jamie calkins 
NHL Playoff Preview (First Round)
Welcome to Keith’s NHL Playoff Preview (First Round). A little different than my daily game pick articles. The NHL Playoffs are finally here! After a grueling 56-game season we are down to 16 teams. With the nuances of scheduling this year, each team will have a mini bracket within their division and then each team who makes it out of their division will be re-seeded for the Final 4. Not too many surprises with who made the playoffs. Here are the 16 teams who will be playing in the First Round:
We have some great First Round matchups. I will preview each series, post each series price and give my predictions. I will also keep a tracker for my entire slate of playoff bets, as I have some futures on who makes it out of their division, as well as who wins Lord Stanley. I will provide that info at the end as well as some general thoughts for betting the NHL Playoffs. Without further ado, let’s dive into the series.
East Division
#1 Pittsburgh Penguins (-150) vs. #4 New York Islanders (+121)
Season Series: Penguins: 6-2-0, Islanders: 2-4-2
Preview: The Penguins sport the best home record in the league and have home-ice advantage in this series. They should be fully healthy with the returns of Malkin a few games ago and Tanev is projected to be ready for Game 1. The Penguins had a great season and are well deserved to be at the top of this division. The Islanders started of the season very nicely and were battling for first, but things unraveled for them after the Trade Deadline. The Penguins are known for their offense and the Islanders for their defense, but both teams can handle their own on the opposite spectrums as well. The Penguins are 2nd in GF over their last 20 games while the Islanders are 30th. The major X-factor right now is the health of Islanders’ top goaltender Seymon Varlamov. Sporting top-5 goaltending numbers this season, if he is unable to play than the Islanders will have to rely on Russian rookie Ilya Sorokin, who has decent numbers himself but not to the standard of Varlamov. Two teams trending in opposite directions leaves me no choice in my prediction.
Prediction: Penguins 4-1
#2 Washington Capitals (+118) vs. #3 Boston Bruins (-143)
Season Series: Capitals: 4-4-0, Bruins 4-2-2
Preview: What a series this should play out to be. We have the 2018 Stanley Cup Champions versus the 2019 Stanley Cup Runner-Ups. We have the return of Zdeno Chara who spent 14 seasons with Boston and was the longest-tenured captain in the league before signing with Washington as a free agent in the offseason. Each team won 4 matchups against the other this season. The Capitals surprisingly are an underdog in this series, and that must be attributed to Boston’s recent form. They have been a freight train after acquiring Hall, Reilly, and Lazar at the Trade Deadline. The Bruins could not score pretty much all season but then finally woke up the last month. The Caps meanwhile have been battling injury concerns to their star players and also had to deal with the Tom Wilson/Battle of New York saga. The Bruins have been rolling and have been in the top-10 in offensive metrics over their last 20 games. The thing with the Capitals is their underlying numbers were not that good but they could mitigate that with their scoring talent. However, recently the Capitals haven’t been able to do that. Goaltending is also interesting for both teams as the Capitals will roll with the inexperienced tandem of Samsanov/Vanacek, while the Bruins will probably start with Rask but rookie Swayman could make a case for deserving that net. With the Bruins rolling and actually low key dominating their season series with Washington analytically despite it being tied 4-4, I have no choice here.
Prediction: Bruins 4-2
Central Division
#1 Carolina Hurricanes (-240) vs. #4 Nashville Predators (+190)
Season Series: Hurricanes: 6-2-0, Predators: 2-5-1
Preview: The Hurricanes have dominated this season series over Nashville winning 6 of 8. The Predators snuck into the playoffs on the curtails of Juuse Saros incredible goaltending. The Hurricanes offense has been rolling all season and there is no reason to see that slowing down here. A hot goaltender can change the complexion of a series, no doubt. But Saros will need to stand on his head to steal this one from Carolina. Nashville held their own in their matchups against Carolina this year despite only winning 2 of 8. Hurricanes offense, defense, and special teams have been better all season. The only edge you can really give to Nashville is goaltending. And there is a chance Mrazek/Ned can get on a roll and even out that edge. I feel generous to say the Preds won’t roll Carolina, but it wouldn’t surprise me if they do.
Prediction: Hurricanes 4-2
#2 Florida Panthers (+116) vs. #3 Tampa Bay Lightning (-143)
Season Series: Panthers: 5-2-1, Lightning: 3-5-0
Preview: The Battle of Florida. These teams do not like each other and this has the potential to be an absolute battle and best series of the first round. You could argue Tampa underperformed a little bit this year as the defending champs finishing 3rd in their division. But they were without their best player Nikita Kucherov all season and captain Steven Stamkos for the last 10 or so games. Kucherov is projected to be ready for the playoffs so we will see if he can come back right in stride or has some rust. The Panthers on the other hand had quite the season and outperformed expectations to a 2nd place finish in the division. A devastating blow to star defenseman Aaron Ekblad who sustained a season-ending injury with about 15 games to go. However Mackenzie Weegar has picked up the slack on the back end. Goaltending is where Tampa will display quite the edge with reigning Vezina winner Andrei Vasilevskiy in net for the Bolts and probably Chris Dreidger in net for Florida, with Bobrovsky and rookie Spencer Knight there in case Dreidger falters. With the Lightning having some injury concerns and coming off a long cup run, I am going against the grain here.
