Joel Bartilotta 
Welcome to the Thursday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have two slates of MLB DFS to navigate through on Fanduel. One 4 game slate starting at noon and one 5 game slate starting at 8.
Yesterday’s weather caused havoc on today’s Fanduel slates. What was once two nice sized slates turned into two very suspect and smaller slates. We have limited pitching options on both but some offenses that should pack a punch.
With that being said, let’s dig in to today’s slates!
MLB DFS: The Early Slate Aces – LOL
Shane Bieber ($11.3k) vs. Detroit Tigers – Justin’s younger brother has had two ‘below expectations’ outings in a row. In both outings he threw more than 100 pitches in just 4 and 5 IP respectively. Thankfully, today he gets to take on the Detroit Tigers who present a nice bounce back opportunity.
On the season the Tigers are striking out at a 27% clip to righties. Tigers have shown some life at times but I’m going to side with the pitcher that has a 35% K rate on the season. While we should tread with some caution here due to recent performance, I like Bieber to bounce back today.
Spencer Howard ($6.1k) vs. Miami Marlins – This is how bad pitching is during the early slate. Howard is making his second start of the year. He only threw 68 pitches in his first start but a lot of that had to do with control issues. He walked 4 through 3. What has me encouraged though is that he also had 5 K’s in 3 IP. He has a 36% K rate in limited action so far.
Today he’s facing off against a Marlins team that has struggled against righties. They are striking out more than 26% of the time and are not hitting for power. There is a good chance the Marlins are without Garrett Cooper again today which will only solidify this pick. This is purely a GPP play on a day where pitching options are limited.
Pablo Lopez ($8.9k) vs. Philadelphia Phillies – Bryce Harper was placed on the IL yesterday. With Realmuto already on the IL this really downgrades the Phillies lineup.
Lopez has been pretty good this season. He’s pitching to a 3.75 xFIP and doing a great job of inducing soft contact with a 24.4% soft hit rate. While Lopez isn’t known for his strikeout ability, he did K 8 Mets last week. It was a depleted lineup for the Mets, similar to what we’ll see with Phillies.
Today he gets to face off against a team that has a K rate of 26% to his handedness. Phillies have struggled to put up power against righties as well with just a .136 ISO and 86 wRC+. Lopez is one of my favorite pitches on this early slate.
MLB DFS: The Early Slate Bats
Cleveland Indians vs. Matt Boyd – Boyd has had two bad outings in a row. He’s given up 9 ER over his last 11 IP. Of the starters on the early slate he has the highest xFIP at 4.72. While the Indians aren’t that intimidating of an offense, they profile well against Boyd.
Cleveland should be able to throw out 4 righties at the top of the lineup. Over the past several seasons, Boyd has given up a 45% FB rate and .223 ISO to righties. Cesar Hernandez ($3.5k), Amed Rosario($2.8k), Jose Ramirez ($3.9k), and Jordan Luplow ($2.9k) should all have good days.
San Diego Padres vs. Adrian Houser – I expect the Padres to come out guns blazing today after their poor showing last night. While Houser has been pretty good this year with a 3.84 xFIP, he also hasn’t missed many bats. He has a 7.1% whiff rate and only a 20% K rate.
Padres on the season have great numbers against righties. They have a 101 wRC+ and .714 OPS. Tommy Pham ($2.9k) is one of the hottest bats in the game right now and I’d start my stack with him. Jurickson Profar ($2.7k), Jake Cronenworth ($3.2k), and Fernando Tatis ($4.7k) will complete my Padres stack.
Chicago Cubs vs. Tyler Anderson – The Cubbies have the second highest implied run total on the early slate with a 4.01 total. Let’s take a look at why. Today they get to face off against an average lefty in Anderson. Anderson on the season has an xFIP of only 4.05 which isn’t all that bad.
What I’m focused on his is propensity to give up fly balls. His fly ball rate is nearly 41% on the year. Anderson’s main pitch is a 90 mph fastball and that’s something that this Cubs lineup should have no trouble handling.
