Joel Bartilotta 
Welcome to the Friday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a massive 15 game main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.
For a slate as big as today, pitching options are somewhat scarce. The top pitcher on the slate is in Coors and the second “best” pitcher can no longer use spider tack. That said, the goal today will be to bring you 3 pitchers and 3 offenses that will help you get to the top of the leader boards.
Let’s dig in to today’s slates!
MLB DFS: The Aces
Robbie Ray ($11k) vs. Baltimore Orioles – This pick doesn’t give me the warm and fuzzies as the Orioles have actually been really good against lefties. But Ray has been one of the most consistent and dominant pitchers this year.
Ray changed his game plan this season to throw considerably less curveballs and more fastballs. The dividends have definitely been there as his walks are at a career low. While he still is prone to the home run ball, not having meaningless runners on via the walk means most of these are solo shots.
This is the most expensive we’ve seen Ray all year. His price up due to his recent performance though. Over the past 30 days he has a 36% K rate. He’s more expensive than I’d like, but we’re getting a pitcher that has elite K ability and that’s what we look for in DFS.
Corbin Burnes ($9.5k) vs. Colorado Rockies – While Ray is the most expensive he’s been all year, Burnes is the cheapest he’s been all year. At only $9.5k, we’re getting a steep discount on someone who has a 41% K rate on the year.
Rockies are a team that we can attack. After Woodruff gave up 5 in the first last night, he settled down to blank the Rockies for the next 4 innings. There’s always risk to using a starter in Coors but between Burnes’ whiff rate of nearly 19% and his high ground ball rate of around 51%, I think he’s set up nicely to do well in Coors. Again, not safe due to the environment but I like Burnes to be one of the top pitchers on the slate.
Jose Berrios ($9k) vs. Texas Rangers – Outside of his start against the Royals a couple of weeks ago, Berrios has been pretty good this year and he has seen a nice uptick in his performance of late.
The lineup that he’s projected to face today has a K rate of more than 26% to righties on the year with an ISO south of .150. This sets up nicely for him to have a repeat performance of his last outing where he struck out 8 through 7.
One of Berrios’ favorite pitchers to throw is his curveball. Rangers, for the most part, struggle with this pitch. Only Nate Lowe has a wOBA greater than .300 to this pitch this year.
MLB DFS: The Bats
Atlanta Braves vs. Carlos Martinez – Braves somewhat under-performed last night. It wasn’t for a lack of trying though as they did put a ton of runners on. Where they struggled last night was with runners on as they hit just .200 with RISP. Hoping that was just a blip and they continue tonight with putting runners on. One or two balls drop and last night would have been a different story for the offense.
They get a great match-up tonight against a pitcher who is a shell of his former self. Don’t let his last outing fool you. Martinez for the year has been bad. His splits have been pretty neutral so I’m not overly concerned with platoon advantages here.
In looking at his pitch mix of mostly fastballs, sliders, and cutters the guy I’m locking in first is Acuna ($4.5k). He’s expensive but has smashed fastballs and sliders all year. Almonte ($2.6k) profiles well too and his low salary will help balance out what you’re paying for Acuna.
Minnesota Twins vs. Mike Foltynewicz – Folty has been brutal this year. He’s been especially brutal in his last couple of outings. The Twins get to face off against a guy that has a mid-5 xFIP who is also giving up just a ton of hard contact with a rate of 47%.
With Folty, we really want to attack from the left side of the plate (he’s bad to both sides though.) To lefties this year he’s giving up a .443 ISO and a 46.5% FB rate. The two main guys I’m going to build around tonight are Polanco ($3.6k) and Alex Kirilloff ($3k). Any Twins stack should have those guys squarely in the middle.
Los Angeles Angels vs. Jose Urena – Really love this spot for the Angels tonight. Urena has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball over the past 30 days. He has a 6.75 xFIP and just a 5.8% K rate over that span. He’s someone that just doesn’t miss any bats.
The Angels have a bunch of guys in the lineup that match-up really well to Urena’s pitch mix. Urena has been throwing his sinker about 48% of the time this year. Ohtani ($4k) and Walsh ($3.6k) have slugging %’s greater than .640 to that pitch this year. With them both having the platoon advantage, I’d start my builds with them.
Urena hasn’t made it past 6 innings since the start of May. The good news for us is that the Tigers have the worst bullpen over the past 2 weeks.
MLB DFS: The Wrap Up
Pitching is going to be tough tonight, but we have acouple of elite K guys in Burnes and Ray who should do well tonight. The late night hammer of the Angels may lead you to the top!
Good luck and hope to see you in the green tonight!
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