DFSGhost 
To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive!” and it’s a great day to get ready for the Week 8 NFL DFS GPP slate! For those who haven’t read it yet, please check out the Week 8 Cash Game Checkdown for your bankroll sustaining, cash game build advice before building your NFL DFS GPP lineups.
*PLEASE note, the players in the Cash Game Checkdown are in play for GPP’s as well. They are high-floor and usually, high-ceiling players we always want to play. This article is simply to provide a different perspective on some ways you can make your GPP lineup different.
In addition, I would strongly advise giving my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason before diving into the 2021 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter.
For those looking to get different and make a splash in some GPPs, the time is now. We’ll usually be taking some heavy stances on lower-ownership players, but at times, there is certainly good “chalk” to eat. This will not be an article where I write about Christian McCaffrey, Derrick Henry, Dalvin Cook, Travis Kelce, etc… they’re likely always in a smash spot and worth rostering if that’s what your build calls for. Now, let’s get into it.
Games I’m most interested in getting exposure to:
TEN/IND
CAR/ATL
PHI/DET
NE/LAC
TB/NO
NFL DFS GPP Quarterbacks
Justin Herbert ($7,300 DK / $7,800 FD)
Next to Tom Brady and the Bucs, the AETY Model projects Herbert and the Chargers to continue to play their up-paced, pass-heavy offense with a total of 40 pass attempts. Volume is king. In my opinion, Herbert is the second best quarterback on this slate (behind Josh Allen) and looks to be coming in around 5% in total ownership. With Austin Ekeler banged up (if he even plays), the Chargers will need to lean on Herbert and these talented pass catchers to win a tight-projected game at home against the Patriots.
Carson Wentz ($5,700 DK / $7,200 FD)
Surprisingly, the highest total on this slate features two of the heavier run-offenses in the NFL with the Titans at Colts (total of 51) but the AETY Model agrees that this game has a lot of touchdown equity and potential for a solid pace. Wentz has starting to come on lately and the Colts’ offensive line appears to be 100% healthy and you know I always find an angle to pick on the Titans’ secondary, so here we go Carson.
I’m still skeptical this game turns quite run heavy and the clock dwindles, but going with Wentz offers me a lot of savings for the rest of my build, especially if you stack him with Michael Pittman who’s priced like a fringe WR2.
Honorable Mention: Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Jameis Winston, Sam Darnold
Running Backs
Derrick Henry ($8,900 DK / $10,500 FD)
King Henry under 10% in ownership and under $9K in salary on DraftKings? What a time to be alive. The Colts’ run defense grades #1 in run defense DVOA but just gave up over 100-yards on the ground to Eli Mitchell. It’s not the tastiest of matchups, but it’s a 10% owned Derrick Henry at an affordable price-tag in a matchup with the highest total on the slate.
Nick Chubb ($6,800 DK / $8,000 FD)
Nick Chubb is going to be under 4% in total ownership on both FanDuel and DraftKings this weekend despite no Kareem Hunt to take away significant snaps and more importantly, offensive tackle Jack Conklin is back. This Browns’ offensive line is the best in the business and 100% healthy for the first time since Week 1… when Chubb went for over 100 all-purpose yards and two scores (with Kareem Hunt playing over 47% of the snaps). Light it up, Nick Chubb!
Eli Mitchell ($5,400 DK / $5,800 FD)
As you noticed in the Cash Game Checkdown, I’m locking in Eli Mitchell. Simply way too cheap and offers me many different avenues to roster the studs being wrote up in this article.
Honorable Mention: Damien Harris, Alvin Kamara
NFL DFS GPP Wide Receivers
Stefon Diggs ($8,100 DK / $7,300 FD)
Absurdly priced on FanDuel and likely to be insane chalk (for good reason), but on DraftKings, I’m making it a priority to play Diggs in lineups that I can afford him as he’s coming in under 10% in ownership. Stefon Diggs is a route-running extraordinaire and should be primed up for his first blow-up game of 2021 at home against the Miami Dolphins’ man-coverage.
DJ Moore ($7,200 DK / $7,700 FD)
What more do we need to see from Atlanta’s 30th ranked pass defense (DVOA)? They consistently get torched and this is a perfect buy-back spot for Moore who has one of the highest expected target shares in the NFL. Like most weeks, this game against the Falcons has significant shootout potential.
Keenan Allen ($6,500 DK / $6,900 FD)
I’ll go back to the well on my boy Keenan Allen to pair with one of my favorite quarterbacks on the slate, Justin Herbert. If this game plays at a high pace, this is an excellent price for a low-owned Keenan Allen who should have his way with Jalen Mills on the inside of the New England secondary.
Amon-Ra St. Brown ($3,900 DK / $5,100 FD)
As much as everyone loves this Philadelphia/Detroit matchup, no one is talking about pass catchers for Detroit other than D’Andre Swift. I personally wish Kalif Raymond was a bit cheaper on DraftKings like he is on FanDuel, but I simply can’t afford him on most DraftKings builds.
St. Brown is going to be my Hail Mary, 1% owned wide receiver who offers my builds a lot of value to pay up elsewhere. While no one is likely to go back to the rookie slot receiver after a zero-target game last week, I’m confident this is a big time spot for St. Brown (who has averaged a 70% snap share over the past four weeks) against the inside of the Philadelphia secondary.
Honorable Mention: AJ Brown, Diontae Johnson, Kalif Raymond, Laviska Shenault, Tre’Quan Smith
NFL DFS GPP Tight Ends
T.J. Hockenson ($5,400 DK / $6,200 FD)
It’s a bit of a nasty tight-end slate and as much as I love Kyle Pitts, my main focus this week inside the numbers is T.J. Hockenson. Again, as much as the DFS community loves this game and hosts most of the chalk players on the slate, no one is talking about any Detroit Lions outside of Swift. Other thank Kyle Pitts, Hockenson is the only tight-end the AETY Model projects for over a 20% target share and 25% red-zone share.
Honorable Mention: Kyle Pitts, Jared Cook, Dallas Goedert, Tyler Higbee, Mike Gesicki
Thank you all for the support and good luck this week! Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport.
