Gary Gustafson 
Welcome to the Thursday, June 3rd edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!
If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Early Slate Breakdown
Welcome into another split slate day of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we have a full day of baseball which kicks off at 12:20 PM EST with a four game early slate that is free from weather concerns.
If you are playing this four-game early slate, especially in tournaments, these are the types of slates where you need to take stands and think strategically as we have a clear ace in Gerrit Cole and a game in Coors Field.
There is a path here today where you can go with Cole and a game stack in Coors by using a punt SP2 like LHP Tucker Davidson ($4.9K) who is being called up by the Braves to make a spot start against the Nationals. Davidson made a spot start earlier in the year against the Mets, striking out 5 on his way to 14 DK points, and considering this is one of the Braves top prospects who has a 35% K rate in AAA – the path to hit value is clear and I would argue he is one of the keys to unlocking this early slate.
However, on a short slate like we have here – I would argue it is not the time to play it straight. If you go the route I outlined above and it “hits” – how do you actually make waves in a GPP? You are banking on picking the “right bats” in a Coors Game stack and hoping Brock Holt outscores Josh Fuentes as an example.
If you are playing cash games, Cole/Davidson and Coors but if you are playing GPP – screw that noise, let’s get weird.
The New York Yankees bats have been ice cold, but I think in this spot against LHP Ryan Yarbrough, they have the potential for a multi-HR type of day. Yarbrough has surrendered a .200 ISO and 40% HC rate to RHB this season and has given up 3 HR’s in two of his last three games with all of them coming from the right side.
Yarbrough relies heavily on his cutter, nearly 50% of the time – a pitch that Aaron Judge hammers to the tune of a .438 ISO and a 73% HC rate with an average exit velocity over 100 MPH! If you are calling HR shots today – Judge is #1 on my list.
The other players that profile well here are DJ LeMahieu and Gio Urshela who have .300 and .205 ISO marks and 40% HC rates against the change-up with is what Yarbrough throws a third of the time to RHB.
The Rays lefty does not get blown up often so this is less a 5 man stack and more a 3-4 man balanced stack approach where you are going HR hunting with the Yankee right-handed hitters.
You are probably thinking – what is so weird about the Yankees stack? Seems like a logical pivot off Coors Field right?
Well, what if I argued we stay here and game stack this spot and go with Tampa Bay Rays bats against RHP Gerrit Cole.
Oh – now, you are listening, aren’t you?
Listen, Cole is the clear top arm on the slate and his massive K upside is going to likely put him at 80-90% ownership even in GPP’s due to the lack of other options.
Personally, I think simply fading him is not enough of a leverage move – I think if you go this route of fading him, you need to double down and use Rays bats against him.
Yes, I am Mr. Tampa Bay when it comes to MLB DFS – no team has won me more money this year – but this is not blind loyalty, this is strategy. I talk about this every single day – there has been no better offense in baseball the last two weeks than Tampa Bay and if we think they are ignored in DFS on most days, imagine what is going to happen with Cole on the mound.
On a four game slate you are never going to find offenses that are single digit owned that are this talented up and down – so take your shot.
Take the names out of it for a second.
What if I told you there was a pitcher who has a HR/9 rate of over 2 per game against LHB at home since 2020, who has a .225 allowed ISO mark against LHB since the start of last season with a 50% fly ball rate and a 41% HC rate?
What if I told you there was an offense that has a team ISO over .200 against RHP since the start of last season with each of the top four in the projected line-up sporting a .200+ ISO mark?
Guys – that is the Rays against Cole. Seriously – take the fact its Gerrit Cole out of your mind – if I told you the Rays LHB were facing an arm who has given up a .225 ISO and 40% + hard contact rate in Yankee Stadium’s short porch, you’d be all over it on metrics alone.
Now can the Rays strike out 10+ times in this game – abso-frickin-lutely. Can they strike out a ton while also hammering multiple home runs? Also, yes. They do it all the dang time.
This is why I think you take the approach of fading Cole but doing so with a script that the Rays get to him for HR’s. Listen, if Cole is off and running and mowing hitters down – you are cooked.
If a 90% owned Cole comes out like he did 3 starts ago against Texas and gives up hard contact, HR’s, and puts up single-digit DK points – and you have the bats who did the damage at no ownership, well guess who is sniffing an early takedown!
See you at the top. Oh by the way – Austin Meadows homer today. Book it.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – Main Slate Breakdown
As we pivot (see what I did there) to the Main Slate we have 8 games to choose from in our MLB DFS picks and this slate to me feels far more “typical.”
The pitching options on this slate are super-condensed and very top-heavy with Yu Darvish and Lance Lynn standing out at the top as Adam Strangis outlined in Starting Rotation.
I will add one other name to that list in Taijuan Walker ($10.3K) who has seen his price just SKYROCKET. This guy was $7K a month ago and now we are paying the market price for him after he continues to be one of the best offseason acquisitions for the NY Mets.
Walker came back off the IL and dominated the Braves with 8K’s and just 2 hits allowed and will pitch in San Diego tonight against a Padres team that could be without Fernando Tatis Jr. with an oblique injury and Tommy Pham & Ha-Seong Kim who left Wednesday’s game after a scary collision that required both players to leave the game and get CT scans.
I think there will be serious sticker shock on Walker tonight but pitching in San Diego against a potentially banged-up squad, could make him a high-end low owned pivot to pair with either Darvish or Lynn tonight.
Going some variation of “double aces” still leaves us with solid salary options and I think it gives us the chance to game stack some interesting spots with my favorite being Arizona/Milwaukee.
RHP Seth Frankoff will pitch for Arizona, fresh off his 7 ER outing in just 5 innings and he has now given up 12 ER in his last 9 innings. Frankoff has been dreadful against LHB with a monster .286 ISO mark and this Brewers team sets up to be super left-handed heavy with Wong, Voeglbach, Yelich, Narvaez, Shaw and Bradley Jr.
This is kind of a worst case scenario for Frankoff with the splits lining up as they do and after reportedly “tipping pitches” last game, let’s not pretend like the Brewers are not licking their chops to get the same match-up the Cardinals just hammered.
Update: It is not confirmed but it sounds like Jon Duplantier may start instead of Frankoff. Literally nothing changes. Duplantier has a 5+ xFIP in his career at the Major League level and a 45% HC rate and is essentially a two pitch pitcher with limited swing and miss stuff.
The Arizona bats on the other side of this game have similar splits appeal against LHP Brett Anderson as this Arizona team has some eye-popping metrics against lefties.
Carson Kelly (.310 ISO), Ketel Marte (.455 ISO) and Eduardo Escobar (.286 ISO) have all hit lefties and hit them for power this year. If we dig deeper into pitch profile, Anderson throws his sinker nearly 50% and guess who hammers that pitch – all three of the guys I just mentioned!
Kelly and Marte have .250+ ISO marks with 40% HC rates but it is Escobar who is the big dog with a monster .475 ISO and 58% HC rate. One other name – punt OF Tim Locastro ($2.3K) who has a .368 ISO and 44% HC rate against that pitch type.
Double aces and a game stack you say? Sounds like Picks and Pivots gold!
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up
We have a full day of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots and what could be better? The truth is, these slates played wildly different with the early slate being more about strategy and the main slate played more traditionally.
In both cases, we have clear top spots but I also think we have logical pivots that can make our builds different and take us to the top of the GPP leaderboard!
Good luck tonight all! Let’s keep that hot streak rolling! Come join the Win Daily Sports Team – grab a Gold Membership and take advantage of all the tools, articles, and expert coaching we can give you to make you a consistent winner in DFS.
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