Gary Gustafson 
Welcome to the Friday, July 16th edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!
If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather to walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!
Main Slate Breakdown
Welcome back from the All-Star Break my MLB DFS Picks and Pivots friends and family as we enter back into our first slate of the second half of the season where we have 14 games scheduled with rain concerns and potential COVID related issues in NY/BOS to watch for! Welcome back baseball.
When looking over this slate, we have a ton of landmines – we have rain, COVID, double-header games, and a handful of teams that have not even announced an official starting pitcher which makes this early day outline that much tougher.
However, when we have slates like this, I think going into it with a plan of “knowns” is critical because it allows you a well-articulated plan that has swerved away from the risk and means you are not left scrambling later.
Let’s start with the obvious – you have Coors Field, with the Dodgers against Antonio Senzatela who is allowing the highest hard contact rate in all of baseball this season. It is Coors Field with warm temperatures and 9-10 MPH winds blowing out – stacking the Dodgers is obvious, but on a 14 game slate, there are simply so many other ways we can “get different” that I am far less worried about ownership.
The other late-night stack I love is the Chicago Cubs against Madison Bumgarner in Chase Field. The Cubs may be on the verge of a firesale and have started the process with Joc Pederson getting traded last night, but if there was ever a going-away party for these right-handed batters, well it is this spot tonight.
Mad-Bum is giving up a .217 ISO, 46% fly-ball rate, and a 41% hard contact rate to right-handed batters this season, and that HC rate is the second-highest to RHB of any qualified arm in baseball this season.
The Cubs bats are loaded with left-handed killers – with Wilson Contreras, Kris Bryant and Javier Baez sporting .253, .377 and .349 ISO marks respectively this season.
Mad Bum relies on his cutter nearly 35% of the time to RHB, and he is giving up his highest ISO mark, at .278, of any of his potches to RHB this season. Contreras (.733), Baez (.333) and Bryant (.545) all have ISO marks that match up well and make them an ideal mini-stack with the Dodgers or a potential pivot off the chalky LA bats.
Alright – so we started off with two super high-priced stacks and you are probably thinking – how on Earth does this 2Lock moron expect to build a line-up with all the high-priced bats? Where is he going to get cheap arms?
Well, buckle up kiddos – this is where it gets fun (or terrible).
There is an arm today that has made 16 starts on the season, going for 25+ DK points in three of them and conversely going for negative points in two of them. Taking it a step further, they have gone for 15+ DK points in 40% of their starts and 9 or lower in the other 40%.
Basically the definition of a two true outcomes pitcher with GPP appeal and massive downside. Welcome to the Chris Paddack ($6.3K) party.
Now the easy retort here is Paddack faced Washington in his last start before the break and gave up 9 runs (8 ER) in just 2 innings for his worst start of the year. However, simply looking at game logs is about as meaningful as quoting BvP or talking about humidity – so take a second to dig deeper with me.
In that game, Paddack had an absurd .615 BABIP with a 62% ground ball rate and outside of a Juan Soto home run, all of the rest of the hits were singles so let’s not act like he was pitching BP to Pete Alonso in the HR Derby here.
We have seen games this season where Paddack pitched at an ace level and in those games, the formula was fairly simple – first-pitch strikes and relying on his fastball at a high velocity. In that start against the Nationals, his fastball velocity dropped to 94.8 MPH after sitting at 95.3 and 96 MPH against the Reds/Mets in his two best starts in June.
It is absolutely possible there was fatigue at play that caused the velocity drop but you are also seeing wild ebbs and flows in his spin rate in recent starts as Baseball Savant so perfectly illustrates.
The funny thing about this – his two best starts were June 13th and 18th – right in line with this wild spin rate drop where he moved away from the breaking stuff and went heavy on his fastball instead.
This could be another case, like we are seeing around Major League baseball, of arms having to adjust on the fly to “new rules” and while the downside is documented – so too is the upside – and I am sorry, but you are getting an arm who was $9.4K just a month ago at $6.3K tonight and when we want bats – THIS is how you get there without sacrificing K upside.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up
This MLB DFS Picks and Pivots slate tonight is going to be one that requires you to be active – with COVID and rain concerns AND pitchers confirmed throughout the day if you are not able to be actively engaged in your builds – take the day.
To me, this slate is about bat – with the Dodgers and Cubs standing out as incredible plays and it means using value arms to get there, but I think we have a GPP winning arm with double-digit K upside that could be the key to unlocking it all!
Good luck tonight all! Let’s keep that hot streak rolling! Come join the Win Daily Sports Team – grab a Gold Membership and take advantage of all the tools, articles, and expert coaching we can give you to make you a consistent winner in DFS.
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
