Week 5 NFL DFS Thursday Night Showdown: Rams at Seahawks

The NFL DFS season continues with the Thursday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the first Week 5 NFL DFS contests!

NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see the Week 1 TNF showdown article.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 5 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

Week 5 NFL DFS Chalk: Russell Wilson (FD $15,500, DK $17,700)

Pivot: Matthew Stafford (FD $16,000, DK $17,100)

Pivot #2: Cooper Kupp (FD $14,000, DK $18,600)

Contrarian #1: Tyler Lockett (FD $12,000, DK $14,400)

Contrarian #2: Robert Woods (FD $10,000, DK $11,400)

It’s going to be close between Russell Wilson and Matthew Stafford for who gets the chalk at captain, and just like in previous showdowns, FanDuel and DraftKings have the top priced QB flip-flopped, with Stafford the top dog on FD and Wilson more expensive on DK — where noted Stix nemesis Cooper Kupp is actually the most expensive option. Stafford’s receiving options are healthier on a short week, while Wilson is dealing with a bunch of minor-to-medium injuries to his skill position weapons, including Tyler Lockett, who toughed out a hip injury on Sunday, DK Metcalf (foot, limited in practice Monday through Wednesday) and Chris Carson (questionable/GTD for TNF with a neck injury). One of my favorite captain plays is actually Robert Woods, who the team keeps promising will get more involved. Both he and punt play Rams WRs Van Jefferson and DeSean Jackson are capable of large-field GPP brilliance if they catch a couple of big ones and allow you to get the main guys in there.

Rams notes: Darrell Henderson, Jr. (ribs) actually doesn’t have an injury designation for tonight, as he went through the same practice routine for a second consecutive week — being listed as limited on the first two daily injury reports before putting in a full session on the final one on Wednesday. He should handle the bulk of carries and snaps, but Sony Michel could always vulture a score or notch a few important touches. The matchup is great for almost all the Rams options, so the best bet is to mix-and-match based on narrative and find a good balance with these teams, as it’s projected to be a shootout (54.5 game total). TE Tyler Higbee and K Matt Gay are also in play.

Seahawks notes: The biggest news leading up to game time will be the status of Carson, and Alex Collins could be a nice bargain play if the first-stringer somehow sits this one out. I’m assuming that Metcalf will draw the coverage of Jalen Ramsey, so I have a little more interest in Lockett and Freddie Swain than normal, as well as TE Will Dissly, who only caught two passes (on two targets) for 5 yards in Sunday’s 28-21 win over the 49ers. Dissly should be more involved in this game and is very cheap at just $3,800. Jason Myers could get some additional FG tries if this one stays close, too.

Week 5 NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on an NFL DFS narrative that makes sense.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together

DON’T: Worry about spending every dollar.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Tread too much in the sub-$1K range this week. Another week with no bargains UNLESS Carson sits, and we could see DeeJay Dallas active, but he’s a super long shot.

Now that we’ve established some Week 5 NFL DFS narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

1. Matthew Stafford
2. Russell Wilson
3. Robert Woods
4. Cooper Kupp
5. Tyler Lockett
6. Darrell Henderson, Jr.
7. DK Metcalf
8. Chris Carson (questionable)
9. Tyler Higbee
10. Van Jefferson
11. Freddie Swain
12. DeSean Jackson
13. Will Dissly
14. Matt Gay
15. Jason Myers
16. Alex Collins (bumps up to spot 9 if Carson inactive)
17. Rams DST
18. Sony Michel
19. Seahawks DST
20. Other Seahawks RBs (if Carson incactive)

Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for Week 5 action!