Joel Bartilotta 
Welcome to the Sunday Funday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a nice sized 10 game main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel and that’s where our focus will be.
Today’s stales is void of any true ace, but because of match-ups there are a handful of pitchers that should perform close to Ace status. At first glance, this looks to be a really fun slate as there are a few different paths we can go
With that being said, let’s dig in to today’s slates!
MLB DFS: The Aces
Robbie Ray ($8k) vs. Philadelphia Phillies – If you’ve read my articles this year, you’ll know my affinity for Ray. He’s completely changed his game plan this season and it’s working out great for him.
Ray so far this year has been a different pitcher. He’s throwing his fastball far more than ever in his career and his slider less than he has in years. This has helped him with his control which has always been his biggest issue. Walks equal more runners on, which in turn opened him up for big innings. His BB/9 is at 2.6 which is by far his lowest of his career.
Now let’s get to why this is a good match up today. Phillies for the season have a near 30% K rate and just a .142 ISO against southpaws. We saw in the last week what lefties can do to them. They made Jon Lester and Patrick Corbin look like Cy Young Candidates. There is a strong chance that Realmuto misses this one which would even more solidify this play.
With all this in mind, my article is for GPP’s. Ray is, and always will be, a stereotypical GPP play. Every time out he has boom or bust potential. Ray is never 100% safe but I really like his chances today.
Huascar Ynoa ($8.4k) vs. Milwaukee Brewers – While there is currently no line on this game, I fully expect the Braves to be heavily favored. Brewers have really struggled this season. Against righties they have a 26.3% K rate and very low power numbers. In the last 10 days they’ve only scored more than 3 runs twice. This is just a very watered down lineup that doesn’t produce.
Today they face off against a pitcher that is rolling. He’s scored 30 or more points in 6 of his 7 starts this season with the last 3 all over 40. While I wouldn’t say that his 28% K rate is elite, it’s definitely well above average. Especially for this pitchers on this slate. Ynoa’s main pitch his slider. If we look at the lineup of the Brewers, this is a pitch that they struggle with. I talk about pitchers having ceiling game opportunities. Today’s match-up with the Brewers provides that.
Alex Wood ($7.5k) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates – This is probably going to be the chalky play due to price and match-up. While I wouldn’t say the Pirates strike out at a high pace vs. lefties, we don’t need many K’s from Wood today due to his price.
I honestly have no clue what happened with his price. In his last outing he scored 49 points and was $8.9k. They dropped his price to $7.5k in a match-up that should be a breeze. Our friends over at DK have him priced accurately at $9.4k.
Wood for the season has a respectable 25% K rate. His ability to limit hard contact (24.3%) and extreme GB rate (63.9%) lead me to believe this is probably the safest play on the board. Especially at his price point.
MLB DFS: The Bats
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chase Anderson – Anderson has not been good this season. He’s pitching to a 5.23 ERA and a 5.25 xFIP. Rarely do you find an xFIP and ERA match like this when they’re over 5. Typically there’s a variance. It means we know that Anderson is trash and we should take advantage of it.
Toronto is a right handed heavy lineup. Anderson is a reverse splits pitcher who is giving up a slugging percentage nearly 100 points higher this season to righties than he is lefties. His main repertoire will be his 4 seamer and change up. It’s a pitch profile that the Blue Jays should handle and handle very well. With pitching so cheap today, you should have no trouble fitting in a 1-4 split of Marcus Semien ($3.4k), Bo Bichette ($3.7k), Vlad Jr ($3.8k), and Teoscar Henandez ($3k). Vlad double dong day.
Boston Red Sox vs. Jose Quintana – I don’t think that Quintana is a bad pitcher. His ERA may say 9, but he’s pitched much better than that as evidenced by his 3.83 xFIP. This is purely due to how good the Red Sox have been against southpaws this year. For the season the Red Sox have a .345 wOBA and 120 wRC+ against lefties. They’ve dominated them.
Quintana is throwing his 4 seamer and curveball about 60% of the time this year. Xander Bogaerts ($3.6k) and JD Martinez ($4.3k) both profile absolutely amazing against this combo. While he’s at the bottom of the order Bobby Dalbec ($2.1k) also profiles very well.
Red Sox should put up a big number and give Quintana an early exit today. The good thing for us is that the Angels bullpen has been dreadful over the past couple of weeks with an xFIP over 5.
Detroit Tigers vs. Kyle Hendricks – Hendricks gave up 4 runs in 5 innings against the Pirates last outing. If ever there was a sign that a pitcher isn’t good, that’s it. Hendricks has really struggled to keep the ball in the park this season. He’s already surrendered 11 homers and we’re only a month and a half into the season. He’s on pace to give up an astronomical amount of dongs.
While the Tigers are far from a powerhouse lineup, like really far from it, they’ve shown some life over the past couple of weeks. They’re no longer the punching bag we used them as at the start of the year. Hendricks is going to rely mostly on his sinker. Akil Baddoo ($2.5k) and Jacoby Jones ($2.1k) both profile well against this pitch. Tigers are a cheap stack and you probably won’t need to go here today but I really like the Tigers chances today of putting up a big number against Hendricks.
MLB DFS: The Wrap Up
This has the makings for an offense packed Sunday. There are only a few pitchers that I feel like we can trust today and some powerhouse offenses that should do well. It’s Sunday so that always means lineups can get a bit funky so make sure you are staying on top of them.
Good luck and hope to see you in the green!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
