Gary Gustafson 
Welcome to the Thursday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!
If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather to walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!
Early Slate Breakdown
Welcome into a split slate MLB DFS Picks and Pivots Thursday where once again we get a 3 game early slate to dive into – now, let’s just hope the pitchers perform better than yesterday’s mess!
This slate to me looks and feels a lot like yesterday in the sense we have three clear top-level arms that it seems like we need to anchor to with Aaron Nola, Logan Webb and Frankie Montas.
All three have strong cases with 30%+ K rates over the last month which is the ceiling we are hoping for if we decide to go this route. Aaron Nola ($9.5K) to me is the one pitcher I think we can lock in regardless of the opposing lineup with 32 and 33% K rates to either side of the plate. The decision on your SP2 with Logan Webb or Frankie Montas, is where you can get a bit more picky based on the opposing lineup.
Webb has been dominant the last month with a 34% K rate but that is wildly skewed due to a 42% K rate versus RHB while the LHB sit at just 25%. Milwaukee is projected to throw 6 left-handed bats today so there is an argument to be made that Webb’s K upside is limited with the splits.
Montas meanwhile has a similar story the last month with a 31% K rate overall that is buoyed by a 42% K rate to RHB versus a 21% K rate to LHB and the Tigers confirmed lineup has 7 hitters from the left side. Now the flip side – right-handed SP’s have flourished against the Tigers lately with 4 of the last 8 going for 30+ DK points so Montas has the higher ceiling of the two in my mind.
So how do we decide? While Webb has the better ballpark, Montas faces a Tigers team with the higher K rate over the last month – but the real deciding factor in some odd way could be the start time of these games.
With the Giants game not starting until 3:45 PM EST which is well after the 1:10 PM EST lock and the start of the other games, the likelihood is we don’t have lineup information on Webb to make a decision so some of it may simply be seeing what Montas has to deal with against the Tigers. Play the known versus the unknown basically.
With Webb/Montas at similar price points – it should not stop us from building – and I think starting with Nola and either SP2 and then anchoring to an Oakland A’s stack is the way to attack early.
Matt Manning is a talented pitcher but he is also an arm giving up nearly 50% hard contact over the last month and the LHB specifically are squaring him up to the tune of a .333 ISO. The biggest issue is the sinker which Manning throws nearly 40% of the time and is giving up a .330+ ISO mark and all the lefties in the A’s lineup hit this pitch well. So start your builds with Matt Olson, Jed Lowrie and Tony Kemp who all have .225 ISO marks and 45%+ HC rates.
Main Slate Breakdown
The 5 game MLB DFS Picks and Pivots Main Slate has a little bit of everything as we have top-end arms, a game in Coors Field with a near THIRTEEN implied run total and some solid contests on DraftKings to make this a really appealing short slate to play.
With both slates today being smaller than usual, ownership and strategy play a massive part and I think this 5 game slate is even more so due to the Coors Field impact. If everyone and their mother is stacking Coors, well the other offenses by default will be overlooked and the build types will likely be largely similar.
If you have ever read Picks and Pivots – the simple truth is – you know what is coming next. Everyone, please go look at the shiny Vegas Coors totals – we will stack the best offense in baseball and do so with double aces.
Yep, it’s a Double Ace/Rays day – because, well it is what we do.
The spot for Shane McLanahan ($10.1K) against a depleted Red Sox lineup screams ceiling especially when you consider the last time he faced them at home he struck out 7 and racked up 26 DK points – and that was before the team got gutted with COVID outbreaks.
Triston McKenzie ($9.3K) has struggled this year but the last two starts are a reminder of his upside with 8 and 11 K’s and 32 and 43 DK points. Now the Royals are getting healthier with Aldaberto Mondesi back but the last two games for McKenzie give us a double ace-high K duo that the Coors Field lovers simply won’t go after because they won’t be able to afford it.
Meanwhile – the Rays offense is priced reasonably against LHP Eduardo Rodriguez and with Nelson Cruz and Jordan Luplow in this lineup now, the Rays become deep and dangerous against lefties which was their bugaboo all year.
The RHB in this lineup has a .236 ISO and 47% HC rate against southpaws the last month and I would argue they are the most dangerous offense on the slate that I expect will be totally overlooked.
The one spot we can find value today easily is in Cleveland with the Indians against LHP Mike Minor. Over the last month, Minor has given up a massive .284 ISO and 49% HC rate to RHB and the Indians are going to have 9 of them – with a whopping 6 priced at $3K or less. You want value and the match-up – this is the spot!
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up
Today we get a full day of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots and with two short slates, navigating through ownership is KEY. I say this all the time but these slates are always strategy over best plays and if there was ever a day to be in Discord with us talking strategy – today is the day!
Good luck tonight all! Let’s keep that hot streak rolling! Come join the Win Daily Sports Team – grab a Gold Membership and take advantage of all the tools, articles, and expert coaching we can give you to make you a consistent winner in DFS.
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
