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Another nice output for our Week 6 NFL DFS Cash Games – we absolutely love seeing all of the winning screenshots! The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:
- High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
- VALUE PLAYS
- Not a part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE.
- Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually fine to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter @stixpicks to discuss further.
In my opinion, cash games are extremely important for long-term bankroll building and sustainability. I’ll consistently use at least 50% of my weekly bankroll towards cash games. It’s not sexy, but it works and allows me to take big shots in high dollar GPPs.
Long story short, if we hit our cash games each week, the worst we can do is break-even (not counting your GPP shots with the remaining 50% of your weekly bankroll). The weeks you hit both, you smash. The weeks you miss your GPPs, your cash game lineup will carry you. It’s my job to ensure you always hit those cash games.
If you haven’t yet, I would strongly advise giving my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason before diving into the 2020 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter. Without further ado, let’s do this thing!
*Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 7, please see below for my notes on roster construction:
- Now that the Bye weeks are here, the player pool is a bit more narrow. There are a still ton of great value plays at the Wide Receiver and Running Back positions this week, which should allow us to come up with multiple, cash-optimal builds.
- Cash Game Chalk Talk (Estimate Ownership in Cash): Jalen Hurts (30%), Patrick Mahomes (20%), Lamar Jackson (20%), Darrell Henderson (40%), D’Andre Swift (40%), Darrel Williams (35%), Leonard Fournette (25%), Calvin Ridley (40%), Sterling Shepard (35%), Cooper Kupp (25%), Davante Adams (25%), Dallas Goedert (30%), Ricky Seals-Jones (35%)
- Just because a player is not mentioned in this article, does not mean they are not cash viable.
- AETY Model Projections change throughout the week, please ensure you check out our final projections before lock!
- I update this article periodically through the week. Be sure to check back on Saturday night for any additions/revisions!!
NFL DFS Cash Game Quarterbacks
Patrick Mahomes ($8,400 DK / $8,800 FD)
It’s Patrick Mahomes going up against the 27th ranked passing defense (in terms of DVOA) with a game total of 57 points (the highest on the slate… by far). The AETY Model has Mahomes as the clear QB1 on this slate, projecting for over 300 passing yards and again, just about three passing touchdowns. If Mahomes is anchoring your NFL DFS cash game lineup, you’re off to a great start, like last week.
Jalen Hurts ($6,900 DK / $8,300 FD)
Not sure what else Hurts needs to do for DraftKings to raise his price up to the mid $7K range. Regardless of what he does through the air, he provides damn near 2x minimum return to his salary with his legs, especially in this matchup against a Raiders’ defense who gives up a significant amount of damage on the ground to opposing quarterbacks. When 40% of the NFL DFS Cash Game field is likely to use Hurts as their quarterback, I’m all for eating the chalk here and taking the discount if you cannot afford Patrick Mahomes.
Honorable Mention: Kyler Murray, Matt Stafford, Matt Ryan
Running Backs
Derrick Henry ($9,200 DK / $11,000 FD)
What else is there to say about King Henry? No idea how to afford him on FanDuel, but I also have no idea on how you fade him here against the Chiefs’ 31st ranked run defense.
Darrell Henderson Jr. ($6,600 DK / $8,000 FD)
Henderson grades out to be the highest owned running back on the slate as a ridiculous 16.5 point home-favorite against a Detroit Lions’ defense that grades out 26th in run defense DVOA. We always love running backs as a big home favorite and we should continue to attack those spots on a weekly basis here with Henderson. My only concern is the legit blowout factor and spelling a lot of second-half carries to Sony Michel.
Darrel Williams ($5,900 DK / $6,700 FD)
Like most weeks, you’re going to want exposure to the Chiefs’ offense somewhere in your NFL DFS cash game lineup. Williams is by far the most affordable player on that offense with significant touchdown equity and a floor of 14+ points.
