Gary Gustafson 
Welcome to the Thursday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!
If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather to walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!
Main Slate Breakdown
Hello, again my friends, and welcome into a 9 game MLB DFS Picks and Pivots slate here on Thursday where the playoff race is red-hot and we have almost half the slate tonight presenting us games with playoff implications. The Giants/Dodgers remain just 2 games apart in the NL West and the AL Wild Card is a jumbled mess with the Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Mariners all jockeying for two spots with just days to play!
Pitching Pool
First and foremost – we need to lock into the pitchers tonight that have something to play for as this has been a consistent winning formula this week when picking our arms, Yes, I know Gerrit Cole and Max Scherzer got waxed last night but look at the top-scoring arms – Eovaldi, Fried, Montas and Wood – all of the top 4 scoring DFS arms were ones with something on the line.
So tonight – who does that include? Robbie Ray/Corey Kluber, Ian Anderson/Nick Pivetta, Lance McCullers, Tony Gonsolin, Kyle Gibson and Scott Kazmir.
Of all of the arms, the only one I am out and out discounting is Gonsolin due to his limited pitch count concerns and elevated price but honestly – I can make a case for nearly every other arm. Yes, that includes Scott Kazmir at ($6.3K) as a result of his match-up with Arizona although to be honest, the price is a bit higher than I want to pay for someone who maxed out at just 71 pitches and was on the 1994 Mets Top Prospects list.
Robbie Ray is the big K arm on this slate – the absolute clear-cut SP1 based on every and any K metric and I am fascinated to see what the field does with him today after seeing Max/Cole get smoked last night. I could see ownership tempered with the Yankees bats on deck which would make him an interesting GPP play but I also think right now people are using projections/optimals more than normal and Ray is going to likely draw default ownership as a result of that. I still expect he will be chalk – after seeing guys like Max (60%) and Sale (40%) the last two nights – but if that ownership is too low, I may come back to this spot for the K upside alone.
That brings me to my favorite arm – Lance McCullers Jr. ($9.6K) at home against the Tampa Bay Rays. Wait, is Brian really stacking against his beloved DFS darlings? Yes, yes he is.
Here is the thing – he’s not facing the Rays tonight. He is going to get the “We Just Clinched Home Field Advantage and the #1 Seed” Rays post celebratory lineup tonight. Not only will he likely see a watered-down version of this Tampa lineup but he gets to do so at home in a win and you are in scenario where the Astros can clinch the division.
Breaking down lineups is pointless without knowing what the Rays actually do – but one thing we know for sure, McCullers is going to work deep into this game as he has thrown at least 100 pitches now in 3 straight starts and 7 of his last 9.
For SP2 – it is hard to overlook the pricing discount we are getting on Nick Pivetta ($7K) in this spot against the Orioles. This price point is one of the cheapest we have seen Pivetta at in weeks and his 3 xFIP and 27% K rate the last month give him metrics that far outpace his price point. The only rub with Pivetta is his lack of ability to go deep into games consistently as he has failed to go over 90 pitches in 4 of his last 5 trips to the mound but I think at $7K, that is priced into the algorithm for him tonight.
Stacks and Bats
One more time with feeling – we get the Red Sox bats in a must-win versus the Baltimore Orioles with LHP Alex Wells taking the ball in Camden Yards. The Red Sox were chalky last night on a larger slate, they will likely be again, and for good reason especially with the right-handed bats as Wells has a .270 ISO, 45% HC rate and just an 8% K rate to RHB the last month – WOOF!
All the usual suspects are in play tonight but I will tell you – don’t be afraid to get weird with how you stack this team. There was ALOT of Boston chalk last night as guys like Dalbec, Renfroe, Xander and JD were 30-40% owned in SE GPP play but if you went down to the bottom of the lineup as we talked about here yesterday, you could get guys like Alex Verdugo (3%) or Jose Igelsias (10%) as differentiation pieces in these chalky stacks. Do NOT be afraid to go this route again tonight! Right now the projected lineup for Boston has Dalbec, Vazquez, Verdugo and Iglesias batting 6-9 again which gives you a tidy 1-4 stack at far lower ownership than the big boys.
My favorite correlation stack alongside Boston – is going right back to Tampa Bay, well actually the bats against them. Yes, it is a BIZARRO RAYS DAY where we pick on Tampa instead of stacking them!
The Houston Astros are going to face a combination of Collin McHugh and Ryan Yarbrough today in an opener/bulk situation and in a spot where they have every reason to close this out and the Rays have nothing to play for, I think we see a big Astros offensive day.
McHugh served as an opener against Miami his last time out and have up 5 hits and 2 ER’s in just an inning of work while Yarbrough is an arm we have been pointing out his struggles recently as he has given up 4, 7 and 7 runs in his previous 4 trips to the mound before an effective outing against Miami. Listen, he was able to shut down the Marlins – let’s not pretend like a guy with a 5+ xFIP, 10% K rate and .225 ISO and 43% HC rate against RHB the last month has suddenly figured it out.
The Astros lineup is simply far too loaded from the right-side to overlook here tonight with Altuve, Bregman, Yuli, Correa, McCormack and Maldonado giving you a highly correlated stack from the right side but with McHugh opening up the game – I would not overlook the Yordan Alvarez/Michael Brantley combo in the first inning as McHugh as surrendered a 50% HC rate to LHB this season.
Want to have some fun? How about a Book It?
How about a FIRST INNING BOOK IT.
McHugh throws his cutter to lefties nearly 50% of the time and Yordan Alvarez has a .519 ISO, 57% HC rate and an average distance of 351 feet. Alvarez gets a cutter and goes yard in the first inning. Book it. See you later for the victory lap ya filthy animals.
The third stack that has my eye tonight is – gulp – the San Francisco Giants. Listen, this team is one I never get right but the pricing tonight is simply too cheap on these guys at home in a must-win against old pal Madison Bumgarner.
First, the narrative – Bumgarner makes his first start to SF with fans since he left. It will be emotional, he could go out and be vintage MadBum or the guy with a .270+ ISO and 54% HC to RHB the last month could get his teeth kicked in – such is life.
Bumgarner relies primarily on his cutter to right-handed batters but he’s been getting crushed the last month with a .357 ISO and 90% HC rate and this Giants team profiles off the charts against it. Darin Ruf (expected back) has a .571 ISO and 85% HC rate, Kris Bryant has a .438 ISO and 55% HC rate, Buster Posey has a .333 ISO and 57% HC rate, Wilmer Flores has a .364 ISO and 52% HC rate and Austin Slater has a .813 ISO and 53% HC rate. Noticing a trend?Sheesh.
First off – always play a catcher against his old batter mate – ALWAYS. Nobody knows the tendencies more than Buster Posey of what Bumgarner is going to do. If you don’t think over the years they haven’t had a million “how would you get me out conversations” well you don’t know baseball. Also – Wilmer Flores at $2.9K is a FREE SQUARE on DK. The Giants pricing as a whole has a ton of potential value options that give us significant flexibility with Slater, Solano and Estrada all $3K or lower on DK.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up
This 9 game MLB DFS Picks and Pivots slate may end up being one of the last regular-season slates that we can really dive in and go for as we head into the weekend where playoff spots get locked up and MLB DFS contests get smaller with NFL football on the weekend. So take advantage and let’s dive deeper, pivot off the chalk and build our bankroll with GPP wins!
Good luck tonight all! Let’s keep that hot streak rolling! Come join the Win Daily Sports Team – grab a Gold Membership and take advantage of all the tools, articles, and expert coaching we can give you to make you a consistent winner in DFS.
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
