nearly 24%, they have a below average OPS and wOBA to righties. Peralta showed last week that even if he gives up a few big hits, he still has the ability bring it back with his elite K rate of 40.8%.
Peralta is relying a lot more on his slider this year, throwing it 35% of the time. Some of the bigger bats in this line up (Goldy, Molina, and Bader) have whiff rates north of 37% to this pitch this year.
Really like Peralta’s chances of bouncing back tonight after a sub-par outing against the Phillies last week. Peralta gave up 5 ER early last week against the Phils but still managed to K 8 and get you 21 FD points. He’s someone that even if he’s struggling a bit can still put up a respectable number.
Walker Buehler ($10.8k) vs. Seattle Mariners – Stud Mariners prospect Jared Kelenic is expected to be called up Thursday. So we have a few more days of picking on the Mariners before they finally get some pop in their lineup.
First, let’s take a look at what the Mariners are doing this year vs. righties. They own a 25.4% K rate, a sub .300 wOBA, and a .665 OPS. They are a very attackable team when righties are on the mound.
While his K rate is considerably lower than it has been over the past couple of years, Buehler still sports a very respectable 27% K rate this year. A lot of this has to do with his first three starts where he only K’d 4 in each. Over his past 3 starts, he’s had 9, 10, and 8 K’s. Very encouraging trend. Outside of Mitch Haniger and to a much lesser extent Kyle Seager, this lineup really struggles with the pitch mix that Buehler will throw tonight.
One final positive spin for Buehler is his hard hit rate. For the season, he’s struggled with his hard hit %. It’s at 41%. In his last start vs. the Cubs it was down to 26.7%. I’m hopeful this is a trend that will continue. All signs point to Buehler continuing his string of strong outings.
A strong case could also be made for Brady Singer ($7.8k) vs. Detroit Tigers and Kwang-hyun Kim ($6.3k) vs. Milwaukee Brewers. Both are facing opponents that have K rates vs. their handedness north of 28%. The cons of playing them though are the Tigers are playing much better ball of late and Kim is a low K pitcher. On a night where we have decently priced pitchers, I don’t think you’ll need to go here.
MLB DFS: The Bats
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Bryse Wilson – Wilson has been pretty dreadful this year. In a short sample size of only 12 IP he’s already managed to give up 4 homers. That’s one every 3 innings for those counting at home. Of all the pitchers on the slate tonight, that’s by far the worst. He is also sporting a near 6 xFIP and a swinging strike rate below 10%. He’s not missing bats and he’s giving up the long ball. Match made in heaven.
Wilson has been throwing his sinker considerably more this year, 25% of the time. How have the Blue Jays handled the sinker this year you ask? Pretty damn well. Vladimir Guerrero ($4k), Randal Grichuk ($2.8k), Marcus Semien ($3.4k), and even the struggling Cavan Biggio ($2.5k) have been hitting this pitch hard this year and with success. All have hard hit rates over 40% and wOBA’s over .400 to the pitch. I’m all in on the Blue Jays tonight.
Washington Nationals vs. Chase Anderson – Nationals get to face off against a pitcher this year that has struggled. Anderson for the season has a 5.42 xFIP and is giving up a decent amount of hard contact at 32%. He’s not getting many K’s as his K rate is a meager 17.8%.
We also have a pitcher that is a reverse splits pitcher. Since 2016, he’s giving up a .372 wOBA and a .249 ISO to righties. Because of that, we don’t need to shy away from someone like Trea Turner ($4k). With Juan Soto ($4k) back in the lineup this is going to be a tougher lineup. Yes Soto hasn’t been good so far this year, but it’s only a matter of time before he goes off.
Atlanta Braves vs. Robbie Ray – Wait, didn’t you just write up Robbie Ray as one of your pitchers? Yes, yes I did. This is a hedge play. If you aren’t going to go with Ray tonight, you should strongly consider the Braves bats. Yes, the Braves have struggled mightily vs. southpaws this year. Yes, Ray has been better with his control this year and in turn performing better.
We have enough historical data at our hands to show us that the Braves should not be this bad vs. lefties and that Ray can blow up at any time. Guys like Ronald Acuna ($4.5k), Marcel Ozuna ($3.3k), and Ozzie Albies ($3.2k) have historically done extremely well vs. southpaws. A breakout for all could very well be in the cards tonight.
Some other sports I also like tonight are the Chicago White Sox vs. Kent Maeda and Kansas City Royals vs. Matthew Boyd.
MLB DFS: The Wrap Up
This is going to be a fun slate. We have some really good mid-tier pitching to go along with Walker Buehler. We also have some pretty wide open spots for offense. There’s a chance for some rain in Atlanta but the game that’s really at risk is Colorado.
Good luck and hope to see you in the green tonight!
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