Adam Strangis 
Welcome to the Tuesday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a nice sized 12 game slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.
My goal today will be to walk you through my 3 favorite pitchers and 3 favorite stacks on the day.
Let’s dig in to today’s slates!
MLB DFS: The Aces
Blake Snell ($10.1k) vs. Los Angeles Angels – Blake Snell is on a heater right now and I want to join the ride. Over the last month Snell has an insane 41% K rate. He’s reached 9 K’s or more in 3 of his last 4 outings. With a match up against a struggling Angels lineup I just don’t see how the momentum gets stopped.
Over the last week the Angels have struck out almost 28% of the time. Snell’s main strike out pitch is his slider. Outside of Fletcher and Adell this is a pitch that the Angels struggle with as the majority of the lineup tonight have whiff rates over 28%.
The strike outs are going to be there for Snell tonight. It’s just going to be a matter of how long the Padres let him stay out there.
Gerrit Cole ($11.3k) vs. Toronto Blue Jays – Another pitcher in peak form is Gerrit Cole. Cole, just like Snell, has a K rate over 40% over the past month. Gone are his struggles post spider tack.
Cole has 4 consecutive outings with 46 or more FD points and that’s probably his floor again tonight. While the match up against a strong Blue Jays lineup is going to be tough, Cole is an ace. If we dig in to pitch data Cole has a chance of a solid game tonight.
While he throws his fastball around 47% of the time he normally uses his slider to strike batters out. If we look at the Blue Jays lineup we can see it’s a pitch they struggle with. Only Dickerson has a whiff rate less than 30%. If Cole’s slider is on tonight he has the chance to get closer to his ceiling than floor.
Logan Webb ($9.7k) vs. Colorado Rockies – I don’t often use pitchers in Colorado but Webb has been lights out and his profile sets up well to have success in Coors. Webb is an extreme ground ball pitcher and if you want to use a pitcher in Coors that’s the type you’d want to pick.
Over the past month Webb has been dominant with a 31.7% K rate, a 2.24 xFIP, and a 64% ground ball rate. He’s given up just 4 barrels and 1 home run in 33 innings of work over that period. Love Webb’s chances to have a ceiling game tonight. Webb is my high risk/high reward pitcher tonight.
MLB DFS: The Bats
Kansas City Royals vs. Alex Wells – While the Royals disappointed a bit yesterday we need to go right back to the well today as they get a great match up vs. Wells. Wells on the year hasn’t been good as he has a near 6 xFIP.
It’s been pretty limited as he hasn’t been up in the Majors much this year but there’s been a reason for that. His biggest weakness has been against righties. They have a .250 ISO against him this year and a sub 10% K rate.
With the Royals we have a few guys that I really want and it will all start with Salvador Perez ($3.9k). Over the past 30 days he’s been crushing lefties with a .323 ISO. He’s also in the zone right now as he had a great past week. Over the last 7 days he has 3 homers to go with his 50% hard hit rate.
Other guys I want here are Mondesi ($3.9k) and Olivares ($2k). Mondesi because he’s always a threat to either hit a homer or steal a base and Olivares because he’s min priced in just a great a hitting environment. He really opens up a ton of salary for us today if he cracks the lineup.
San Francisco Giants vs. Chi Chi Gonzalez – I often try to not use one of my 3 recommended stacks on a team in Coors but when the match up is what it is, I just can’t ignore it. The Giants get to take on one of my favorite punching bags in Gonzalez.
On the year Gonzalez has been brutal. He owns a 5.57 xFIP and a measly 13% K rate. Batters have been teeing off on him with a 45% hard hit rate. He’s someone we should always consider stacking against him and that’s what I plan on doing tonight.
Gonzalez is typically much worse against righties so I’m going to build this stack around Bryant ($4.1k) assuming he’s back in the lineup tonight. While he’s been a bit cold of late there’s no better remedy for a slump than Gonzalez.
Other guys I’ll want here are LaMonte Wade ($3.4k) and Brandon Belt ($3.3k). Both guys are criminally underpriced considering the match up and environment. Also, both guys have been really solid against righties over the past month with ISO’s over .220 for both of them. Giants should put up a big number tonight and I want to be a part of it.
Chicago White Sox vs. James Kaprielian – White Sox get a great match up tonight vs. a pitcher in Kap that’s really been struggling. Over the past 30 days Kap is pitching to a 6.16 xFIP. He’s really been getting hurt by the long ball as he’s given up 6 in his 25 innings of work.
This is going to be a tough match up for him tonight as he’s a fly ball pitcher going against a fly ball team. Kap’s biggest struggles of late have come against lefties as they have a .340 ISO and .435 wOBA against him over the past 30 days.
My foundation with the White Sox is going to be Gavin Sheets ($2.1k). He’s not a guarantee to crack the lineup but if he does he’s a lock for me tonight. He’s cheap and hits for power vs. righties.
Other guys I’ll want to include here are Yasmani Grandal ($3.6k), Eloy Jimenez ($3.5k), and Jose Abreu ($4.1k). These 3 have been crushing the ball over the past month and should have no issues with Kap tonight.
MLB DFS: The Wrap Up
My pitching tonight will focused on the 3 names I mentioned, with Snell being the leading candidate to make my lineup. My main core of bats will be the Royals and I’ll be sure to sprinkle in some Giants and Sox. There’s going to be a ton of offense tonight. After Cole and Snell we really see sharp drop off in pitching.
Good luck and hope to see you in the green!
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