Brian Tulloch 
Welcome to the Friday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!
If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather to walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!
Main Slate Breakdown
Welcome into a Friday Night MLB DFS Picks and Pivots slate – a strong 10 game slate with a good contest base on DraftKings that we can sink our teeth into and build some bankroll heading into a football and NASCAR weekend!
Let’s just get this one out of the way because to me, it is the must-have building block on the slate without any care how highly owned he will be and that is Robbie Ray as our SP1. There has been no better strikeout pitcher in baseball the last month than Ray with a 40%+ K rate, and while his $10.7K price tag is high, considering he is coming off four straight double-digit strikeout starts, including a 10K 33 DK point effort against the same Orioles team he faced tonight – well, maybe he is not priced up enough.
The SP2 decision is really where your decision process starts and I will be honest – the options by and large, are not overwhelming. We have great name value up top in bad match-ups and some shaky value in the mid to lower end of our player pool.
While it may be tempting to drop down to SP2 values that “can get there” – I am always going to anchor to the top arms when I can and I think paying up for both tonight will be contrarian. Framber Valdez ($9.1K) gets arguably the best match-up tonight of any arm against an Angels team that is striking out at the second-highest mark in baseball the last two weeks at 26.6%. The recent trends give you some potential upside but the flip side of this argument is that Valdez has just a 17% K rate against RHB the last month and the Angels are projected to flip the lineup over and roll out 8 of the 9 batters from the right side.
We have seen mediocre lefties like Keegan Akin, Cole Rivin and Austin Gomber all put up 20+ DK outings against the Angels since the break and Blake Snell just dominated them for 30+ DK points. I will always side with arms over bats and tonight going Ray and Valdez gives me K upside and the ability to still anchor to big time stacks.
It is a day that ends in Y and the Tampa Bay Rays are on the slate – on the road against the Detroit Tigers and LHP Matt Boyd. Over the last month, Boyd has seen his metrics spike to RHB with a .345 ISO and 45% fly ball rate and that is bad news with the Rays being able to flip their lineup to hit southpaws with power.
Over the last month, the right-handed bats in this Rays lineup have a massive .329 ISO with a 45% fly ball rate and a 45% hard contact rate. All of Manuel Margot, Wander Franco, Nelson Cruz, Jordan Luplow and Mike Zunino have .200+ ISO marks with Zunino’s numbers just looking fake – a .773 ISO and 72% HC rate – seriously. Stack the Rays. People won’t. We will. Rinse. Repeat.
One of the reasons we can do double aces with the Rays is the insane pricing on the Milwaukee Brewers bats – seriously, what is happening? Milwaukee has the highest IRT on the slate against RHP Eli Morgan, a pitcher who over the last month has a .260 ISO and 61% fly ball rate to left-handed batters and Milwaukee is just simply too cheap.
Christian Yelich is $3.9K. What?
You need a punt 1B – how about Rowdy Tellez and/or Daniel Vogelbach at $2K.
Eduardo Escobar is the most expensive bat at $4K.
Seriously – it is almost too easy today to go double aces and Rays because of the pricing on Milwaukee. Lock and load kids – we eat tonight!
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up
Good luck tonight all! Let’s keep that hot streak rolling! Come join the Win Daily Sports Team – grab a Gold Membership and take advantage of all the tools, articles, and expert coaching we can give you to make you a consistent winner in DFS.
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
