Joel Bartilotta 
Welcome to the Tuesday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a massive 15 game main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.
After last night’s underwhelming 3 game slate, we’re back to a full load today. There are going to be a ton of options on both the pitching and hitting front. The slate today at first glance looks to be a ton of fun as some of our favorite targets are on the slate.
Let’s dig in to today’s slates!
MLB DFS: The Aces
Tyler Glasnow ($11k) vs. Washington Nationals – Glasnow is the top arm on the slate and he gets a solid match-up against a Nationals team that has not been great against righties. They have just a .136 ISO and a wOBA of .299.
We know that Glasnow has elite K numbers. In the match-up against the Nats today there should be some upside for him. Glasnow throws his slider more than 30% of the time to both righties and lefties. Not a single projected starter tonight for the Nats has a whiff rate less than 25% against the slider, with most being over 30%. My bet is that Glasnow ends up being the highest scoring pitcher on the slate.
Chris Bassitt ($9.7k) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks – Bassitt has had 2 sub-par outings on the year, with one being his last time out. After his first “poor” outing in which he still scored nearly 20 points, he went on to have a dominating performance against the Angels.
My hope is that his last outing brings his ownership down a bit because the match-up for him tonight screams bounce back. The Diamondbacks on the year have not been good against righties. They haven’t hit for any power with an ISO of .136 and wOBA of .293.
Bassitt is the sixth highest salaried pitcher tonight on FD but he has the potential to be right up there with Glasnow in points and he comes at a $1,300 savings.
Pablo Lopez ($9.6k) vs. Colorado Rockies – I love attacking the Rockies when they play away from Coors. If it wasn’t for playing half their games in the top hitter’s ballpark, they would be the worst offense in the league. Away from Coors they have a team ISO of .092 and an OPS of .563. Those are just awful numbers.
Thankfully for us we get to attack them today with a pitcher that has been pretty good this year. On the year Lopez has a 25% K rate and an xFIP of 3.84. While neither number is elite, they are both very respectable and with a match-up like he has tonight, he should be able to end with a great final line.
There are definitely better pitchers tonight than the 2 of 3 that I listed. I have concern with them though.
Bieber is taking on a Cardinals team that hasn’t been striking out as much to righties as they were at the start of the year and at $11.5k I don’t think he pays off his salary tonight.
Carlos Rodon takes on the Blue Jays and I don’t like targeting the Blue Jays, especially against lefties. The same goes for Robbie Ray. He’s been great this year and I normally write him up any chance I get. But he’s facing the White Sox today and the White Sox smash lefties.
MLB DFS: The Bats
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Jon Lester – I’m not going to get too in depth with this pick because I have no doubt Brian will in his Picks and Pivots today. Rays are simply too cheap for the match-up today. Mike Brosseau ($2.5k), Randy Arozarena ($3.4k), and Manual Margot ($3k) are all in a great position to pay off their salary tonight. Lester just gives up way too much contact and is giving up a ton of fly balls to boot.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Drew Smyly – Don’t look now but the Phillies are finally healthy. Tonight they get to face off against a pitcher that has just not been good. On the year Smyly has a 5.15 xFIP and a near 50% hard hit rate.
While he has been very poor to righties with a .337 wOBA and .241 ISO against him, he’s been even worse to lefties with a .420 wOBA and .373 ISO. This brings Bryce Harper ($3.4k) back into play. While I love Realmuto ($3.3k) I’m most likely going to go w/ a back end of the lineup stack as Rhys Hoskins ($3.3k), Jean Segura ($3.3k), and Andrew McCutchen ($3.5k) all have great numbers against Smyly’s secondary pitches.
Oakland Athletics vs. Jon Duplantier – In a very small sample size this season, Duplantier has quite simply been overmatched. Against the Cardinals he gave up 4 runs in 4 innings and then against the Brewers he gave up 5 in 4.
The match-up tonight doesn’t get any easier for him as he’s taking on the AL West leading Athletics. To make matters worse he goes into an AL park and now has to face a DH vs. having a pitcher bat. Mark Canha ($3.7k), Tony Kemp ($2.1k), Matt Olson ($3.9k), and Jed Lowrie ($3.1k) are all in line to have great days.
***Bonus Stack Alert – Since my write up of the Rays was brief and there are so many solid match-ups for hitters tonight I’m going to give a bonus stack.
Baltimore Orioles vs. David Peterson – I don’t think Peterson is bad as his last outing. While he didn’t make it out of the first, he was also pitching on 9 days’ rest. There was some rust involved in the poor performance. My focus tonight with the Orioles will be batters from the right side of the plate.
Peterson has really been able to limit power to lefties with just a .098 ISO against and a 26% hard hit rate. Righties however have an ISO of .254 and a 46% hard hit rate. If his sinker doesn’t sink tonight he’s going to have a hard time keeping the ball in the park. Guys like Trey Mancini ($3.2k), Anthony Santander ($2.6k), and Ryan Mountcastle ($2.9k) all profile extremely well against Peterson’s pitch mix.
MLB DFS: The Wrap Up
Picking the right offense tonight will be key. There looks to be more than a handful of teams that are in line to put up big numbers. Detroit, Boston, and Cincinnati all look to be at risk with major rain concerns.
Good luck and hope to see you in the green tonight!
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