While PNC Park isn’t known to be a big hitter’s park, between Anderson’s fly ball rate and the power that comes with this Cubs lineup I can see this being a short day for Anderson.
MLB DFS: The Early Slate Wrap Up
Not the best slate for hitting or pitching. We have one near ace but a couple of mid-priced guys that should do well.
MLB DFS: The Main Slate Aces
Shohei Ohtani ($10.3k) vs. Oakland Athletics – A little pricier than I’d like but with his elite K rate and great match-up I’m willing to overlook it. On the season he has a 34.9% K rate and a very respectable 3.58 xFIP. Of all the pitchers going tonight, he also has the lowest contact rate at just 64.6%.
He’s been able to fool batters quite a bit as they’re only swinging at his pitches in the zone 61% of the time. Also the best mark on the slate. He gets to face off against a team that has struggled vs. righties this season. A’s are striking out 26% of the time vs. righties and have a combined wOBA of just .289.
Dylan Cease ($7.5k) vs. Baltimore Orioles – There’s a good chance at some weather during this game so buyer beware. If the forecast changes though I really like this spot for Cease. Mancini is the top bat for the Orioles. Cease’s top secondary pitch to righties is his slider. Mancini has a 38% whiff rate to this pitch.
If he can isolate Mancini’s bat, Cease should have a solid game. The Orioles are hitting for much power against righties. They have just a .647 OPS and 83 wRC+. Cease on the year has a 29% K rate. This is a good spot for him today.
Kolby Allard ($6k) vs. Seattle Mariners – Allard is making a spot start today. I wouldn’t count on many innings from him, but he’s cheap and facing the worst lineup in baseball. Mariners are a team that struggle and should be attacked. They have a 28% K rate to lefties and just abysmal offensive numbers.
At only 6K we won’t need much from Allard. He has upside in this match-up as he has a 29% K rate on the year. If we can get 4-5 innings of work from him and 4-5 k’s with limited damage, he’ll pay off his salary while also allowing us to get whatever bats we want.
MLB DFS: The Main Slate Bats
Chicago White Sox vs. Bruce Zimmermann – White Sox vs. a lefty – check. White Sox vs. a bad lefty – CHECK. As long as the weather cooperates, the White Sox should be the top target. They should be popular, but the match-up is just too juicy to ignore.
White Sox for the season have an .834 OPS and a mind boggling 133 wRC+ against southpaws. The three guys I’m prioritizing in this stack are Yoan Moncada ($3.4k), Jose Abreu ($3.9k), and Yermin Mercedes ($2.6k). All three match-up perfectly to his fastball/change up combo to righties.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Carlos Martinez – Martinez is really struggling this year. While he isn’t giving up many long balls, he’s giving up a ton of contact with a whiff rate of only 7.7% and 14 barrels. His barrels equates to one every few innings. For comparison, Ohtani gives up 1 barrel every 10 innings.
Because Martinez doesn’t give up many homers, you need to go full stack here and hope he gives up a ton of hits that are strung together. Josh Rojas ($2.5k), Ketel Marte ($3.2k), Eduardo Escobar ($3k), and David Peralta ($2.7k) are all very affordable at the top of this lineup. This is an all or nothing stack.
Texas Rangers vs. Chris Flexen – Flexen is very attackable. I’m going to target it him with the lefties of the Rangers. Flexen gives up more than 40% hard contact to lefties, a .222 ISO, and just a 19% K rate.
Joey Gallo’s ($3k) biggest Achilles heel? Strikeouts. With Flexen not being a big strikeout pitcher I see this being a breakout game for Gallo. He homered yesterday for the first time since the 15th. No reason to think he can’t make it two games in a row. My targets in this game are also going to be Nate Lowe ($2.6k) and Willlie Calhoun ($2.8k).
MLB DFS: The Main Slate Wrapup
After the debacle of last night with weather, we really only have one concern with weather today and that’s the prime target game in Chicago. This should be a much higher scoring slate than last night.
Good luck today and tonight and hope to see you in the green!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
