NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Xfinity Series Atlanta 7/10/21

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Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop for the Xfinity series for the 2021 season! If you’ve been with us before then you know the drill, but if you are new the WinDaily Sports or to my NASCAR content, welcome! I break down the field each week and give you my favorite plays for each race in three different price categories.

Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles since they are the only site with contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play.

Welcome (back) to Atlanta NASCAR! This is the first time the series has come back to a track for the second time in 2021. It is nice to have some stats from this season to go off when building lineups even though there are some drivers in different cars.

Earlier this season Martin Truex Jr. dominated this race but finished 2nd to Justin Allgaier ($10,600). This week Kyle Busch ($14,000) is in the #54 car that Truex drove to P2 but he will start from the pole and should dominate the early part of this race. This week DK did a good job pricing up Busch and making us decide to use him or not (more to come on that). Another Joe Gibbs car, Harrison Burton ($9,000) also ran really well here in the Spring and should be in for another solid day on Saturday.

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

Justin Allgaier ($10,600)

Starting Position: 8th

Allgaier may be from Illinois, but it seems like Atlanta is his second home. In his last nine races at Atlanta, Allgaier has one finish outside the top 11 and has four straight finishes of 6th or better. I think Allgaier will give Busch a run for the win on Saturday as he did with Truex in March.

Kyle Busch ($14,000)

Starting Position: 1st

Kyle Busch is expensive this week, good! It should keep his ownership down and make you have to decide if you can afford to play him (spoiler alert: YOU CAN). It’s not pretty, but you can build a three-dominator lineup with Busch in it. If you don’t love stars and scrubs builds you can definitely go with a two dominator build and get a little more balanced. I do think Busch leads a good amount of laps on Saturday and probably wins, but he is ranked 3rd in this tier in my opinion. It will take a lot for him to pay off his salary and I think that both Gragson and Allgaier have easier paths doing that. Busch does have six top 2 finishes in his last eight Atlanta races and has won his last two races here in the Xfinity Series

Josh Berry ($10,000)

Starting Position: 28th

Berry has run this #31 car for Jordan Anderson twice this season and both have resulted in top 10’s. In both races in this car Berry has started higher than 30th, now this week he starts 28th, but that doesn’t change his ability to get a top 10 again. Earlier this season while driving for JRM, Berry wrecked early and finished 38th so we can’t truly count that race.

Noah Gragson ($9,200)

Starting Position: 9th

Gragson is another JRM driver who has run well in every race he’s been in at Atlanta. In the Spring, Gragson started 30th but managed to finish 4th while running nearly 72% (117 laps) of the race in the top 15. Gragson has never finished outside the top 10 in his three career races here in Atlanta and has two straight top 5’s.

Austin Cindric ($11,000 – P4) is always a driver to consider and if you plan on running multiple lineups he is someone you can look to as a pivot off Busch. Cindric does not have great track history at Atlanta with only two top tens and an average finish of 11.5. It’s hard to doubt Cindric any week with the equipment and skill he possesses but I just think there may be better options for the salary this week.

Other Options: AJ Allmendinger ($10,300 – P3), Sam Mayer ($9,400 – P22), Harrison burton ($9,000 – P5), Ty Dillon ($9,700 – P30)

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Jeremy Clements ($7,000)

Starting Position: 19th

Before 2019 this team did not run well here in Atlanta, but things changed in the last three seasons for Clements. Over his last three starts here Clements has managed three straight top 20 finishes and had his best career finish of 12th here in the Spring. Before having problems at Road America last week, Clements had rattled off three straight top 15’s as well. Clements actually comes in as the third-best FPTS/$ play on this slate behind Kyle and our top value play.

Santino Ferrucci ($8,000)

Starting Position: 25th

Ferrucci only has one start here at Atlanta and it was a 15th place finish in the Spring this year. In his five career Xfinity races, Ferrucci has only finished below 15th once so a top 15 seems very likely for the 26 team on Saturday. Ferrucci is relatively expensive, but if you are running two dominator builds he is a great low-owned pivot off guys like Brandon Jones, Justin Haley, or Daniel Hemric.

Brett Moffitt ($7,800)

Starting Position: 20th

Moffitt is a driver that nobody seems to play weekly, but he usually seems to have a good day. In his last six races, Moffitt has outscored his projection in half of those races. Earlier this season at Atlanta, Moffitt finished last (40th), but that was because he got involved in a wreck on lap 39. Moffitt was set for a solid day in that race running all 39 laps inside the top 15. In his only other race at Atlanta in the Xfinity Series, Moffitt finished 14th.

Other Options: Brandon Jones ($8,800 – P13), Daniel Hemric ($8,600 – P2), Justin Haley ($8,700 – P7)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

1. Carson Ware (4,7000 – P26): Ware is the top FPTS/$ play on this slate and is too cheap for the equipment he is in
2. Jeffrey Earnhardt ($6,900 – P37): Highest priced value play, but has huge upside starting so far back
3. Colby Howard ($6,100 – P36): Howard has great track history at Atlanta (avge finish of 18th) and starts far enough back to destroy value today.
4. Landon Cassill ($6,800 – P21): Consistent and safe driver who will probably finish around where he starts and make value
5. Bayley Currey ($5,900 – P39): Similar to Earnhardt he starts at the back and has some upside for the price.
6. David Starr ($5,100 – P35): Starr is not a pretty play, but he is cheap and has top 25 upside on Saturday.
7. Jade Buford ($5,400 – P27): Buford has been running well of late, and could be a top 20 threat if things break his way.

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