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NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 06/23

The Phoenix Suns came away with a buzzer beater to steal Game 2 from Paul George and the LA Clippers, after their star missed game-clinching free throws. Tonight, we see the Atlanta Hawks face off against the Milwaukee Bucks, who are fresh off a series win versus the Brooklyn Nets in the second round. While most have the Eastern Conference Finals wrapped up before they even begin, this series will be much tougher than most think it will be – to the point where Atlanta may come out on top. It’s only a small NBA slate with a showdown, but it’s still Wet Wednesday’s edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

The first game of a series is always a good time to get a feel of how the rotations will play out, especially since both teams come into completely different matchups than their previous opponents. One thing that won’t change throughout this series is the need for both Giannis Antetokounmpo and Trae Young in your lineups – daily. Sporting a 34.5% usage rate through 12 games in these NBA Playoffs, the Hawks will only go as far as Trae Young will carry them; the face of the franchise is averaging 29.1 PPG to go along with 10.4 APG, logging over 38 MPG in what seems to be a must-win environment on a nightly basis. On the flipside, Giannis Antetokounmpo may see a few less minutes tonight than the previous stretch of games considering the Bucks were down 0-2 to the Nets, but his ceiling remains the highest on the NBA slate: Giannis carries a 32.4% usage rate heading into the Eastern Conference Finals, in addition to having 30 or more points and 11 or more rebounds in six of the Bucks’ last seven games.

For our utility spots in our NBA lineups, look no further than the secondary scorers for the Bucks, including: Khris Middleton, Jrue Holiday, and Brook Lopez. Lopez will continue to log a consistent 25 or more minutes in a matchup versus Clint Capela, if not even more than what we saw against Brooklyn, while both Middleton and Jrue round out the Bucks’ Core 4. PJ Tucker was crucial on “defense” for the Bucks against Kevin Durant (I’m laughing as I’m typing this) but look for a combination of Forbes/Connaughton early in this series, as the Hawks are a much less skillful group with the ball in their hands, with the exception of Trae Young. For the Hawks, Bogdan Bogdanovic is severely banged up, so look for both Danilo Gallinari and Lou Williams to log more minutes in the series’ first two games, alongside Kevin Huerter, while the one player I am much lower on than the field is none other than John Collins: while Collins thrived against Tobias Harris and the 76ers, grabbing double-digit rebounds in five of the series’ seven games, the matchup against Giannis couldn’t be worse, while Lopez and Capela go head to head; look for Collins, who averaged 3.1 fouls per game this season, to be in trouble in the early stages before making adjustments later in the series to remain on the court.

Value Gems: Check the projection model.

I will continue to stress the importance of having both the projection model and cheat sheet open when building NBA lineups for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays.

You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost

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