Gary Gustafson 
Welcome to the Friday, July 30th edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!
If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather to walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!
Main Slate Breakdown
Welcome into Friday’s MLB DFS Picks and Pivots 15 game slate where the big news of the day is that is MLB Trade Deadline day and that means chaos likely up to and including 4 PM EST.
This means being diligent in watching lineups, understanding who has been dealt and from a DFS perspective, not falling in love with your early builds too much because the news of the day could change how we attack it drastically.
When we step back and look at this slate, what really fascinated me was how soft the pricing felt and how easy it seemed at first blush to pay up for arms without sacrificing my bats.
Now – you guys that have been around Picks and Pivots for a while now that I never look at plays in isolation – my goal is always to look at players and price points within a roster build to understand what is possible and today, with how cheap the bats seem, I am starting my pitcher pool up top.
That all starts with Lance Lynn ($10.3K) who on paper gets a really strong match-up against the right-handed heavy Cleveland Indians. The Indians are projected to roll out 5 RHB tonight and with Lynn having significant splits (33% K rate to RHB versus 22% versus LHB) – this would seem like the ideal spot to attack.
Over the last 30 days, no team in baseball has struck out more than the Indians, with a 26.4% K rate and this projected line-up overall has a 27.4% K rate against RHP over the last month – with three hitters (Bradley, Zimmer, and Franmil) all sporting 33% or higher K rates on their own.
The other $10K arm on this slate is Corbin Burnes ($10.2K) who gets a road start against the depleted Braves lineup in Atlanta. Burnes continues to be a high ceiling K SP1 who gets deep into games consistently and has double-digit K upside every time he takes the mound.
Not only does he have a massive 37% K rate on the year but he has held hitters on both sides of the plate under .070 ISO and uses his 50% ground ball rate on the back of his cutter to drive a 20.4% soft contact rate which is tied with the aforementioned Lynn for 6th in all of baseball.
Now while these two arms have different profiles, their ability to drive 30%+ K upside while leading the league in soft contact allowed gives you this floor/ceiling combination that you have come to expect from $10K aces on DraftKings but since the sticky stuff crackdown, we have rarely seen play out.
That narrative has been prevalent in MLB DFS circles for weeks now and we talk about it seemingly every day in our Win Daily Sports Discord but I would counter that this “don’t pay for arms” narrative is proving to be more sizzle than steak. Look back at last night – the winning builds seemingly all went with a Montas/Musgrove “double ace” type build and while it was a smaller slate, the simple fact these arms built a 75 point DK foundation – is what drove cash lines to be so high and I could see a similar outlook this evening.
Going with both Lynn/Burnes is going to leave you with $3.7K per batter for the rest of your build, and frankly, that is more than enough to feel good about your lineups.
What really excited me about this double-ace approach is that I can head to Toronto and get my favorite stack on the slate alongside them. Nope – not the 6+ IRT of the Blue Jays – I want all the Kansas City Royals action against RHP Ross Stripling.
If you look at the splits for Stripling by month, you see a story unfolding where the wheels have fallen off and the progression is steady and consistent. In every single month, his hard contact rate allowed has increased from 25% to 30% to 34% now in July and with it, his fly ball rate has climbed from 42% to 45% to 50% in the month of July.
If you look at his last three starts, two in which he gave up 10 ER and 5 HR’s in just 4 innings before a strong starts against the Mets – you see an approach change that hitters have jumped on.
Through the end of June, Stripling was using his curveball and slider nearly 35% of the time to play off his four-seam fastball. However in his last three starts specifically, we have seen a massive change where Stripling has all but abandoned the curve and now that 35% usage for the duo was down to about 25% and in its place was a heavier reliance on his fastball.
Well in those two bad outings – that fastball was hammered – as 4 of the 5 HR’s came off that pitch with a 50% and 100% hard contact rate allowed in those two outings. Against the Mets, that fastball generated essentially no hard contact but the same over-reliance was still there and the curveball was thrown just 6 times.
The Royals are a team that absolutely hammers the low-velocity fastball from right-handed pitchers up and down the line-up and if you are telling me that this is what Stripling is going to throw nearly 60% of the time with 10+ MPH winds blowing out – I AM HERE FOR IT.
Whit Merrifield (.281 ISO and 47% HC rate), Carlos Santana (.448 ISO and 44% HC rate), Salvador Perez (.300 ISO and 38% HC rate), Jorge Soler (.471 ISO and 43% HC rate) and Andrew Benintendi (team-high 365-foot average distance traveled and just an 8% whiff rate.
For all the focus that will likely be on the Jays tonight – I would argue the better bang for your buck is on the other side of this game with the Royals.
Now – for the secondary stack – this one, may not seem obvious but this is talent versus price discussion – and so can we talk about the Astros pricing versus Kevin Gausman?
Listen I get Gausman has been good this year but let’s not pretend like we all were stacking against “Gas Can” prior to his career resurrection in San Fran!
Three of his last five starts have been for less than 10 DK points and his negative outing last time out against Pittsburgh where he gave up 8 hits and 6 runs in just 4 innings was a reminder of the old Gas Can days!
In the last 30 days, the lefties have hit him hard – with a .378 ISO mark and 50% hard contact rate allowed while even the RHB have a 40.5% HC rate! The two lefties in Michael Brantley and Kyle Tucker are priced at $3K and $3.5K respectively and give you incredible salary relief to attack this recent skid from Gausman.
Gausman is basically a two-pitch pitcher against lefties with a 94 MPH fastball and a splitter that account for 80-85% of his pitch mix and both Astros lefties profile extremely well against it with Brantley having a .266 ISO against the FB and .280 ISO against the splitter while Tucker stands out with a team-high .343 ISO against the fastball velocity!
Now flip to the other side of the plate and let’s not overlook the right-handed batters especially Carlos Correa. Correa has a .340 ISO and a team-high 61% HC rate against the fastball of this velocity with an average distance traveled of 363 feet and even against the splitter – you get a .214 ISO and near 40% HC rate!
Since the All-Star break, Gausman has simply been ineffective and if you dig deeper you will see that batters are simply making him work and not chasing pitches outside the zone. On the season, Gausman has a 35% swing rate outside the zone which is driving his 16% SS rate – but over the last two starts, the Dodgers and Pirates simply didn’t bite and his 25% swing rate outside the zone mirrors the just 7% SS rate.
The Astros are a patient team and one that does not K much against RHP – much like the Pirates and Dodgers – in fact, all three teams rank in the bottom 8 in K rate in 2021 versus RHP with the Astros being the hardest team to K with right-handed arms. If you thought the last two starts were grinds for Gas Can – wait until tonight’s late-night hammer.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up
This Friday Night MLB DFS Picks and Pivots slate is going to be wild with the MLB Trade Deadline and frankly, we need to be patient and react. I mean goodness, I just gave you a whole breakdown and didn’t even mention it’s Jon Lester Day!
Today – get your butts in Discord – because things will change and we need to talk through it! Let’s rock fam!
Good luck tonight all! Let’s keep that hot streak rolling! Come join the Win Daily Sports Team – grab a Gold Membership and take advantage of all the tools, articles, and expert coaching we can give you to make you a consistent winner in DFS.
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
