Gary Gustafson 
Welcome to the Wednesday, June 9th edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!
If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather to walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!
Main Slate Breakdown
Welcome to Wednesday’s MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we have a 12 game Main Slate that sets up perfectly for GPP play with some really intriguing strategic decisions sitting before us.
The decisions really start and end at pitcher because for all the strong names – there are seemingly more reasons NOT to play guys than to roster them. My man Adam Strangis does an incredible job with today’s deep dive in Starting Rotation so I do not want to simply regurgitate his analysis but rather, to expand on it in the context of our roster builds.
The three highest-priced arms on this slate in Gerrit Cole, Lance Lynn and Alex Manoah all have elite swing and miss ability which we need when building our MLB DFS lineups but they have serious questions marks that could make them under-owned.
Adam did an amazing job of outlining Cole’s issues and match-up and that video/interview from yesterday I think will be mainstream enough to impact his ownership. Listen – the metrics would tell you Cole is the best K arm on the slate by a considerable margin – the narrative though is what is going to keep people away. If Cole is chalk you can make a clear case to fade, but if he does not get the ownership he should – it could be an elite GPP spot.
The next two here are where I think it could get really interesting as Lance Lynn and Alek Manoah face off against each other and two strong offenses in Toronto and Chicago.
Let’s start with Lance Lynn ($10.4K) – from a pure metrics perspective, you could argue that he sets up well with 6 projected right-handed batters in the Jays line-up which plays to Lynn’s splits with a 32% K rate to RHB versus just a 21.7% rate to LHB.
Lynn relies heavily on his cutter to right-handed batters, over a third of the time, and every single bat RHB in the Jays lineup has a .150 or lower ISO mark against that pitch type. Lynn thrives on limiting that hard contact/power and with a .093 ISO and just a 28% hard contact rate to RHB, this is actually a spot I think he could do well in.
I know picking on the Jays is not something we ever want to set out to do, but the truth is, SP’s have had success and high K output in this spot recently.
- Carlos Rodon – 20 DK and 8 K’s
- Luis Garcia – 29 DK points and 8 K’s
- Zack Greinke – 27 DK points and 3 K’s
- Pablo Lopez – 19 DK points and 9 K’s
Those are four of the last five arms to take on the Jays and so there is a path here for Lynn to have a ceiling game and I simply do not think there will be any appetite to pay $10K for him against Toronto’s line-up which makes him really interesting for tournaments.
Alek Manoah ($9.7K) was super chalk last game against the Marlins and proceeded to go out and get his teeth kicked in by Miami after his electric MLB debut against the Yankees where he struck out 7 batters in 6 innings.
If you played him last game, every reason still exists today – the elite pedigree, the insane swing and miss stuff and guess what – all those who played him likely won’t today because they remember the Miami HR derby. So now I can get all that K ability at a fraction of the ownership? Sign me up!
Now, maybe people see the White Sox and have the same reaction they did with Lynn – but the reality is, Chicago has been a team we can and should attack with right-handed pitching!
The projected line-up tonight has just a .168 ISO mark against RHP since the start of last season, with a 50% GB rate and a 24% K rate so there are frankly more reasons to attach them then I think people will realize.
Right-handed arms have seen success against the Sox this year – both at the ace level and in the fringe range. True top-tier arms like Cole, Gray and Bieber (2x) have gone for 25+ DK points with 7-8 K’s per game so the ceiling is there for the Jays young right-hander.
Even mid-range arms have seen success with guys like Zach Plesac (24), Brad Keller (21), Brady Singer (19), Casey Mize (19) and Trsiton McKenzie (18) all having strong games.
The reality is, Manoah is an arm with a 40% K rate in the minors who had one bad start – one – do not let that overshadow the ceiling this kid has!
My preferred path tonight is to anchor to one of these top-end K arms and pair them with Casey Mize ($6.8K) as my SP2 as Adam mentioned, he is simply far too cheap.
Now – if we pay up for at least one high-end K arm, how can we get high-powered stacks to build around them?
Let’s see – checks notes see a left-handed pitcher who gets smoked by right-handed batters and a team that is not priced up (again). Can you guess?
Yeah, hello Tampa Bay Rays against LHP Patrick Corbin!
Literally, every reason we went here yesterday is back on the table as Corbin is giving up a .251 ISO and 44% HC rate to RHB this season with 2.5 HR/9. So all the same cast of characters is back in play with Randy Arozarena, Manuel Margot, Mike Zunino, Yandy Diaz and Mike Brosseau getting the splits advantage.
If you watched that game like most of us in the WDS Discord did last night, this was a game the Rays had an opportunity to just carry us to the top but they left 12 men on base and had multiple HR’s go just foul including a grand slam from Margot that Kyle Schwarber caught over the wall on the foul side of the pole.
Literally feet difference in the other direction and that stack drops a massive number last night.
Tonight they get an elite starting spot and because they knocked Lester out early on Tuesday, you get one of the worst bullpens here tonight that was forced into extended duty and has to turn around and do it again this evening.
I am not going to wax poetic here – you guys now the deal by now – the Rays will be single digit owned, they can strike out with the best of them but they also have crazy power up and down the line-up and I am going right back to them tonight as a core stack.
The other spot I love here tonight is similar – taking the right-handed Reds bats against LHP Brett Anderson.
Anderson has given up a .216 ISO and 54% hard contact rate to RHB and has to face a Reds line-up in Great American Smallpark that is getting healthier and is loaded with RHB.
Nick Castellanos and Eugenio Suarez are prime plays in a mini-stack here – both of whom absolutely destroy the sinker from LHP which is what Anderson throws about half of the time. Casty has a .370 ISO and 70% HC rate while Geno has a .250 ISO mark and 73% HC rate and both players have 90% contact rates with an average distance hit over 315 feet. Yikes.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up
This slate for me is one where I think our MLB DFS Picks and Pivots tournament outlook can give us an advantage, especially as we pick our arms at the top end as we could see ownership really help us find a low-owned SP1 up top.
Going high-low at pitcher will give us a path to big time bats and that is where a Rays/Reds stack comes into play against two left-handed arms in Corbin/Anderson who give up boatloads of power to right-handed bats!
Good luck tonight all! Let’s keep that hot streak rolling! Come join the Win Daily Sports Team – grab a Gold Membership and take advantage of all the tools, articles, and expert coaching we can give you to make you a consistent winner in DFS.
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
