Gary Gustafson 
Welcome to the Wednesday, May 12th edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!
If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Three Game Early Slate
Happy Wednesday my MLB DFS family – we get a split slate of DFS action with a 3 game Early Slate that kicks off at noon and a 10 game Main Slate at 7 PM EST and neither slate will have Coors Field chalk which makes this even better!
The early three-gamer is actually pretty solid and there is nothing better than some mid-day DFS action so I wanted to give my quick thoughts on this slate.
The pitching is simple, honestly, I think there are only two viable options with Sonny Gray and Taijuan Walker – the only two arms on this slate with swing and miss ability and the pricing is low enough where you are still able to build big stacks around them.
I would argue that staying right here with the Reds/Mets is the ideal way to attack this slate for bats as well. Listen, the Cubs bats are the top stack on the slate against LHP Sam Hentges however they are insanely pricey with the top 4 hitters all at $5K or higher on DK and that assumes they even play, as Kris Bryant and Javier Baez both missed Tuesday’s game with illness/injury.
The Reds take on RHP Trevor Cahill, who is surrendering a .204 ISO and 47% HC rate to LHB this season with a reliance on a change-up he is throwing nearly 30% of the time and it is getting hammered to the tune of a .438 ISO and 40% HC rate.
Scroll through the LHB on the Reds – Winker, Moustakas and Naquin – all of them have .250+ ISO marks and 40% plus hard contact rates against that pitch type which makes them an ideal core stack to build around to attack Cahill’s pitch type.
While the right-handed batters have not been the spot to target, I will say – a Eugenio Suarez addition to a Reds stack looks amazing here today. Cahill relies nearly 40% of the time on his sinker to RHB – Suarez has a .340 ISO against that pitch type and most importantly, he has a 51% fly-ball rate against RHP this season and has a low GB rate against that pitch type. So where Cahill wants to pound righties into the ground with the sinker, Suarez has the swing profile to lift it and take him deep.
Now the Mets – listen, it’s been a while since we wrote up a Mets stack and this is not a “revenge narrative” against Matt Harvey in his first start back in Citi Field. The reality is, Harvey is a much better pitcher this year but he still is an arm with a low K rate and a high fly ball rate, especially to LHB with a 13% K rate and near 50% FB rate.
Harvey has been able to limit the damage by relying on his change-up but the reality is, hes generating almost no swing and miss stuff and even his soft contact rate at just 14% is low. So while the big crooked innings haven’t been there – he is also relying on pitching to contact and BABIP to help him. The Mets are a full stack or stay away for me as a result because what you are looking for in this spot is multiple hit innings, where the lack of a put away pitch leaves working with runners on base and the Mets using their left-handed heavy line-up to attack their ex-franchise star.
The core for me here is going to be the lefties – Conforto, Dom Smith and Lindor. Welcome back to New York Dark Knight – I hope you get a well-deserved ovation – then the Amazin’s hammer you for a DFS GPP takedown!
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Main Slate
Oh man, not only do I get Matt Harvey back in New York but I get a Jon Lester day too? Is it my birthday?
This slate at first glance is incredibly top heavy with pitching – meaning I think we have to build around “double aces” and I also think with how strong this slate is, it is going to make finding bats that much harder.
Thankfully, we have Jon Lester against Philadelphia in what sets up perfectly as the Philly bats are cheap enough where you can lock in two high-dollar elite K arms like Gerrit Cole, Brandon Woodruff or Danny Duffy as an SP2 and still 5 man stack the Phils against our favorite lefty!
As Adam outlined in his Starting Rotation – I simply see no reason to move off the “top tier” – especially when I can get the stacks I want around them!
You guys know the deal by now, Lester has a near 6 xFIP and has a .200 ISO and 40% HC rate and will face an almost entirely right-handed Phillies line-up with the exception of Bryce Harper and Didi Gregorious.
It looks unlikely that JT Realmuto will play after an injury last night but the Phillies still have Andrew McCutchen with a .290 ISO to LHP, Alex Bohm (.260) and Rhys Hoskins (.310) all with strong power numbers on the right side of the splits.
I am always looking for strong correlation in my stacks to find teams that work well together and if we assume that Realmuto is out for the Phillies, can I find a stack to work around them with a strong Catcher? Enter the Kansas City Royals against RHP Casey Mize.
While Mize has struggled more against LHB, Salvador Perez profiles extremely well against Mize’s primary pitch types with a .300 ISO against the slider and a .500 ISO mark against the sinker which is what Mize throws nearly 60% combined to right-handed batters this season.
Any time that we go Royals – for me the mini-stack starts with the C/2B combo of Salvy/Whitt Merrifield and I am hopeful today we get Ryan O’Hearn in the lineup.
O’Hearn has been in a straight platoon but with a .241 ISO against RHP this season aligning with Mize’s .250 ISO and 52% HC rate allowed to LHB, he becomes a tremendous salary saving option to use in a Royals mini-stack.
Going with a Phillies/Royals 5-3 type build will still allow you to pay up for arms and that is a path that could pay big time dividends in GPP’s this evening!
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up
Two Slates and all day MLB DFS to talk about? Yes please!
The Early Slate is all about Gray/Walker and the Reds power bats with some Matt Harvey regression as an appetizer.
The Main Slate – well this is where you get a Picks and Pivots favorite – the ability to go double aces AND 5 man stack against the one and only Jon Lester. Fire up the band – make sure the Phanatic is ready, because tonight the Phillies bats take down a GPP!
Good luck tonight all! Let’s keep that hot streak rolling!
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