David Stowe 
Bye weeks are here ladies and gentlemen! Week 10 is upon us and we have loads of content coming out over the next few days to help you take down your GPP’s and cash in your 50/50’s and Double-Ups. Be sure to hop in discord to get all of the updated information leading up to the first kick. When you have time, be sure to check out Stix’s GPP Play article, as he will provide his own insights on some of the plays below and will likely have some guys that I didn’t even consider. I will not waste a ton of your time here as I know what you are here for so enjoy the WDS: Week 10 NFL Running Back DFS Breakdown 11.14
***Note to all new players: Any players that may list in cash are viable options for GPP play. Just understand that Cash plays are likely to have higher ownership.***
Dalvin Cook is in an amazing position and his ownership is more than reasonable. The Chargers interior is god awful and Dal could easily break free for multiple score this week so he gets the “top of the article treatment” this week just so you all know where I stand. He was initially in the cash section but I don’t think it did him justice for what his output could be this week.
GPP:
When it comes to GPP’s you really have a ton of options. The ownership numbers are a little deceiving. While players like Dalvin Cook, Ezekiel Elliott, and Austin Ekeler are between 15-18% rostered. If you create a lineup without Mark Ingram and D’Ernest Johnson you are immediately separating yourself from 60% of the field or more. If you do not plan on using either this week you can be pretty “chalky” with your running backs and be fine in GPP’s. So know that this week I may have a play or two in GPP that are over my 8% threshold.
Christian McCaffrey, Panthers, ($8400DK/$9,000FD): 5-8%
Christian McCaffrey is back ladies and gentlemen. After seeing him work against the Patriot defense I am ready to throw him in my lineups and to my amazement he is sitting at sub 8% ownership while only 8.4k . The fact that the Panthers had no concerns with giving him 18 targets/touches after a substantial injury that kept him sidelined for 6 weeks is promising. We will not see Christian at anything under 18% for the remainder of the season so jump on this while you have the chance.
Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys, ($7,000DK/$8,000FD): 10%-12%
Zeke is way too cheap for a lead back going against a Falcons defense as an 8.5 point favorite. Thanks to our value backs and last weeks knee bruise we are getting him at about an 8% roster discount in what could easily be his biggest game of the year. Zeke has the best odd to score on the game at -165 and has a total yards prop of 101.5 with a lean on the over in the sports betting market. This looks like a prime spot for Zeke to have a ceiling game and is a perfect run back if you are running Kyle Pitts out at tight end.
Aaron Jones, Packers, ($6,900DK/$8,200FD):
As a Packers fan last week just gave me a taste of our future without Aaron Rodgers and it is not got. Jordan Love played so poorly that even our running game was broken against a team that has been unable to stop running backs all season. Now we get an arguably better matchup in the Seahawks, the return of Rodgers, and a discount in terms of price and ownership with Aaron Jones who is projected at right around 12% at sub 7K. My only concern here is Head Coach Matt LaFluer as always but it Jones gets his 15 carries and 5-7 targets today this is a premium spot for Jones to take over and have a huge day.
Also Consider: Alex Collins, (See Cash Game Studs)
WDS: Week 10 NFL Running Back DFS Breakdown 11.14
Cash:
Cash is a very clear path at running back this week as both Alvin Kamara and Nick Chubb will be absent for their respective teams allowing everyone to pay up at QB, WR, and TE. This week is loaded with games where you will just need to hold your nose and play the value. If you do not want to go with two cheap running backs there are also tons of studs in plus matchups so that you can balance your risk.
D’Ernest Johnson, Browns, ($4,700DK/$5,400FD)
The Patriots defense has been one big mess this season when it comes to defensing the run and both Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt will be absent leaving D’Ernest Johnson to add to his surprising output with no real threat to eat into his workload. In spot situations this season Johnson is averaging 5.3 YPC and has scored twice on only 37 carries. Yes I am aware that 80% of that output came in one game, but that was also the only game that he was not sharing the backfield with a full strength Chubb or Hunt. Of the value backs we have available this week he is my favorite to use in cash games, and at what will be over 60% ownership you can not really afford to fade him in cash games.
Mark Ingram, Saints, ($4,500DK/$5,500FD):
Both Adrian Peterson and Mark Ingram are relevant? I seriously feel like we are back in 2015. After this, and seeing Le’veon Bell and Devonta Freeman on the field Thursday I am convinced we are in a temporal bubble. With Trevor Sieman at the helm Ingram should see a heavy workload in the absence of Alvin Kamara against a Titans defense that is pretty mediocre at defending the run. The thing that will benefit him however, and will ironically be the most frustrating thing is that I expect to see a lot of Taysom Hill running read option. That will do two things. First, with defenses accounting for that extra wrinkle, Mark should have several chances to break free in wide open lanes. Second, it will make you pull your hair out because Hill could very well vulture multiple scores from him if they get into goal lone situations where he is best utilized. Of my two value backs, if you wanted to fade one of them Ingram would be my lean because of the Taysom Hill factor.
Najee Harris, ($7,900DK/$9,400FD) :
Najee is a usage monster and is near the top of the NFL in both rushing attempts and receptions for running backs. Now the Steelers will be without Big Ben against a Lions defense that simply can not stop the run. His usage should be insane Sunday with……ahem….Mason Rudolph at quarterback. Detroit will be stacking the box for the entire game but I do not think it much matter with a back like Harris who is capable of catching double digit passes out of the backfield in those situations. He is looking like a lock for 22-25 carries and 5-7 targets as his floor in this contest. Yes the points will be ugly, just do not watch this game and check your lineups in the 4th quarter and you can just be happy with the result.
Also Consider: Austin Ekeler, Jonathon Taylor
It is time folks and I wish you all great success in in 2021 and beyond and our WDS: Week 10 NFL Running Back DFS Breakdown 11.14. helps you towards your goals. It is time to start digging into DFS and make sure that we have our processes in place for a successful 2021 NFL campaign. If you have any questions about the Running Back DFS Breakdown, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!
