Joel Bartilotta 
Welcome to the Tuesday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a nice sized 12 game slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.
My goal today will be to walk you through my 3 favorite pitchers and 3 favorite stacks on the day.
Let’s dig in to tonight’s slate!
MLB DFS: The Aces
Gerrit Cole ($11.4k) vs. Baltimore Orioles – If we get a full clean bill of health on Cole before the game tonight he becomes the clear SP1 on the night. Even with his poor outing against the Blue Jays last week Cole still has a 36% strike out rate over the past month. All of his metrics are separate him from his peers.
He has the highest CSW of any pitcher tonight, the lowest xFIP, and one of the lowest swinging strike rates. He gets a great match up vs. a poor Orioles team. While the Orioles have been better of late vs. righties, they’re still striking out more than 25% of the time vs. righties over the last month. Again, if we know Cole is healthy tonight, he’s my clear SP1.
Lucas Giolito ($9.8k) vs. Los Angeles Angels – This is another pitcher with a questions mark surrounding his health. Gio is expected to come off the IL tonight after a short stay. If we get confirmation that he’s a full go with no limitations I’m going to give him a serious look. He gets as good of a match up as there is tonight against strike out prone Angels team.
Over the least 30 days the Angels are striking out nearly 28% of the time vs. righties. The only guy in this lineup that isn’t striking out much vs. righties is Fletcher but if we look at his other numbers, we should be fine letting him put the ball in play as he has a .176 wOBA against righties over the last month.
Gio’s main put away pitch is his changeup. If it’s on tonight he has a chance to have a ceiling type game. If we look at the Angels projected lineup tonight it’s a pitch that they struggle with. They all have high whiff rates.
Nathan Eovaldi ($10k) vs. Seattle Mariners – Eovaldi has been on a roll of late. Over the last month his 30% K rate is second only to Cole of the pitchers on the mound tonight. Eovaldi is going to face a lefty heavy lineup. The projected Mariners lineup tonight should have 7 lefties in it.
As we look into the Eovaldi’s splits, this is in his wheelhouse. Over the past 30 days he’s striking lefties out at a 33% clip and has held them to a .255 wOBA. He’s going to throw lefties his curveball almost a third of the time tonight, similar to what he did to dominate the Rays last night. In looking at the Mariners lineup the majority of them have whiff rates over 30% to this pitch. This has the makings of another solid Eovaldi outing tonight.
I’m staying in the upper tier of pitchers tonight. The pitchers in the mid to low tiers all look awful on paper and we could make a strong case to stack against all of them.
MLB DFS: The Bats
San Francisco Giants vs. Jake Arrieta – You have to think at this point we are seeing the last few stats of a pitcher that had a very solid career. The last few years have been a big struggle for Arrieta, with this year being his worst by far.
On the year he has a 5.21 xFIP and just a 17% K rate. Once an extreme groundball pitcher, Arrieta is giving up one of the highest fly ball rates of his career this year at 31%. This match up vs. the Giants is as bad of a match up as Arrieta could have. Arrieta relies heavily on his sinker. This Giants lineup is extremely solid vs. sinkers.
The guy I’m targeting first here is Brandon Crawford ($3.4k). On the year he has a .741 slugging % and .515 wOBA vs. sinkers. I’ll be building around Crawford with Wade ($2.9k) and Yastrzemski ($3.3k). Both guys have slugging %’s over .500 and wOBA’s over .400 vs. sinkers this year. All three guys stand a chance to smash tonight.
Houston Astros vs. Jordan Lyles – Lyles is a favorite of mine when it comes to stacking against in DFS. He provides what we need, homers. Over his last 30 innings of work he has given up 9 homers. That’s just an absurd number and one we want to chase tonight.
Lyles is someone that is pretty poor against both sides of the plate so I’m not going to be overly concerned with splits here. My hope is that the Astros play it safe with Brantley and sit him for another game. They have a 6.5 game lead so I don’t see them rushing him back. If he sits and Jose Siri ($2k) plays tonight he becomes a free square.
This isn’t about chasing his performance from last night. It’s about what he unlocks with the rest of the lineup. He frees up salary for guys like Alvarez ($3.6k), Bregman ($4.2k), and Tucker ($3.4k). All three of those guys are the guys hitting righties the hardest now and would be the core to my Astros stack. The Astros will probably be chalky tonight, but we have a full slate of games and ownership should be more spread out.
Washington Nationals vs. Jesus Luzardo – I’m looking to the Nationals again tonight for some value. Let’s start with the match up and then we’ll get into pricing later. Luzardo has not been good with the Marlins. Over the last 30 days he has a near 5 xFIP and is giving up hard hits and fly balls more than 35% of the time. He’s also walking a ton of batters with a 4.68 BB/9.
I really only want to focus on the righties in the Nats lineup. Luzardo has a near 70% GB rate vs. lefties and I really don’t want any part of that. What I do want is a part of the 45% fly ball rate he’s giving up to righties over the last 30 days. The guy I repeatedly look at for value and continues to be under priced is Lane Thomas ($2.3k). He’s near min priced and since 8/31 he has 9 games with at least double digit FD points with just one goose egg. He’s also been extremely solid vs. lefties with a .308 ISO and a .600 wOBA against them over the last 30 days.
Other value plays I like here are min priced Riley Adams ($2k) and Carter Keiboom ($2.4k). Both guys have ISO’s over .250 vs. lefties over the last 30 days. They probably won’t win you a GPP on their own merits. What they will do though is give you enough salary relief to fit in the players that will.
MLB DFS: The Wrap Up
My pitching tonight is focused on the top tier. I don’t trust any one else and we’ll have enough value to fit a top pitcher and a top stack tonight. The Nats players I like fit well with either the Giants or Astros. With the NFL on a break for a few days we’re back to having some solid tournaments to play. I hope these picks help you get to the top.
Good luck and hope to see you in the green!
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