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We are in the stretch run heading toward the FedEx Cup Playoffs and the PGA Tour is back on American soil for the WGC-FedEx St. Jude. This Par 70 7200 yard TPC Southwind course will test the complete game as golfers will need to be good in all areas. My focus will be on keeping it in the fairway and being good with the longer proximities (150-200 will be an emphasis), but I’m also looking for golfers that have the short game (ARG/PUTT) on these small Bermuda greens. This is another no-cut event. More on course dynamics, favored builds and players on Tuesday’s WinDaily Sports PGA Livestream which you can watch here at 8:00 EST. Let’s get to the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Initial Picks.
Collin Morikawa (11000) – Collin lost strokes on APP last week in a fairly significant way and still managed a 4th place finish. I don’t expect the APP to continue to fail him, which means this brilliant ball-striker will be contending again on Sunday afternoon.
Brooks Koepka (10600) – In three of his last four measured tournaments he’s gained over eight strokes ball striking (BS). That’s pretty incredible. His track record here is also incredible (2nd, 1st, 5th over his last three efforts).
Louis Oosthuizen (9600) – I’m looking for ball strikers at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude who are in good recent form and who have good course history. Check. Check. Check.
Scottie Scheffler (9100) – The 9k range is rich with talent and I have no issue with Hovland, Cantlay or Berger but I’m going to take a shot with Scottie. He shows up in a big way in talent-laden fields, ball striking has been excellent and the putter can get hot.
Webb Simpson (8500) – There’s no reason to trust Webb right now, but that’s why he may be a great pivot and play in a GPP. He’s coming off a Top 20 at The Open which is pretty great considering where his game was immediately prior to that. He also has some good history here with a 12th and 2nd over his last two efforts at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude.
Abraham Ancer (8300) – Ancer grades out very well in my model and really does check all the boxes in terms of hitting fairways, being superb with his long irons, being good on Par 4’s between 450-500, bogey avoidance and GIR. His upside may be capped, but he’s likely paying off his price either way.
Corey Conners (8100) – Another elite ball striker who just needs to find short game, which is more likely here because of the Bermuda greens. Be careful as his ARG game could get him into trouble. As for cash game potential I like Ancer (above) and English (below) a bit better than Conners.
Harris English (7600) – Over his last five measured starts he’s gained in BS. Over his last six measured starts he’s gained ARG. Finally, he’s gained PUTT in 5 of the last 6 measured rounds. He is putting the entire game together and he’s tremendous value at this price.
Tyrrell Hatton (7400) – Two missed cuts in a row should keep ownership down but he has great upside, not just in theory, but also in practice. At the Palmetto in June he gained 11.75 strokes BS on his way to a 2nd place finish (thanks to losing 3 strokes with the putter). Bermuda is a preferred green for Hatton. Not a cash play but should be great savings and upside for GPPs.
Stewart Cink (6500) – He’s hit a rough patch with the putter which is part of the reason he’s missed two cuts in a row. But he’s only one month removed from gaining 9.42 strokes at The Travelers. You’re hoping he can turn the putter around and putt like he did earlier this year while also capturing some consistency with the ball striking.
Ryan Palmer (6500) – Palmer is the type of player that you simply wouldn’t take in a normal cut event because the game has fallen off a cliff over the last few months. With that said, because the WGC-FedEx St. Jude has no cut, I’m more willing to push a few Palmer chips into the middle. He may not be good for 4 rounds, but he has the ability to pop for 2-3.
Jim Herman (6000) – He hits fairways and has a solid long iron game and that’s led to four Top 30’s in a row. He’s also gained in BS and in putting five tournaments in a row. Herman is an absolute no-name, but if you put these numbers next to a guy with a pedigree, he’d be priced a thousand dollars higher.
Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – Current record is 41-12. See you in Discord.
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