Joel Bartilotta 
Welcome to the Thursday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a small 5 game main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.
My goal today will be to walk you through my 3 favorite pitchers and 3 favorite stacks on the day.
Before we dive in to today’s slate I wanted to take a few moments to talk about something extremely important to me. September is Suicide Prevention Awareness Month and a little less than 2 years ago suicide became very real for myself and my family. Two Octobers ago I got a call from my mother that is etched in my ear for the rest of my life. “Eric committed suicide”. He was the last person you’d expect to commit suicide. He married his high school sweetheart, had 2 amazing kids, a baller house, and a super successful business.
My brother also quietly suffered from demons that many of our friends, family, coworkers suffer with that we know nothing about. My request to all of you is to be conscience of your loved ones. If you notice a difference in a friend or family member or co-worker’s behavior, hold their hand. Talk to them. That simple outreach could save their life. If you are reading this and you are one of those suffering in silence, know you are loved by someone and your pain does not go away. If you ever need to talk reach out, my dm’s are always open.
With that said, let’s dig in to today’s slates!
MLB DFS: The “Aces”
This may be the worst pitching slate of the year so we’ll need to tread with caution.
Shane McClanahan ($10.1k) vs. Boston Red Sox – The match up isn’t the greatest but McClanahan is one of the top arms on the slate. Over the last month he’s been really good. He has 2.94 xFIP and a 27% K rate.
While he his hard contact is a bit higher than I’d like to see from my SP1, he also has one of the lowest contact rates of any pitcher on the slate. McClanahan’s biggest out pitch is his slider which he’s been throwing 35% of the time this year.
If we look at the Red Sox projected lineup McClanahan should have a solid night. The big bats in this lineup all have high whiff rates against the slider. If his slider is on tonight this could be a ceiling game.
Triston McKenzie ($8.8k) vs. Kansas City Royals – If I’m going to pick on the Royals I’m going to do it with a righty. In McKenzie we’re getting a righty who has really come into his own over the past month. His last two outings have been by far his best in the majors with 8 K’s against the Angels and then 11 against Detroit.
Now the Royals aren’t at the same poor level as those teams but they aren’t an overly intimidating lineup. While McKenzie does throw his fastball more than 60% of the time he uses is curveball when trying to put away batters. This is a pitch he can use to neutralize the Royals top two hitters in Merrifield and Perez.
Perez has a 39% whiff rate against curveballs and Merrifield has just a .195 wOBA against them. If he can slow down those two, sky’s the limit for him tonight.
Cookie Carrasco ($6.8k) vs. Miami Marlins – We don’t have a big sample size on Carrasco this year because he first made his debut a little more than a month ago. His last 2 outings he really has seemed to turn a corner and he did against two very tough lineups.
He struck out 5 Giants and 6 Dodgers. Now he gets to take on a much weaker lineup in the Marlins. The projected Marlins lineup tonight has a 25% K rate vs. righties over the last month. Carrasco is near min priced for a pitcher and we could do a whole lot worse at this price point.
MLB DFS: The Bats
New York Mets vs. Zach Thompson – This Mets pick is contingent on Thompson starting. Marlins haven’t officially named him the starter but if he throws tonight I’m attacking him with the Mets.
The Mets seemed to have turned the corner and are finally hitting the ball again. Tonight they get to take on a pitcher in Thompson who has been pretty bad over the past month. He’s sporting a 5.53 xFIP and a near 38% hard hit rate.
With Thompson we want to attack him with batters from the left side as they’ve had a .277 ISO against him over the past month. The Mets have 3 lefties that are cheap to inexpensive that I’m going to focus on. It starts with Michael Conforto ($2.5k).
To say this season has been a bust for Conforto would be quite the understatement. That said, over the past week he’s turned things around and we have short term memories in DFS. Over the past week he has a 1.185 OPS with 2 homers and 2 barrels. He’s seeing the ball well and he’s one of the most streakiest hitters in the game.
The other 2 players I’ll build my Mets stack around are Jonathan Villar ($2.5k) and Brandon Nimmo ($2.9k). Villar is the hottest Met with a 1.463 OPS and 3 barrels over the last 7 days.
Atlanta Braves vs. Chi Chi Gonzalez – A power house lineup vs. a gas can in Colorado means we have the potential for a huge number tonight. Gonzalez has been brutal this year as he’s pitched to a 5.4 xFIP. He’s someone that doesn’t miss many bats and gives up hard contact at a 45% clip.
Gonzalez is a reverse splits pitcher and we’ll want to attack him with the righties as he’s given up a .302 ISO to them this season. My stack here will start with Riley ($3.7k) and Swanson ($3.5k). Both guys have been torching righties over the last month. Riley with a .345 ISO and Swanson with a .268.
Gonzalez has no true out pitcher as all of his pitches get hit hard so lets focus on his main pitch, the fastball. It’s been getting hit hard at a 45% clip this year. Riley and Swanson both have slugging %’s over .590 on the year vs. fastballs. While those are my building blocks here, I’ll be sure to have some Freeman ($4k) and Soler ($3.6k).
Cleveland Indians vs. Mike Minor – While not confirmed yet, Minor is expected to start for the Royals tonight. Minor hasn’t been awful the last 30 days, but he does what we want in DFS and that’s give up homers.
He’s given up 6 in his last 22 innings of work. In 3 of his last 4 starts he’s given up 2 homers. With the Indians we have a team that has some pop against lefties, especially over the past month.
The projected lineup for the Indians tonight has a .248 ISO against lefties in August and a .377 wOBA. With the Indians it always starts with Ramirez ($4.5K). Over the last 30 days he has a .405 ISO against southpaws with a .431 wOBA. He should see a ton of fastballs tonight.
Historically Ramirez has crushed fastballs from lefties as he has a .302 ISO against them over the last few years with a average distance of 327. There’s a great chance of him taking Minor yard tonight. I’ll surround him with Amed Rosario ($3.4k) and Franmil Reyes ($3.3k) as both guys have done well against lefties this year.
MLB DFS: The Wrap Up
Pitching is very suspect tonight. We’ll need to tread with caution with all of them but my lean right now is to go with McClanahan as my SP1. Red Sox have been beaten up by Covid and we should look to take advantage of it. I’ll look to the Mets for value tonight as some of the bats I want with the Braves and Indians are priced up, but fairly.
Good luck and hope to see you in the green!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
