Brian Tulloch 
Welcome to the Saturday, July 3rd edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!
If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather to walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!
Early Slate Breakdown
Welcome into a split slate Saturday of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we start the day with a solid 6 game slate that has high strikeout arms at all tiers and some sneaky offenses that are in strong spots.
While the top-tier arms are certainly playable, I am in lockstep with Adam after peaking at Starting Rotation – we have two under-priced high K options in Tarik Skubal and Kyle Muller that allow us really to capture upside without paying a premium.
Paying down for this duo allows me to pay up for bats and that starts with the San Diego Padres against RHP Zach Eflin in Philadelphia. Eflin is giving up a 44% hard contact rate and matching 44% fly-ball rate to left-handed batters this season and his slider/sinker combination match-up perfectly with the batted ball profiles of Eric Hosmer, Jake Cronenworth and Trent Grisham. Ideally, you can work the left-handed bats here around the stars in the middle with Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado and anchor to arguably the most talented offense on this early slate.
The Reds left-handed bats are where I would correlate as they face Adbert Alzolay who is giving up a .311 ISO and 50% HC rate to left-handed batters and has to face them in Great American Ballpark where we know the ball can fly.
Jesse Winker profiles extremely well here against the slider/sinker tendencies of Alzolay and I would argue he is one of the premium bats on this early slate with massive ISO and HC rates against both the Cubs pitch types to left-handed batters.
If the Padres game gets rained out or if it’s too risky – I think staying in this Cincinnati game with a game stack of bats could work well. Tyler Mahle has extreme splits with a .223 ISO mark to right-handed batters this season and his primary offering, the slider, which he throws 45% of the time to RHB has been hit to the tune of a .260 ISO.
Patrick Wisdom has serious numbers against this pitch type with a massive .353 ISO and average distance traveled of 399 feet off this pitch type from RHP. Sneaky HR call of the day right here with the winds blowing out in GABP and a massive hitter’s umpire.
Main Slate Breakdown
The 7 game MLB DFS Pick and Pivots Main Slate is far less forgiving with arms as Clayton Kershaw is essentially a must-play on a slate without a single other even average option. Due to the fact Kershaw is a near lock button play, it will mean a lot of similar lineup builds and constructions so we need to think a little strategically on this Main Slate.
One way to gain leverage – use the arms in Coors Field, specifically a high ground ball arm like Kyle Freeland ($5.9K). Over his last 10 home starts, Freeland has shown the boom or bust nature with 2 starts of 20+ DK points and 4 games where he went full negative (Ponce De Leon style).
Freeland is coming off back to back strong outings with 7 K’s in each game which is intriguing considering we typically view him as a high ground ball pitcher so these swings and misses give him more wiggle room if he does get himself in trouble. At under $6K tonight – he could pay off in a big way and give us leverage on Cardinals chalk night.
With Garret Richards on the mound and in the midst of a disastrous run of starts that have coincided with the sticky stuff crackdown – I am going right back to the Oakland Athletics and attacking a pitcher who has been absolutely waxed the last 4 starts. The A’s offense is priced fairly and with 50% hard contract rates to hitters from both sides of the plate – do not be afraid to mix and match the lefties and righties for the A’s here as a full 5 man stack could pay off in GPP’s.
The other mini stack I love here tonight is the Los Angeles Dodgers and a lot of that has to do with the pricing as we can get Cody Bellinger ($3.7K) at a significant discount against RHP Pablo Espino who is giving up a 45% HC rate to LHB. This is a spot where the Dodgers lefties like Bellinger, Gavin Lux and Max Muncy can allow you to mini-stack the splits and then attack the Nationals bullpen with Espino still not fully stretched out.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up
These two MLB DFS slates today play very differently in that the early slate has a plethora of arms and multiple solid stacks which allow you to play it more as “best plays.”
The Main Slate though in my mind is far more strategic and I am going to be heavily interested in ownership. With Kershaw feeling like a must have, I think builds will look and feel the same and so finding leverage off the chalk bats, and pivot stacks, is going to be my primary focus this evening.
Good luck tonight all! Let’s keep that hot streak rolling! Come join the Win Daily Sports Team – grab a Gold Membership and take advantage of all the tools, articles, and expert coaching we can give you to make you a consistent winner in DFS.
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