Miles Sanders ($5,100 DK / $5,900 FD)
It’s gross, but apparently it’s Miles Sanders chalk week. I personally love this dude and his talent is apparent every single Sunday when he takes the field, but apparently Nick Sirianni doesn’t love him nearly as much as I do. Despite the multiple disappointing weeks, it’s hard to not jam in Sanders for the salary relief. This total is sitting around 48 points and the AETY Model doesn’t project it to be significantly up-paced like recent Eagles games. With that said, I think it’s relatively safe enough to project Sanders’ for his first 17+ touch game since Week 1. The price is likely never going to be this low again and should help us find a way to get to Derrick Henry.
Honorable Mention: Leonard Fournette, Josh Jacobs, Chubba Hubbard
NFL DFS Wide Receivers
Davante Adams ($8,900 DK / $9,000 FD)
I doubt you can afford both Henry and Adams, but I will make it a priority to have one of them in my NFL DFS Cash Game lineup. The AETY Model absolutely loves this Packers’ offense this week as they host one of the worst secondaries in the NFL with the Washington Football Team, grading out fourth in the Adjusted Expected Team Totals Tool.
Calvin Ridley ($6,600 DK / $7,300 FD)
Calvin Ridley is back and should plant himself right back into a 25% or higher target share in one of the faster-paced games on the slate in Miami. With Xavien Howard likely to miss this game, a Miami secondary that already grades in the bottom eight in pass defense DVOA should have their hands full with Ridley’s elite route running. There is a bit of risk with the layoff, a healthy Russell Gage, and the emergence of Kyle Pitts of late, but the cash game field doesn’t seem to care. The high ownership should not hinder your ability to cash in these types of contests.
AJ Brown ($6,300 DK / $7,000 FD)
A clear WR1 going up against the Chiefs’ 31st ranked pass defense (in terms of DVOA) and a game total sitting at 57 points… If you’re not playing Henry in cash, play AJ Brown.
Sterling Shepard ($5,600 DK / $6,500 FD)
Much more appealing on DraftKings with the full-point PPR scoring setup, but Shepard is one of the 4 wide receivers on this slate who the AETY Model anticipates a 30% target-share for. Carolina’s secondary is solid but susceptible to slot-receiver damage with A.J. Bouye struggling this season.
*UPDATE: Moving to Chris Godwin with no Antonio Brown. Likely a cash lock for me.
Devonta Smith ($5,400 DK / $5,800 FD)
Just way, way too cheap on both DFS websites. Devonta Smith is an elite WR1 going up against a banged up secondary who struggles when they’re healthy. Smith lines up all over the field and will have plenty of opportunities to burn this secondary with our without Casey Hayward in coverage.
Honorable Mention: Rashod Bateman (value chalk), Cooper Kupp, Tyreek Hill, Mecole Hardman, Jakobi Meyers, DeAndre Hopkins
Tight Ends
Naturally, if you can afford Travis Kelce or Darren Waller, you start and end your tight end roster position there. If not, here’s the two others on my radar for Week 7 NFL DFS Cash Game lineups.
Dallas Goedert ($4,600 DK / $5,900 FD)
Goedert has cleared the COVID-19 protocol and will suit up as the other true passing catching tight end on this Eagles’ roster now that Zach Ertz was traded to Arizona. This is likely the brink of a much higher role in route-running for Dallas Goedert and the price is likely to never be this cheap as he should be in line for 14+ DraftKings points against Las Vegas and their secondary ranked 23rd against the tight end position.
Ricky Seals-Jones ($3,700 DK / $5,400 FD)
Much more appealing on DraftKings, but still playable on FanDuel with his high touchdown equity, is Mr. Week 6 Chalk, Ricky Seals-Jones. Green Bay grades 26th in pass defense DVOA against opposing tight ends and as mentioned in the Davante Adams write-up, Green Bay should score at will in this matchup. With that likely gamescript, RSJ should be heavily involved in the passing attack as their wide receiver core is rather banged up.
Honorable Mention: Mike Gesicki, Kyle Pitts, Cole Kmet
Defense / Special Teams
I’ll rarely write about defense and special teams in the Cash Game Checkdown. I believe it’s much more important to lock in your key skill position players and hopefully a solid defense fits your build. Prices considered, here’s who I’ll take a look at:
Carolina Panthers
Arizona Cardinals
Baltimore Ravens
New York Giants
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stoweby and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.
