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Hello everybody, and welcome back to ‘Tee 2 Green,’ a new article that I will be producing for Win Daily Sports weekly to give some extra insight into the DFS world of golf. My focus will be to discuss, decipher and dissect some of my preferred targets throughout the various price ranges, and I will always provide my opinion with a data-intensive outlook that you can see first-hand if you use the weekly model that I provide free of charge. You can find that here.
Course – TPC Summerlin
7,251 Yards – Par 71 – Greens: Bentgrass
Bobby Weed masterminded the property on the rugged desert terrain in 1991, with Fuzzy Zoeller serving as his consultant. The course meanders through arroyos and canyons, featuring lush Bentgrass greens to go along with friendly Bermuda rough. I use the word friendly because the rough is only two inches thick, but Bermuda rough can be sticky and cause fliers for those that miss the short grass off the tee. With all that being said, players don’t seem overly concerned about that fact since driving distance is over 13 yards above tour average, but it is worth noting that some of the added distance can be directly correlated to the slight altitude change and firm fairways from the Vegas heat. I think that gives an artificial boost to the shorter hitters, who will get more rollout than they are accustomed to having during a regular stop on tour.
The three par-fives and two short par-fours are the most accessible holes, and four of these are included during the final six-hole stretch. Overall, golfers that can demonstrate ball-striking ability and strategy off the tee should exploit TPC Summerlin since nine of the past 11 winners have taken home the title at 20-under par or better, but these birdie shootouts that don’t highlight a particular skillset are always a little more challenging to handicap. I tried to keep things predictive in a roundabout way, but there are some loopholes to get past since tournaments such as the Shriners Open could open up the field for more players to find success.
- Strokes gained Tee to Green (17.5%) – I slightly reconfigured it from how the PGA Tour looks at the stat to try and make it more conducive towards TPC Summerlin. We saw the dispersion in scoring last year be about 15% for both off the tee and around the green – while still coming in at a heavy 37% for approach. I reallocated those percentages to remove putting from the equation entirely, which essentially gave me a weighted T2G metric that incorporated 23% of my total on both OTT and ATG and then 54% on approach.
- Total Driving (17.5%) – That is a 65/35 split of accuracy over distance. Yes, players average 13 yards more off the tee here, but I view that more positively for the shorter hitters. Vegas plays in added elevation, and the heat from the town tends to dry up the fairways and create extra rollout. Distance certainly will help, but the Bermuda grass can make a stickier shot than meets the eye, even if the rough isn’t thick.
- SG: Total At Easy Courses L50 (10%) – With nine of the last 11 wins coming at 20-under par or better, it takes a specific type of player
- SG: Total At TPC Courses L50 (10%) -The TPC filter works nicely since all of the TPC properties are somewhat similar in the sense that they are made for birdies.
- Short Par-Four + Par-Five Birdie or Better (10%) – That is about as low as you will ever see me go for a non-par 70, but most holes out here provide the opportunity to make birdie. I thought pinpointing a specific par-total of any kind for a considerable weight was dangerous because it minimizes the impact that other holes will have.
- Overall Birdie or Better (15%) – Instead, I added 15 percent here. I liked the complete picture this route took of where I still have 25% of my total statistical data being derived by scoring, but it isn’t condensed into a specific range.
- Scrambling (10%) – I considered sand save percentage because over 100 are scattered throughout the property, but I figured scrambling made more sense since golfers will frequently play out of the rough.
- SG: Total on Bentgrass Greens (10%) – This is just another way of looking for potential positive putting regression. I don’t mind adding in three-putt avoidance because these are larger green complexes, but I decided to keep the model and use stats like that as more of an eye test than anything else.
High-Priced DraftKings Players ($10,000+)
Viktor Hovland ($10,600) – Similar to last week, five of my top-nine golfers are in this range, but I will say that I am not as convinced that we are required to start in the $10,000 section. I don’t see a massive difference between most of these players and the dropdown in the 9k range, but it doesn’t mean I don’t have a few golfers that I will be using. Viktor Hovland feels the hardest for me to shake, as he might be sitting on a significant result, averaging 3.79 shots with his irons over his last eight and 2.65 OTT in his previous 16. Hovland has gained off the tee in 19 of his past 21 and ranks sixth in total driving.
Webb Simpson ($10,200) – If I am forced to give a chalk answer near the top, I don’t mind going down the Webb Simpson route. We have seen this narrative countless times where he is almost bulletproof at specific venues. The Wyndham Championship is the more pronounced definition of that, but even here, he has recorded four straight top-20 results. I think Simpson is one of the must-have cash options, but I can also get creative enough with builds to use him in GPPs.
Favorite Cash Play– Webb Simpson ($10,200)
$9,000 Range
Louis Oosthuizen ($9,900) – I will find myself littered in this section, as it seems like an optimal strategy to formulate flatter builds. Louis Oosthuizen should have playability across the board because of his 16 straight made cuts, but he also has upside at this specific test. There is a slight worry about his ability to make birdies in bunches for a shootout like this, but he should be safe for cash and still possesses a contrarian nature for GPPs at around 10% ownership. Oosthuizen ranks second on bentgrass greens and first in strokes gained total over his last 24 rounds.
