Gary Gustafson 
Welcome to the Saturday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!
If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather to walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!
Split Slate Saturday
Welcome into a split slate Saturday of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots with two solid slates of Saturday baseball we can sink our teeth into but first, I want to take a moment to simply recognize today as the 20th anniversary of September 11th. For anyone of my generation, and especially for anyone like me who grew up in the NYC area, this is one of those days you remember everything about – where you were, who you were with, what the next days were like, etc – and those feelings you had 20 years ago, just take a moment to reflect on them today all those years later.
You will hear many stories about what this day meant to people but what I remember, most honestly were the days after. Maybe it was the haze and disbelief of that day that make it far more surreal but the following days and the feelings are something I won’t ever shake. The unity of the country, the outpouring of love across communities everywhere, and the genuine appreciation we had for being able to hug our friends and family. Tonight, the Mets/Yankees will play in New York and I am sure that Mike Piazza home run against the Braves will be played a million times – it doesn’t matter – the roar of the crowd gives me chills every single time. Sports were a way of healing then and today they still have the power to bring us together. Take time to remember that day and the days after – and remember that same unity, love, and appreciation we all felt and bring it into today.
Early Slate Breakdown
On this six-game early MLB DFS Picks and Pivots slate, well frankly – it SCREAMS the Picks and Pivots life and I am not sure a build could come together much easier at first glance. It all begins with two ace arms in Corbin Burnes and Zack Wheeler who are priced over $10K on DraftKings with the 30%+ K rate metrics that we covet when building our DFS lineups. Strikeouts are king, and pitching on small slates sets the tone – so today getting the chance to take these two as foundation pieces seems like the clear path.
The reason it becomes almost entirely too easy is because of how the pricing on the bats are set up – going right back to the well with the highly correlated Rays/Brewers stacks that once again SCREAM value.
The Rays take on Casey Mize and the Tigers and the right-hander has had pretty drastic splits this season with his struggles against left-handed batters really standing out – with a .258 ISO mark, 52% HC rate and 2.37 HR/9 rate.
The obvious plays are going to be Austin Meadows and Brandon Lowe here and with Ji-Man Choi back, this Rays lineup can flip to attack from the left side with ease but I am going to be fascinated to see what kind of lineup Kevin Cash throws out tonight. With Wander Franco injured last night – how will the Rays lineup look tonight? We could end up with multiple value bats here from the Rays with Taylor Walls, Kevin Kiermeir and Josh Lowe all viable options and all silly cheap batting from the left side.
The Brewers absolutely smashed for us last night and the pricing is still just laughable here today against Dan Plesac and the Indians with the wind blowing straight out at 15-16 MPH in Detroit today.
Plesac is a reverse splits arm with a .223 ISO, 43% HC rate and 1.91 HR/9 rate so the preference is to go after him with right-handed batters first and specifically ones that can hit the slider he throws over 40% of the time. Avisail Garcia leads the team from the right side with a 315 average distance traveled on that pitch type while Luis Urias has a .205 ISO and 43% HC rate. Over the last month, Garcia has a .326 ISO and 60% HC rate against RHP and at just $3.3K on DK is a slate-breaking HR call at a cheap mid-range price point! Garcia is going deep today kids.
Again, depending on the line-up here we could get multiple $2K punts with Daniel Vogelbach, Rowdy Tellez and Lorenzo Cain all at minimum price. You want double aces, big bats, and two highly correlated stacks – this is it kids – don’t overthink it.
Just one reminder – the Blue Jays/Orioles game is only a 7 inning double-header and 4 of the 6 games start after 6 PM even though the lock is at 4 PM EST so strategically – backloading your builds to give you maximum flexibility is key and the Rays/Brewers give you exactly that.
Main Slate Breakdown
The MLB DFS Picks and Pivots Main Slate is fascinating to me because even with just 8 games, it has a little bit of everything – we have ace level arms, we have multiple team with 5-6 IRT’s and the pricing is such where I think we can get really creative with our GPP builds.
I feel like the default build at first glance is going to be Charlie Morton ($8K) against the Marlins and a whole lot of Twins bats with a 6 IRT against Brady Singer and the Royals. While I get the Morton love (but be prepared for massive ownership) – let me say, I officially don’t get attacking Brady Singer ($6K).
If you guys have been following along Picks and Pivots, you know Singer is an arm I have been pushing for weeks and this has come as a result of his a new pitch mix approach which has frankly, made him totally different pitcher.
Singer has 5-6 K’s in each of his last 4 starts, with 15, 17, 18 and 29 DK points coming against offenses like Houston (2x) and the White Sox last time out.
Over the last four starts, Singer is using his slider nearly 45% and it has brought with it a 12% SS rate – guys this is a totally different pitcher and the results are showing. Now it is scary to see the 6 IRT for the Twins and going against Vegas, well rarely works out, but this may be the ultimate leverage SP2 play tonight – especially if you choose to use Morton chalk – pairing him with Singer could make for GPP gold!
Going down to Singer as an SP2 opens up all the bats and that is good because I want all the Houston Astros tonight against LHP Jose Suarez and the Angels. This is not an indictment necessarily on Suarez because his numbers have been solid but let’s not overlook the fact that he is still giving up a near 50% hard contact rate to right-handed batters which will be – well, most of the Houston lineup tonight and the righties have a .200+ ISO and 46% HC rate against lefties this season.
Suarez is a ground ball heavy arm who relies on that to keep his LOB rate up and strand runners. Over his last four starts, you are starting to see where the luck may be playing into it just a bit – with an 80% plus left on base rate and an xFIP a full run higher than his ERA. So if/when regression hits – it’s going to hit hard and this Astros lineup is as deep as we have on this slate – so going full in with the Astros bats and banking on regression for Suarez is a key part of this main slate strategy.
The other lineup with a ton of big-name power tonight is the LA Dodgers against RHP Chris Paddack. Paddack is giving up over a 1.5 HR/9 rate to both sides of the plate and 45% plus HC rates and this Dodgers lineup – well, you know the drill – is just going to come at him in waves as the late night hammer. Paddack has a 5+ xFIp the last month with a 56% HC rate allowed and so going Dodgers heavy here tonight alongside the Astros will give you an incredible offense-centric build with massive upside.
We are seeing Paddack have to rely more and more on his fastball, and anytime you are throwing a fastball to big league hitters 60-75% of the time – it is bound to get you in trouble especially with a 12% K rate the last month. Both Mookie Betts and Max Muncy have .400+ ISO marks against the fastball velocity and 60% HC rates and I would anchor my builds to these big bats this evening!
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up
Enjoy today’s MLB DFS Picks and Pivots slates as we have two good ones and a chance to build our bankroll heading into the first NFL Sunday of the season!
Good luck tonight all! Let’s keep that hot streak rolling! Come join the Win Daily Sports Team – grab a Gold Membership and take advantage of all the tools, articles, and expert coaching we can give you to make you a consistent winner in DFS.
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