Joel Bartilotta 
Welcome to the Sunday Funday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a nice sized 12 game slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.
My goal today will be to walk you through my 3 favorite pitchers and 3 favorite stacks on the day. With today’s slate we are going to see a much smaller tournament pool with NFL in play. Today’s a day to scale back as the risk just won’t worth the reward. That said, this is a really fun slate
Let’s dig in to today’s slate!
MLB DFS: The Aces
Gerrit Cole ($11.5k) vs. Cleveland Indians – I hope box score watchers fade Cole today because he’s primed for a ceiling game today. Cole’s last two outings have been a little subpar, but for good reason. His outing against the Blue Jays he injured his hamstring and then against the Orioles he was a bit rusty early on. After shaking off some rust in that game he really came back strong.
W/ a match up today against the Indians he really should have a nice bounce back. While the Indians put up a huge number yesterday, it was against a much lesser pitcher in Gil. They’ve still really struggled against righties over the past month. They have a 26% K rate and just a .123 ISO. That 26% K rate is what I’m focused. As a team that’s a pretty high number and with them facing an elite strike out pitcher in Cole that number should jump. Look for Cole to bounce back today and have a ceiling type game.
Sandy Alcantara ($10.8K) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates – The Pirates aren’t a high strike out team. They also aren’t a team that does much damage, especially against righties as they have just a .134 ISO against them over the last month. While I’m a little concerned with the Pirates lack of strike outs the one thing I often preach is that strike out pitchers find their strike outs.
Alcantara is an elite strike out pitcher. He has a slate leading 36% K rate over the past month. If we look at his last outing it’s a prime example of strike out pitchers finding their strike outs. Washington is also a stingy lineup that doesn’t K much. They actually strike out less than the Pirates. Alcantara struck out 7 in 8 innings and only allowed 1 hit.
If Alcantara pitched in a different market he’d be more of a household name. Alcantara is primed to ease through a very weak Pirates lineup. With a $700 savings he’s going to be my SP1 today.
Nathan Eovaldi ($10.5k) vs. Baltimore Orioles – No team is striking out more over the past week than the Orioles. They have a 35% K rate and also not putting up much offense when they do make contact. The O’s are just a team chasing history.
In Eovaldi we’re getting a pitcher in peak form. He has a 3.04 xFIP over the last month and a 32% K rate. While the Orioles’ lineup occasionally shows some life, I just don’t see them doing it today. Eovaldi should be able to mow through this lineup with ease and give the Orioles their 102nd loss today.
I know, I gave you three pitchers over $10k today. It’s Sunday, in August, on a 12 game slate. There’s going to be a ton of value today with many teams completely out of the playoff picture. I also just don’t think there’s any reason to get fancy with pitching today as the 3 pitches I laid out are in prime spots.
MLB DFS: The Bats
Boston Red Sox vs. Alex Wells – This is going to be a chalky place for offense today. They will be a tough fade today because Wells isn’t good and the Red Sox are battling for the Wild Card spot. They should put out their regular lineup as their regulars can get a breather tomorrow. The righties for Boston are in an absolute smash spot today.
Over the last 30 days Wells is getting ‘lit’ up by righties. They have a .429 ISO and .464 wOBA against him. They also have a 44% fly ball rate and 56% hard hit rate. The popular guys here will be Hernandez ($3.6k), Renfroe ($4.2k), Bogaerts ($4.1k), and Dalbec ($3.5k). Of these 4 Renfroe and Dalbec are my favorites as they’ve been crushing lefties over the last month. Renfroe has a .360 ISO and Dalbec has a .500.
One way to get fancy and differentiate yourself with a Sox lineup today is to play some lefties like Devers ($4.2k) and Schwarber ($4k). If the Red Sox live up to expectations today and do smash, Wells won’t last more than a few innings and those lefties will eventually get the platoon advantage.
New York Yankees vs. Eli Morgan – The Yankees are another team that is currently in a battle for the Wild Card as they are a half game behind the Red Sox and Blue Jays. At this point of the season these are the teams we to focus our salary on as they aren’t just “playing out the string.” It also helps that the Yankees get a great match up today vs. Eli Morgan.
Morgan will be a solid pitcher, he’s just not ready and he’s not solid yet. The last 30 days have been a struggle for him as his xFIP is sitting at 6.11. He’s giving up way too many fly balls and way too much hard contact. His FB rate is over 48% and his hard hits are over 46%. In his last 17 innings of work he’s given up 5 homers and 9 barrels. Just not what you want to see out of your starter.
Lefties have given him the most heart burn as they have a .400 ISO against him over the last month. We’ll need to see if Gallo ($3.3k) is back in there today and if he is he becomes my core to this stack. He has a .481 ISO against righties over the past month and is in great form right now. I’ll also look to include Rizzo ($3.4k) and Gardner ($2.3k).
If Higgy ($2k) is in there today I also love him for value. He’s min priced and frees up so much salary wise for us. If Gallo is in the lineup today the Yankees become a priority for me over the Red Sox. I know he’s just one player but if he’s in, he’s going yard and really makes this lineup solid.
Seattle Mariners vs. Jackson Kowar – I’m looking to the Mariners today for value. They have a bunch of guys in their lineup that are in prime spots today and get a great match up vs. Kowar. After an absolutely dominant outing vs. the Indians at the start of September, Kowar has seen in a slip in performance. His last 2 outings have been a struggle and I think the Mariners can get to him today.
I’m looking at the Mariners lefties as Kowar’s fly ball rate sky rockets to 57% against them vs. just 18% for righties. Lefties also have an average hit distance of 213 feet vs. him so we know they’re a weakness for him. The guys I’m most focused on here are Crawford ($2.6k), Fraley ($2.2k), Toro ($2.6k), and Kelenic ($2.8k).
These 4 are all under $3k and if we are going to spend up on teams like the Red Sox and Yankees, we need some cheap guys. Kelenic is my favorite of the bunch as he’s finally starting to hit like the top prospect he is. Mariners should be put a big number vs. Kowar today.
I didn’t write up the SDP/STL game but there should be offense in that game. We have two past their prime pitchers. I’d prioritize Cardinals bats in that game as they are more of a sure thing vs. Arrieta.
MLB DFS: The Wrap Up
While the contests are smaller today, this is shaping up to be a fun slate. We have some ace level pitching and solid bats in play.
Good luck and hope to see you in the green!
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