Gary Gustafson 
Welcome to the Wednesday, July 21st edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!
If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather to walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!
Early Slate Breakdown
Welcome into a split slate Wednesday of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we kick things off with a 6 game early slate that locks at 12:10 PM EST with a game in Coors Field, a 7 inning game between the Padres/Braves, and some well, let call it – interesting pricing.
Have you ever been out to eat at a new place, you sit down and open the menu and go wow, these prices are high but hey as long as the food is good right? Then the food comes and it is underwhelming and now you are annoyed you not only had a bad meal but you also paid a premium for it?
Well, get ready to step into that overpriced restaurant today for lunch where you have to pay $10K for Marcus Stroman and Madison Bumgarner. But hey, at least they are good, right?
The pricing is egregious for both arms, but can I say I actually love it? They are making you think about how much you are really willing to pay for perceived safety in your MLB DFS builds and kudos to DK for that. The flip side of this pricing equation is that DraftKings made the hitter pricing incredibly soft, with nearly 30 batters in the projected player pool priced under $3K and so we have 25-30% of our player pool in value territory.
The issue with paying up for Stroman and/or Mad-Bum is that they simply do not offer you the K ceiling to pay off that price tag and when the overall landscape in baseball right now is that offense is running the show, I am not sure we can allocate that much salary to arms that are going to pitch to contact and we hope “don’t hurt us.”
The key then is building on this early slate around offense and taking calculated shots on our arms and I think we have a few options that allow us this route.
Max Kranick ($7K) will make the start today in Chase Field against Arizona and if you are a Picks and Pivots reader, you know we were all over the Pirates top prospect in his first start back in June when he did this –
If you remember in that first start we detailed how Kranick re-invented himself during the pandemic with that short arm action delivery you see above and it has, in turn, brought significantly more velocity sitting in the mid to upper 90’s that he can use to play off his plus slider.
The Arizona projected line-up has 6 batters with 20%+ K rates against RHP this season and we have seen 7 of the last 10 RHP against Arizona go for 15+ DK points. When you add on the NARRATIVE alert that Max Kranick is celebrating his 24th birthday today – well, how do you pass on him at just $7K?
Brad Keller’s ($6.9K) season-long metrics are not going to entice you but his last two games have been arguably his best, with 9 and 7 K’s and a 14.5% swinging-strike rate. What fascinates me about him is that he is changed his pitch mix drastically in these last two starts and so for that reason, I think we have to take notice.
Prior to his last two starts, Keller had thrown 63% fastballs and 31% sliders – the last two starts however, Keller has thrown just 47% fastballs and ratcheted up his slider usage to 50%.
The slider is Keller’s swing and miss offering – it has a 35% whiff rate against left-handed batters and against a lefty-heavy Brewers team today that all have 30-35% whiff rates against that pitch type, I think we have another sneaky path for Mr. Keller who has seemingly reinvented himself.
The bats are when you are going to win your money today and with Coors Field on the slate, my guess is most go there – but I am more than happy to anchor to the New York Mets here today against Jeff Hoffman and the atrocious Reds bullpen.
Hoffman traditionally is a reverse splits arm with more of his power struggles coming against RHB which puts the red-hot Pete Alonso firmly back on our radar today alongside a left-handed heavy Mets line-up. Against left-handed batters this year Hoffman has struggled significantly with command, sporting a 18.6% walk rate which is 4 points higher than his K rate – never a good sign.
Any time we have a pitcher who struggles with command, you want to stack even more because you are looking at attack up and down where we get multiple base runners and big hits and crooked numbers.
The other spot here today that I want to use as a secondary stack, despite the fact that it is just a 7 inning game, is the Padres against LHP Kyle Muller.
Very specifically, I want the Fernando Tatis/Manny Machado combination.
The reason I bring them up alongside the Mets is how well they correlate because with Lindor on the IL, you can fill in the SS/3B in a Mets stack with arguably the two best bats on the slate. And while a 7 inning game is never ideal, the fact they are the road team guarantees us the 7 innings of at-bats and I think they have the individual ceiling that no other bats have on this slate.
Main Slate Breakdown
The MLB DFS Picks and Pivots main slate, mercifully is far more intriguing on the pitching end of things with two aces up top that have high K ceiling in Lance McCullers and Robbie Ray. The more I look at the options, I tend to agree with Adam Strangis in Starting Rotation, this is where we anchor to.
Now as he mentioned, it likely means having to avoid the Blue Jays – or does it?
Listen, the Jays are the best stack on the Main Slate against Garret Richards and while they are pricey, I think there is a path to stacking them up alongside double aces here tonight!
The key is the Texas Rangers against RHP Matt Manning as the Texas bats are basically free on DraftKings. 5 of the 9 projected batters in the Texas line-up are under $2.6K and while Manning has a pedigree, he has also struggled thus far with a near 50% hard contact rate allowed.
The Rangers bats correlate so well with the Blue Jays too as you can slot in a punt catcher like Jonah Heim at $2.2K in the heart of the order, allowing you to fill a spot you don’t want to “waste” with a Toronto catcher.
The simple fact, you can get the two best arms on the slate and the best stack in Toronto all as a result of the dirt-cheap Rangers bats makes the main slate a really clear build at first glance.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up
This MLB DFS Picks and Pivots day is a tale of two slates – one that requires some serious beer goggles and one that well, requires you to follow a really clear path.
The early slate is the one where you are going to struggle to feel comfortable but listen, everyone else will too – we all have the same horrendous options. Don’t be afraid to take chances and as we see ownership, allow yourself to think strategically.
The Main Slate – my advice, don’t overthink it. Just don’t.
Good luck tonight all! Let’s keep that hot streak rolling! Come join the Win Daily Sports Team – grab a Gold Membership and take advantage of all the tools, articles, and expert coaching we can give you to make you a consistent winner in DFS.
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
