Joel Bartilotta 
Welcome to the Thursday edition of Picks and Pivots. Today we have an 8 game day slate of MLB DFS on Draftkings to navigate through.
Main Slate Breakdown
It’s Jared and I’ll be filling in Brian over the next 2 weeks when I’m not writing Aces and Bases as he takes a much needed and well deserved vacation.
On this fine Thursday we have an 8 game slate during the day that I’ll be focusing on . One thing is clear. Brandon Woodruff ($10.2k) is a must play. He’s certain to be chalk, but I just don’t see how it’s chalk we can avoid.
Burnes struck out 15 Cubs last night. Over the past week the Cubs are striking out 40% of the time. That is just an insane mark. Woodruff doesn’t have the same level of strike out ability as Burnes, but he’s still someone that can dial up some strikeouts. In his last 24 innings of work he has a 31% K rate. He has more upside than anyone else on the slate tonight and I’ll be ok eating the chalk on this one. Fade at your own risk.
SP2 is where it gets tricky today. My lean right now is to use Tanner Houck ($8.7k) vs. the Tampa Bay Rays. Houck has been pretty dominant over the past month. He has a 40% K rate in 15 innings of work and a near 12% swinging strike rate. He gets a tough match up vs. the Tampa Bay rays but if we dive into pitch data he matches up pretty well.
Houck is going to throw his slider around 37% of the time. Outside of Austin Meadows, this is a pitch that the Rays struggle with. As a whole, they have a high K rate and limited power vs. the pitch. Houck’s slider has been great with a 42% whiff rate. If it is on today, he should have some serious upside.
The other pitcher I’m considering is John Means ($9.2k). Means now has 4 starts behind him since his DL stint. The first 2 weren’t very encouraging as they had a combined 4 strike outs. His last 2 starts have been much better with a K% greater than 20 in each. One of those starts was against the Tigers and he struck out 6 in 6 innings.
Before his injury Means was pitching like an ace and his starts have gotten progressively better since he’s been back. Means bread and butter pitch is his changeup and if it’s on point today, he shouldn’t have any issues with the Tigers as it’s not a pitch they do well with. I would not be shocked if he was the highest scoring pitcher on today’s slate.
The first place I’m looking to for offense today will in Pittsburgh with the St. Louis Cardinals vs. JT Brubaker. Cardinals are poised to have a big day. Over the past month Brubaker has been getting hit extremely hard with a near 42% hard hit rate.
He’s been relying on his fastball a lot more of late and has been throwing it more than 50% of the time. It’s been a pitch that he’s given up the most power to this year with a .559 slugging % and 40% hard hit rate. The guys on the Cardinals that excel the most against the fastball will be my targets.
Tyler O’neill ($3.6k) is one of the best of the bunch with a .594 slugging % and .418 wOBA against fastballs this year. Paul Goldschmidt ($4.9K) and Paul DeJong ($3.7k) also have slugging %’s greater than .475 on the year to fastballs and will be targets of mine today. Dylan Carlson ($3.1k) is the hottest Cardinal right now with a .421 wOBA over the past week. I’ll be sure to squeeze him in as well.
My next stack on DK this afternoon will be the Seattle Mariners vs. Mike Foltynewicz. Folty is a favorite of mine because he just gives up so much hard contact and so many fly balls. His xFIP over the past month is an astounding 7.12.
Any time he is on the hill you should consider taking batters against him. That’s what I plan on doing today. Although Folty is awful to both sides of the plate, he’s really taken it to the next level against lefties this year. Lefties have a .304 ISO against him this year.
Kyle Seager ($4.4k)is locked in right now with 3 homers over the past week and will be sure to be in my lineup. Jarred Kelenic ($2.3k) is finally coming around at the plate with a .905 OPS this week. He’s near min priced and gets a tasty match up against Folty today. Other guys I will like here are Abraham Toro ($3.8k) and J.P. Crawford ($3.6k).
Other teams that are poised to do well today that I will sprinkle in some batters from are the Oakland A’s vs. Eli Morgan and potentially some Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Wade LeBlanc.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up
My pitching today will be focused on chalky Brandon Woodruff, Tanner Houck, and John Means. With these games being during the day I’ll let opposing lineups determine which SP2 I use. My bats will be focused on both the Cardinals and Mariners. Both teams have the potential to put up very big numbers today as they are facing the worst pitchers on the day and line up very well.
Good luck and hope to see you in the green!
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