Scottie Scheffler ($9,700) – If you look at my model this week, you will notice Scottie Scheffler doesn’t grade out exceptionally well with the way it was released, but one of the things I like to do is alter certain variables on my version to try and see who moves when something is added or subtracted. Scheffler will remain GPP-only for me because there are a few red flags, but some of them are easy to explain, like the fact that he has never finished better than 74th here in two tries. If you remember, Scheffler played in the Shriners tournament last year after taking three weeks off because of COVID-19. And his 74th place finish in 2019 is more aberrational than anything else when you consider that he entered Saturday eight-under par and within striking distance of the leaders. Scheffler feels underweight in projected ownership, and I think he has the upside to win this event at his best. I don’t view this situation much differently than the one I found with Max Homa at the Genesis, where he was lightly owned, but my reconfigured model loved his potential.
Harris English ($9,300) – Haris English ranks inside the top-25 of my model for strokes gained tee to green over his last 24 rounds and is also inside the top-16 over the last two years for scoring at easy courses, par-five birdie or better, overall birdie or better, scrambling and total driving.
Si Woo Kim ($9,000) – Four top-30s in Si Woo Kim’s last five starts. Two top-15s here in his previous three appearances. Top-10 in my model at short courses. I think he fits nicely into a cash build and is still highly usable in GPPs.
Additional Thoughts: I am okay with the idea of using any of the options in this section now that Kevin Na has withdrawn. Hideki Matsuyama ($9,500) and Sungjae Im ($9,200) are both very playable.
$8,000 Range
Patrick Reed ($8,600) – I consider this GPP-only if his ownership remains sub-10 percent, but he is too good to be priced here and not generate traction.
Joaquin Niemann ($8,300) – East Lake will sometimes eat a golfer alive, but his ball-striking numbers are trending towards a big result if we remove that start. Niemann has gained OTT in 31 of 34, with his irons in 17 of 20, and he probably has about as much upside as anyone we can find in the $8,000s on the board.
Other Thoughts: Cameron Tringale ($8,500) and Paul Casey ($8,900) will be sprinkled into builds, but I am going so heavy in the $9,000 range that I don’t have a ton of room for multiple selections here. Reed and Niemann are two of the better upside choices.
$7,000 Range
Russell Henley ($7,900) – Russell Henley was shaky in his last start at the BMW Championship, but he had gained at least five shots tee to green in his previous five events. We keep running into this trend with some of these options where I am not sure they can make enough birdies to win the event, but the reason I am willing to forgive Henley for ranking 72nd in my model for overall birdie or better percentage is because of how he performs at a more straightforward test. It is the same theory that I had with Scheffler in the sense that some of his data will get skewed at the more challenging tracks that they play, and we should see a more robust outcome when faced at a birdie fest because of his ball-striking nature.
Brian Harman ($7,600) – Brian Harman always feels universally underpriced for how I run my model. As Sia said on the podcast this week, ” don’t be surprised to see Harman crack into the next range at some point.”
Ian Poulter ($7,000) – Ian Poulter is trending across the board with his strokes gained data. He is the 53rd most expensive player on DraftKings and is 30th in the betting market. That is the third-largest disparity behind only Hayden Buckley and Adam Hadwin.
Additional Thoughts: I will mostly be using this range as random dart throws when not playing the three above. I don’t envision having to use any of these often, but they are options I am either rounding a lineup up with or playing as my second-to-last choice. Stewart Cink ($7,100), Kevin Kisner ($7,400), Sebastian Munoz ($7,000), Rasmus Hojgaard ($7,100), Cameron Davis ($7,300), Sahtith Theegala ($7,500), Seamus Power ($7,400), Cameron Young ($7,000), Talor Moore ($7,300). Volatile options with high upside and high missed cut potential.
$6,000 Range
Adam Hadwin ($6,800) – I never play Adam Hadwin. In fact, I usually fade him in H2H wagers, but I love how this course sets up for him. Three top-35s here since 2016, and while he is volatile missing three of his last six cuts, Hadwin has two top-10s recently. The Canadian ranks second in strokes gained total on Bentgrass and fourth in short par-four scoring
Additional Dart Throws To Consider: William McGirt ($6,100), Adam Long ($6,000), Hayden Buckley ($6,600), Harry Hall ($6,000), Mark Hubbard ($6,100), Hank Lebioda ($6,300), James Hahn ($6,400), Kyle Stanley ($6,100), Adam Schenk ($6,800), Matt Kuchar ($6,600), Nick Taylor ($6,300). I am telling you now that if we get half those guys through the cut, I will consider it a success. Hall, Long, Hubbard and Stanley are projected to miss by my math, but they are extremely close. The other handful are barely in on the other side, but I hope that adds a little insight into playable options that my model expects to outproduce their price tag. I won’t find myself down here often this week, but there are random dart throws to target.
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