Gary Gustafson 
Welcome to the Thursday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!
If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather to walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!
Early Slate Breakdown
Welcome into another split slate MLB DFS Picks and Pivots slate here on Thursday where baseball will share the stage with Thursday Night Football and a NASCAR Truck Series race which gives us all-day DFS to play across multiple sports and honestly, what could be better?
The 5 game Early Slate has the better contest selection on DraftKings and while it may not be what we are used to – I will say, I still think it is very much playable and we have some solid GPP’s and satellite contests for NFL that make it something I want to attack.
We have a couple of things to watch out for here – first is the weather, with rain/storms expected on and off all day in Atlanta which is the first game on the slate between the Rockies/Braves. Second is the start times – with the slate locking at 12:20 PM EST – this is a back-loaded slate with 3 of the 5 games starting at 2:10 PM EST and the Padres/Giants not going off until 3:45 PM EST which means lineups may not be out before lock.
The two best arms on the slate are pretty clearly Kevin Gausman and Tyler Mahle but the first glance may make you balk a bit at spending $10K per arm on these two considering neither has a 30% K rate the last month which is usually the metric we look for when paying up for elite K arms. However, slate context is important and when we get into my preferred bats you are going to see a very clear value path with bats that makes paying for the floor/safety of these top tier arms on a short slate the preferred path. It also may end up a contrarian route if we see the chalk push to the mid-range again with Ian Anderson against the Rockies as happened his last start against Miami.
Gausman at $10.6K feels like a wild overpay honestly as this is far more a 20-25 DK arm than the 30+ ceiling we would want at this price point and it’s a wild jump from his previous $8.1K rate on the last main slate he was on. However, this is an arm who has put up back to back 9 K outings (one in Coors) with 25-28 DK points in each and he gets a match-up with a Padres team he has already faced twice and put up 23 and 27 DK points with 6 and 7 K’s respectively.
Gausman gets the added bump of pitching at home where his K rate jumps to 31% in a pitcher’s park so the path to success here is clear even with the salary being inflated – he is still worth the SP1 status.
Mahle at $9.8K is the logical pivot and I think the price discount and match-up against the Pirates will make him the more popular pay-up and the likely pairing with Ian Anderson chalk (again – this is my early ownership read). The Pirates are not typically a high K match-up but the projected line-up for the Pirates has some potentially staggeringly high K rates with the team at a 27% K rate against RHP over the last month with 7 of the 8 batters sporting 25% or more K rates before we even tack on the pitcher. If this is the lineup Mahle and his 27% K rate gets – I could see a massive ceiling for him in Pittsburgh.
One of the reasons I think we have the luxury of paying up for arms is the game stack potential of Oakland/Kansas City and the punt plays on the R0yals side specifically that open up any and every path you want. With four projected bats in the Kansas City lineup at $2.5K or below, this becomes the ideal spot for value stacking to give you two top-tier arms with big bat stacks around them!
The Oakland A’s are the priority stack against LHP Daniel Lynch as this is a pitcher who has given up a .250 ISO, 50% fly ball rate and 45% HC rate to right-handed hitters the last month and the A’s are going to roll out a barrage of them.
The one unknown is the status of Matt Chapman ($5.7K) who remains DTD but if he does play, he is play #1 on this Oakland side as his batted ball profile screams HR upside. Chapman has a team-high .277 ISO against LHP this season and his 50% FB rate overlayed with Lynch’s tendencies to get the ball in the air – well, you already know – this is an HR on lay away. Screenshot it. Save it. Wait for the HR alert later – enjoy.
While the value on the A’s side is not as obvious – the OF is mid-range with Khris Davis and Chad Pinder at $3.9K and $3.1K respectively, is where I would go next because these are bats with 50-55% HC rates this season with historically strong splits against LHP and you can use them at the bottom of the order in an Oakland wrap-around stack. Remember, Oakland is the visiting team so guaranteed 9th inning of at-bats – so do not be afraid to work a wrap-around stack with the A’s bottom of the order as a way to be different in GPP’s.
The Royals side of this game is where the value is, but let’s not move past them without Salvador Perez getting locked into our Catcher spot. RHP Paul Blackburn is a reverse splits arm who relies heavily on his sinker and oh boy – Salvy time. Perez has a .317 ISO, 52% HC rate, and just a 15% whiff rate on this pitch type. Do you want another HR call? Of course, you do – Salvador is going deep today on a sinker – yeah, that’s right I am even calling the pitch type.
After that though – it becomes far more about mixing and matching value with Carlos Santana, Hunter Dozier, Kyle Isbel and Ryan O’Hearn all with $2K-ish price points that open up the world. The nice part about game stacking this spot – we don’t care about when lineups are out for the other games – all we need is this one game and we go all-in on it with so many potential paths around the top arms. Easy peesy.
Main Slate Breakdown
We turn our attention to the 3 game “Main Slate” in name only as this 6:05 PM EST slate as a far less interesting contest selection and honestly – I could see people just outright skipping it with TNF at the ready – but, we are all about transparency here and if I find a path I like – I am going to tell you we can play it. Conversely, if I don’t – I will tell you to skip it.
So here are the cons of this slate – it is only 3 games, the contest selection is blah and the pitching pool is littered with openers and long relievers.
The pros – the Tampa Bay Rays are on it.
So can we just all agree we play this 3 gamer – stack 5 Rays right-handed batters against LHP Tyler Alexander, who has a .214 ISO and 45% HC rate allowed to RHB this season and print all the money? Good? Good.
The truth is – I think the builds are easy with a Rays onslaught and even more so when you narrow down the pitching pool. Framber Valdez ($10.2K) is the de facto ace, another arm that feels too pricey considering his 20% K rate the last month but the match-up against Texas kinda negates all that and it is a spot he has already shown upside in with 7K’s and 27 DK points a few starts ago against the Rangers and a 4 K, 22 DK point performance back in July.
After that – your options get bleak – fast – and it likely comes down to the only other true SP’s – Kyle Hendricks or Adonis Medina. To me – going with Medina ($5.4K) feels like the right move when you factor in price point and the match-up against the Cubs which we know has been the single best match-up a pitcher could have over the last month.
Now, Medina is not a great prospect, in fact, he is a mediocre one at best with a 20% K rate in the minors and he is someone who has struggled at AA and currently sits in the mid-range of Philly prospects but there was a time when Medina was highly touted within their system and the secondary stuff he has – certainly plays. Plus – every time I type his name – I hear Tone Loc saying Funky Cold Medina. So there is that.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up
Today’s MLB DFS split late Picks and Picks action gives us a chance to make GPP waves when most will likely be spending the day making New York Giants and Washington Football Team showdown lineups (gross). I think these slates are actually quite playable and while I would scale back bankroll – I do think the GPP’s and the NFL satellites are worth playing both slates for today.
Good luck tonight all! Let’s keep that hot streak rolling! Come join the Win Daily Sports Team – grab a Gold Membership and take advantage of all the tools, articles, and expert coaching we can give you to make you a consistent winner in DFS.
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