Gary Gustafson 
Welcome to the Thursday, May 13th edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!
If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Early Game Slate
Another day of MLB DFS split slate action for us on Thursday and it begins with a five game slate at 12:20 PM EST.
First and foremost, we have a slate-breaking ace in Corbin Burnes on this slate who possesses a massive 45.4% K rate this season and 20% swinging-strike rate and has put up 30+ DK points in 4 of his first 5 starts of the young season including a 9 K 30 point outing against the same St. Louis team he faces today.
The only real “concern” with Burnes is that he is coming off the COVID list after testing positive, however Burnes was asymptomatic during his quarantine. Unless we hear about some definitive pitch count prior to the game, I am simply locking him in as a core play on this slate.
The SP2 question is far tougher and while I do think there is a path to going double-aces with Jack Flaherty, the pricing on the bats dictates that I likely need to go cheaper and that leads me to two arms – Michael Pineda and Daniel Lynch.
As he always does – Adam Strangis laid out the path for both of these arms in his starting rotation where I think there are strong arguments to be made for both here today but there is risk in using either. Personally, I am with Adam though that the risk on Lynch is largely priced in at $5.7K and the season-long metrics would tell us we can attack Detroit with LHP this season.
Listen, Lynch got his teeth kicked in against the White Sox but a lefty struggling against the White Sox is not something I am going to be surprised by and Mike Matheny said after the game that Lynch was tipping pitches and they went to work to address it.
The reality is, Lynch has NASTY stuff and it all starts with the slider he threw nearly 40% of the time in his first start to the Indians.
The Tigers projected line-up has one batter in Robbie Grossman who profiles well against that pitch type, but otherwise the rest of the lineup all has 35% or higher whiff rates against that pitch type so there is some serious K upside here for Lynch with his pedigree.
One of the major arguments for Lynch on DraftKings as an SP2 is that he allows you a path to big bats while still being able to pay up for Corbin Burnes and that is one of the main strategy foundations for me on this five gamer – because I want to make sure I have big time pieces to the Braves/Blue Jays bats.
The Braves get Ross Stripling, a pitcher that has struggled mightily early in the year especially to right-handed batters with a near 3 HR/9 on the back of a .306 ISO and a walk rate at 11% that is equal to his K rate (fyi – that is not a good thing).
Stripling struggles with right-handed power is well, in for a real treat when you consider the right-handed power the Braves posses and the even scarier part is that they profile well against his pitch types.
Stripling has significantly upped his slider usage this season, a near 10% jump from the prior two years and is using it nearly 30% of the time to right-handed batters. The problem is he is giving up a .417 ISO and 42% HC rate with that pitch and in comes Ronald Acuna Jr. who has a .301 ISO and 52% hard contact rate against that pitch type. If Stripling goes to the curve, which he throws 20% of the time instead – well Acuna has a .311 ISO and 48% HC rate against that pitch type.
When Acuna hits a bomb in the first at-bat and you vault up the early leaderboards, you can smile and know we called it. Acuna double-dong day is coming – and I am here for it.
While Acuna profiles well, so too does Marcell Ozuna with a .246 ISO against the curve and a .330 ISO against the low 90’s velocity fastball. Now this stack can get expensive if you want to roll out Freddie Freeman and/or Ozzie Albies as well but you may get some true punt value you can use to offset that with Christian Pache ($2k) and Jeff Mathis ($2K) who could draw the start in a day game after William Contreras caught the last two games.
The Blue Jays will take on RHP Charlie Morton, who has surrendered 15 runs in his last three starts, spanning just 11 innings and one of those starts came against the same Jays team he faces today. Morton relies heavily on his curve to RHB, nearly a third of the time, and oh well – Vladdy Jr. and Bo Bichette both happen to hit said pitch to the tune of .250+ ISO marks and 45% hard contact.
For me in a roster build today – my goal will be to go 5-3 with the Braves being the priority, while a go power and home run hunting more on the Jays side all while locking in Corbin Burnes as my SP1.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Main Slate
The six-game Main Slate has a contest in Coors Field with an 11 IRT, a $2K Jared Kelenic making his MLB debut for the Mariners (thanks to Brodie Van Wagenen), and pitching options that well, are quite limited.
As Adam outlined in Starting Rotation – the pitching pool is SUPER dicey tonight and I think it leads me to either a path where I go double-aces with Christian Javier and Trevor Rogers or pair one with a dirt-cheap Logan Gilbert at $4K as a way to get Coors Field exposure.
Javier and Rogers have the kind of elite K stuff I want to anchor to in my MLB DFS picks with 30% and 33% K rates respectively this season and having two pitchers with demonstrated 30+ DK point ceiling on a slate where everyone tries to jam in Coors bats could give us massive leverage on the field.
The truth is, getting these two arms is not going to preclude you from missing out on big bats and I think there is a really sneaky stack tonight in the Tampa Bay Rays that offer us massive upside at likely no ownership and price points that make it easy to pay for the two big arms.
The Rays take on RHP Jameson Taillon in Tampa tonight and while the name value may keep you from picking on him, the metrics should not. Taillon has massive red flags – giving up .200+ ISO marks to both sides of the plate with 50% + fly ball rates.
The Rays order has 4 hitters in the heart of it with .220+ ISO marks against RHP since the start of last season with Randy Arozerena, Austin Meadows, Brandon Lowe and Mike Zunino. Additionally, Meadows and Zunino have 55%+ fly ball rates against right-handed pitching which sets them up for a batted ball profile that aligns with Taillon’s red flags.
The Rays are the kind of team on a short slate like this that has the demonstrated power to rival any other team and I think the combination of Coors Field and the lofty pricing on some of the Rays will make them virtually ignored. However just a quick glance at this slate and you will see we have multiple $2K type hitting punts – some even in Coors Field with Connor Joe and Josh Fuentes ($2K and $2.3K) respectively that allows you a path to go 5 man Rays with 3 man Rockies using the punt 1B/3B duo from the Rockies!
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up
We have two slates today that play somewhat similarly in that we have limited pitching options while also having clear big bats we want to anchor to. On slates like these, prioritize pitching FIRST and work your way into builds where we can still get the big bats. The day games are almost guaranteed to get some punts on a day game after a night game and the Main Slate has multiple hitters at minimum price that allow you to stack big bats and still get the arms you need!
Good luck tonight all! Let’s keep that hot streak rolling!
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