brgrewe@gmail.com 
To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive!” and it’s a great day to get ready for the Week 7 NFL DFS GPP slate! For those who haven’t read it yet, please check out the Week 7 Cash Game Checkdown for your bankroll sustaining, cash game build advice before building your NFL DFS GPP lineups.
*Having said that, I saw a lot of lineups last week in the Discord strictly with the GPP article players. PLEASE note, the players in the Cash Game Checkdown are in play for GPP’s as well. They are high-floor and usually, high-ceiling players we always want to play. This article is simply to provide a different perspective on some ways you can make your GPP lineup different.
In addition, I would strongly advise giving my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason before diving into the 2021 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter.
For those looking to get different and make a splash in some GPPs, the time is now. We’ll usually be taking some heavy stances on lower-ownership players, but at times, there is certainly good “chalk” to eat. This will not be an article where I write about Christian McCaffrey, Derrick Henry, Dalvin Cook, Travis Kelce, etc… they’re likely always in a smash spot and worth rostering if that’s what your build calls for. Now, let’s get into it.
Games I’m most interested in getting exposure to:
KC/TEN
GB/WAS
ATL/MIA
CHI/TB
NFL DFS GPP Quarterbacks
Matt Ryan ($5,300 DK / $7,300 FD) [Projected Ownership: 2-5%]
As much as I’m not a fan of Matt Ryan, this is an excellent spot for the Falcons offense (that welcomes back Calvin Ridley) traveling to Miami to face their 26th ranked pass defense (in terms of DVOA) and a banged up Xavien Howard. The AETY Model projects this game to be quite up-pace and offer plenty of volume for Matt Ryan and this Falcons’ passing attack. The Falcons have a relatively high implied team total and also grade 7th on the Adjusted Expected Team Totals tool from Win Daily. The Falcons’s rank dead last in run offense DVOA and simply have no efficiency on the ground… If they’re going to put up big numbers, it’ll be via the pass.
I prefer Ryan’s price-tag on DraftKings but he’s certainly viable on FanDuel as well. As I stress on a weekly basis, the “stack-ability” with Matt Ryan is simple: Calvin Ridley and/or Kyle Pitts. I guess I’ll give an honorable mention to Ghost’s boy, Cordarrelle Patterson.
Aaron Rodgers ($7,500 DK / $7,900 FD) [Projected Ownership: 2-5%]
If you’re in the Win Daily Sports Discord, you know I’m all aboard the Aaron Rogers train this week against Washington’s awful secondary (28th in pass defense DVOA). The AETY Model absolutely loves this Packers’ offense this week grading them 4th in total offensive touchdown equity this weekend and also projects Rodgers’ for over 280-passing yards despite most sportsbooks having the prop around 250 yards… I’m expecting Rodgers to come out firing and light up the Week 7 NFL DFS GPP slate, second to only Patrick Mahomes.
Stack him with Davante Adams and hell, you can play Aaron Jones as well. If you want to full game-stack it, Terry McLaurin, Antonio Gibson, Ricky Seals-Jones, and even J.D. McKissic make a lot of sense here depending on the theory of your lineup build.
Tom Brady ($7,700 DK / $8,000 FD) [Projected Ownership: 2-4%]
Yes, there is a ton of blowout potential with the Bucs hosting the Bears, but that doesn’t seem to negatively affect Brady as Bucs are the most efficient passing offenses in the NFL, grading 1st in pass offense DVOA. In addition, they are averaging over four pass attempts per game than the next leading team. It’s simple, Tom Brady is on a mission in 2021 and Bruce Arians knows this offense is at its best when wearing down opponents defenses with 40+ pass attempts per game. All they do is pass and they’re damn good at it.
Now that Antonio Brown is ruled out, the “stack-ability” with Brady is a lot more predictable. It is Mike Evans and Chris Godwin… both are too cheap on all DFS outlets this weekend.
