Adam Strangis 
Welcome to the Wednesday, June 2nd edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!
If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Early Slate Breakdown
Happy Hump Day my MLB DFS friends – we have our usual split slate madness with a four game Early Slate and an eight game Main Slate and the hope is the rain holds off around the league so we can get in baseball!
The four game early slate has some solid contest selection which makes me intrigued but there is serious rain risk in both Cincinnati and Cleveland that could make this slate totally unplayable if both games get washed out.
The first likely building block on this slate is Lance Lynn ($10.3K) – the one true “ace” arm on this early slate who will face the same Indians team he battled with earlier this season with mixed results – including a single-digit DFS output game of only 9 DK points but also a 10 strikeout outing, 27 DK point outing which is what we would be paying for here today.
The one issue with Lynn is that you are paying a premium for an arm that gets the wrong side of his splits. On the season, Lynn has just a 21.9% K rate against LHB and he will face 6 lefties in the Cleveland lineup today. Seriously – you are paying over $10K for a 20% K arm against 2/3 of the lineup! Think about that.
Lynn is going to be massive chalk – and maybe, just maybe, this is the spot to attack or at the very least fade. Ignore the 1.37 ERA – focus instead on a 4 xFIP and SIERA which tells you he has been wildly lucky.
Lynn also just pitched on Saturday so asking him to pitch on three days rest today – this could be a spot where we get him A) not at his best and/or B) on a shorter pitch count limit.
We talk about this all the time but short slates are FAR more about strategy than picking best plays and if everyone is going to play Lynn as SP1 – can we pivot or even try to get the leverage against him?
Lynn has only pitched on three days rest once in his career so there is far more we do not know than we can actually discern from past data points but I think that uncertainty coupled with him being chalk, is reason to take a stand.
So building a left-handed Indians stack here with guys like Jose Ramirez, Josh Naylor, and Eddie Rosario could provide interesting leverage and low ownership.
The question then becomes – where do people actually go for arms?
My guess is Madison Bumgarner becomes popular against the depleted Mets line-up but again, this is a spot where I could argue to attack more than using the arm. No pitcher on this slate has given up more hard contact since the start of 2020 than MadBum and in fact, no pitcher pitching on either slate today has a higher metric. Yet – there is a path to him being the chalky SP2 despite the fact he’s arguably the one with the lowest floor.
The right-handed batters have been his issue with a .260 ISO and 43% hard contact rate to go with a near 50% FB rate and while Chase Field’s roof is expected to be closed, I think the Mets bats are more in play than using MadBum. So even here – we go leverage and stack the Mets right-handed batters like Pete Alonso, James McCann, Jonathan Villar, Francisco Lindor and Jose Peraza.
OK eventually we have to get to arms right?
Honestly – there are none I love, barely any I like and I am more than willing to work backward and play bats that give me leverage and simply find the arms that fit. While I do not love either Adbert Alzolay against the loaded Padres line-up or David Peterson against the DBacks – they are likely the only other options you can argue for if you play the fade of Lynn/MadBum as the other arms are either not stretched out or in bad weather spots.
To summarize – let ownership drive some strategic decision making here today. If Lynn/Bumgarner is chalk – stacks the Indians and Mets bats against them because the metrics would tell you, neither arm is worth using them if they are popular.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – Main Slate Breakdown
The Wednesday MLB DFS Main Slate is where the fun begins – because, well it is JON LESTER DAY!
That is right, Mr. Regression gets a start in Sun Trust Park against the Braves and boy oh boy, this is where my day begins. Even with the Braves sporting a line-up without Marcell Ozuna, they are hardly lacking for bats that hammer LHP as all of Dansby Swanson, Austin Riley, Ozzie Albies and Ronald Acuna have .250+ ISO marks against LHP this season and all of Acuna, Albies and Swanson do so with 50% or higher hard contact rates.
The 1-5 Braves stack with Freddie Freeman included is a priority for me today and what I love about this slate is I can do so while still getting arguably my two favorite arms.
Walker Buehler ($10.6K) and Alek Manaoah ($8.4K) were my initial first look pairing as they offered me the ability to attack two high K arms and it was no surprise to see Adam Strangis going down the same route in today’s Starting Rotation.
However – I think there is a similar pairing we can use in the same salary range and that would be to go with Sean Manaea ($9.6K) and Shane McLanahan ($7.6K). This four pitcher player pool is where my focus is tonight and after going through Adam’s breakdown it was good to see we were largely on the same page.
In any combination of these four arms, you are attacking high K ability and that is critical in our MLB DFS builds especially when you have multiple arms with a path to ceiling/success.
Now paying up for both arms and stacking the top 5 in Atlanta may seem like a path that is not doable and will require some salary help with creative dumpster diving but I think that path exists tonight and it does so in a spot we want to go after – and that is with Matt Harvey pitching in Camden Yards.
Now Harvey us only expected to open before turning it over to the Baltimore pen and while we are not going to be able to afford the big bats in Minnesota, there is some serious value here due to injury.
With Mitch Garver hurt last night, it could give us a path to a $2K catcher in Ben Rortvedt and with Buxton/Kepler/Cave all hurt in the OF – we have multiple potential punts in the OF we can use with Kyle Garlick, Trevor Larnach and/or Rob Refsnyder.
This would be the ideal spot to attack a bottom of the order mini Twins stack with value bats, in an elite hitting environment against a bad pitcher and guaranteed 9th inning at bats and you can do so while anchoring to a high octane Braves offense and two stud arms – sign me up!
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up
We have all day MLB DFS Picks and Pivots and what could be better?
The early slate is going to be far more strategy based than a normal slate would be but I think we have the chance to attack some spots that will be chalk and frankly, the metrics say they should not be.
The main slate is far more straightforward and going “double aces” with a 5 man Braves stack is a path that you knew Picks and Pivots would be on with Jon Lester toeing the rubber in Atlanta tonight.
Good luck tonight all! Let’s keep that hot streak rolling! Come join the Win Daily Sports Team – grab a Gold Membership and take advantage of all the tools, articles, and expert coaching we can give you to make you a consistent winner in DFS.
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