Prediction: Panthers 4-3
North Division
#1 Toronto Maple Leafs (-275) vs. #4 Montreal Canadiens (+210)
Season Series: Maple Leafs: 7-2-1, Canadiens: 3-6-1
Preview: The Maple Leafs have been viewed as the favorites to make it out of the North Division since Day 1, and are actually the only team with minus odds (-135) to make it out of their division of the entire league. They will be squaring up with a Canadiens team that has been hot and cold all season. They started off really hot and people were even thinking they might be better than Toronto, then went ice cold and fired their coach, before finishing the season relatively strong. Defense is their specialty but they’ve had to deal with multiple injuries on the back end. It’s unclear if they will go with their most expensive asset (Carey Price) or the goaltender who has performed better this season (Jake Allen) for this series. Nothing would surprise me and could potentially see the Canadiens pulling an upset if they get hot, but the Leafs are definitely the stronger team and should take care of this series.
Prediction: Maple Leafs 4-2
#2 Edmonton Oilers (-186) vs. #3 Winnipeg Jets (+150)
Season Series: Oilers: 7-2-0, Jets 2-7-0
Preview: Two teams that are going in opposite directions. Behind the incredible season from Connor McDavid, Edmonton has had a strong end to the season. Winnipeg has been reeling behind all sorts of defensive problems all season, as well as an injury to their strongest winger in Nikolaj Ehlers. Luckily for Winnipeg, Connor Hellebuyck is arguably the best goaltender in the league and the kind of goalie who can steal a series. The problem is the defense in front of him has been bad all year and towards the end of the season he had some games where he didn’t stand on his head. Oilers goalie Mike Smith has actually had quite a surprising season as a 39-year-old veteran on the last legs of his career. With the way McDavid and Draisaitl have been rolling all season, I cannot go against the best player(s) in the league.
Prediction: Oilers 4-2
West Division
#1 Colorado Avalanche (-335) vs. #4 St. Louis Blues (+255)
Season Series: Avalanche: 5-3-0, Blues: 3-5-0
Preview: The Stanley Cup favorite and Presidents’ Trophy winning Avalanche begin their Cup run against the 2018 Stanley Cup Champion St. Louis Blues. The Avs have probably the strongest and deepest team in the 16-team field this year. They’ve dealt with some COVID and injury issues all season but should be healthy rolling into playoffs. This is the biggest series discrepancy based on Vegas lines as well as my Model. The Blues have been inconsistent this season and Binnington hasn’t played to the level he did when they won the Cup in 2018. The addition of Krug in the offseason was supposed to cancel out the loss of Pietrangelo, but it hasn’t been that simple. The Avs are a wagon and even though the Blues have playoff experience, I will rely on the data and the models here.
Prediction: Avalanche 4-1
#2 Vegas Golden Knights (-240) vs. #3 Minnesota Wild (+190)
Season Series: Golden Knights: 3-4-1, Wild: 5-1-2
Preview: Viewed as one of the favorites to win the Cup coming into the season, the Golden Knights have quite the draw in the First Round. Losing the top seed and Presidents’ Trophy with the Avs win last night, Vegas goes from playing a weaker St. Louis team to a young and exciting Minnesota team. To make matters even worse Minnesota has had Vegas’ number all season with only 1 regulation loss for Minnesota in 8 matchups. Vegas is deep at every position and will be interesting to see if they roll out Fluery or Lehner in net, both goalies are more than capable. Minnesota on the other side has been riding the coattails of exciting rookie Kirill “The Thrill” Kaprizov. With stronger than expected defensive and goaltending results they cruised to a 3rd place finish in the division and face a team they have matched up well against all season. There is definite series price value on Minnesota if you are looking for an upset to happen as there always is plenty in the Stanley Cup playoffs. I’m going to ride with the team I am confident can make a Cup run, but would not be surprised either way.
Prediction: Golden Knights 4-3
Current Bets and Notes
My approach for this playoff season is to ride a few Cup futures, bet some teams to make it out of their divisions, and then take any series or series spreads I think have some value. From there I might bet an individual game where I see value on a team or think the other team has a good chance to even the series. I really like taking the Game 1 loser in a series I think will be very evenly matched. I also may hedge some of my futures out if the opportunity presents itself (i.e. Vegas makes it to the Cup, take the other team to win the series and profit either way).
These are the futures I have so far, which will be updated as the playoffs roll on, and will also be on the Sports Betting Picks page:
Excited for the NHL Playoffs! Going to be a roller coaster of emotions with upsets and lots of things you won’t expect, which is what makes it the best sport on earth. Let’s ride this wave!!
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