Honorable Mention: Patrick Mahomes, Ryan Tannehill, Matt Stafford
NFL DFS GPP Running Backs
Aaron Jones ($7,500 DK / $8,500 FD) [Projected Ownership: 4-6%]
If I’m not playing Aaron Rodgers paired with Davante Adams, I’ll be making a priority to find a way to roster Aaron Jones. This is a bit more tougher matchup on the ground against Washington’s 12th ranked run defense (in terms of DVOA) but with how much they struggle through the air, they’re incredible susceptible to multiple touchdown (seven opposing running back touchdowns in the past three games) games to opposing running backs. In addition, they graded 3rd to worst in pass defense DVOA to opposing running backs. Aaron Jones can fill it up in all aspects of the game and should be primed for a 20+ point outing here in Week 7.
Derrick Henry ($9,200 DK / $11,000 FD) [Projected Ownership: 15%]
It’s 2021, the year of Derrick Henry. It’s all systems go for Henry in this matchup against 31st ranked run defense. If you can afford him, he’s an obvious lock-play again this week unless you think the Chiefs’ get well ahead early (which is certainly possible) and gamescript block Derrick Henry a bit.
James Conner ($5,600 DK / $6,500 FD) [Projected Ownership: 2-3%]
Always attack home running backs when they’re a double-digit favorite. We’ve seen Conner provide 3x value in similar gamescripts when the Cardinals are dominating. I don’t see how Houston will be able to put up much of a fight against the 1st place Arizona Cardinals, and neither do the bookmakers as Arizona is an 18-point favorite. The AETY Model grades James Conner as the second highest running back touchdown equity, just behind King Henry. As long as Arizona gets ahead, James Conner will be in for a heavy workload against the 29th ranked run defense (DVOA).
Honorable Mention: Darrell Henderson, Joe Mixon, Antonio Gibson, Josh Jacobs, Damien Harris
NFL DFS GPP Wide Receivers
DeAndre Hopkins ($7,700 DK / $8,000 FD) [Projected Ownership: 5%]
Revenge narrative for Mr. Tulloch in full effect! DeAndre Hopkins is priced down to (-150) to score a touchdown at some books and you can bet your ass he’s getting in the box at least once as the Cardinals host Hopkins’ old squad, the Houston Texans. The Cardinals have the highest adjusted expected team total on the slate so, as much as I love James Conner, this spot supports the narrative of D-Hop getting his as well.
Terry McLaurin ($6,500 DK / $7,200 FD) [Projected Ownership: 4-8%]
As much as I love the Packers’ offense in this spot, in theory, I have to like the Washington Football Team playmakers who benefit from a “play from behind” gamescript. I’ll be adding on to my Packers’ stacks with a run-back or two from the Football Team and there’s no better buy-low spot than Terry McLaurin. McLaurin was big-time chalk last week and let everyone down. I’m 100% going right back to McLaurin here against a Packers’ secondary unit missing their top corner, Jaire Alexander in addition to Darnell Savage and Kevin King highly questionable.
Mike Evans ($6,500 DK / $7,100) [5%] & Chris Godwin ($5,900 DK / $6,700 FD) [10%]
If you read the Cash Game Checkdown then you know that I’m likely locking in Chris Godwin to my cash lineup. On the outside of Godwin, Mike Evans is in as good, if not a better spot than Chris Godwin and has some eye-popping short odds at (-120) to score a touchdown. We know the volume will be there for both of these wide receivers in the best passing offense in the NFL that will throw the ball 40+ times regardless of the gamescript.
Honorable Mention: Tyreek Hill, Mecole Hardman, AJ Brown, Ja’Maar Chase, Allen Robinson, Quez Watkins
NFL DFS GPP Tight Ends
Darren Waller ($6,700 DK / $6,800 FD) [Projected Ownership: 3-5%]
On FanDuel, this price is criminal and Waller will likely be closer to 10% owned over there, but on DraftKings, the ownership is crazy low despite everyone playing Jalen Hurts, Miles Sanders, Dallas Goedert, and Devonta Smith. This an excellent afternoon leverage play in an up-paced game where all the chalk is on one side of the game.
*Sounds like he’s doubtful, moving strictly to the plays below.
Honorable Mention: Travis Kelce, Kyle Pitts, Mike Gesicki, Cole Kmet
Thank you all for the support and good luck this week! Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport.
