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This article will focus on NHL Daily Fantasy picks for both FanDuel and DraftKings. Using advanced hockey metrics, slate analysis, and line by line evaluation, this article will point you towards what we think are the best plays for the night! Good luck!
Friday 11/19 NHL Breakdown
What is the NHL doing? One day we have 11 games, and then next we have 2. It makes it a little tougher to manage when the schedule is like this, and it would be nice for the schedule to be more spread out. Hopefully, that happens when we get to the new year and through the holidays. Tonight is a 2 game slate, and because of that, we will break down each game. Don’t forget, we have a late start tonight, as the slate starts at 10pm Eastern.
On a two game slate, it is important to get creative. There is no real ‘wrong’ way to play tonight, as the options are of course very limited. It isn’t out of the question to play a couple different looks of the same line, and if you so choose, you can play a tight pool of players with small variations. At the same time, it is also important to not overthink it. The best plays are the best plays for a reason, so don’t shy away from them.
From a goalie standpoint, it is totally okay to just correlate your goalies with your stacks. You are basically saying that the team you are playing is going to win, so that correlation is fine. Of course, if you prefer to play your favorite goalie, just make sure that you don’t stack against him, because that could limit the upside of your lineup altogether.
Tonight’s slate, based on the Vegas totals, could be a high scoring slate, so we have to find as much scoring as possible to keep up.
Game 1: Colorado Avalanche @ Seattle Kraken
Vegas: COL (-158) total 3.4, SEA (+130) total 2.8; O/U 6
Overview: The Avalanche come into this game as heavy favorites, and rightfully so. The Kraken have been struggling of late, losing their last five consecutive games. Tonight’s matchup is not making this run any easier, and Colorado could very well destroy them tonight. Over that stretch of the last 5 games, the Kraken have given up 4.8 goals per game. Colorado, in their last five, have scored 4.6 goals per game, even without Nathan MacKinnon, who has been hurt. Colorado should be heavy chalk tonight (and for good reason), especially Nazem Kadri with Gabriel Landeskog and Mikko Rantanen, especially as people chase them after their last game.
Goalies
Phillipp Grubauer (Seattle Kraken): Grub has been having a really rough go of it this season, and tonight looks to be a challenge as well. Sporting a bloated 3.18 GAA and rough .877 SV% so far this year, he has been even worse over his last five, with a 4.09 GAA. Grubauer is a tough sell tonight against a team who has the scoring power to dominate this game. Even if Driedger gets the start tonight, this play feels too risky.
Darcy Kuemper (Colorado Avalanche): Darcy has been having a very good season so far, sporting a 2.56 GAA and .916 SV% this season. As a heavy favorite, he should be chalky, and it makes a ton of sense. The shot upside might be limited here, so if he fits in your lineups, then go for it. Overall, he might not be the best play, but he should be the safest.
Lines to Play
Colorado Power Play – Gabriel Landeskog/Mikko Rantanen/Andre Burakovsky/Cale Makar: The best part about playing the power play is that it gets you access to multiple lines. Burakovsky plays on the second line, and tonight should be a good spot for this entire unit, even strength or not.
Colorado 2 – Valeri Nichushkin/Nazem Kadri/Andre Burakovsky: The second line can be played straight up tonight, as they face the depth lines for Seattle. However, it seems the way that Seattle has been playing, it doesn’t really matter the matchup. Samuel Girard and Devon Toews are good D-men that correlate with this line.
Seattle 1 – Jaden Schwartz/Alexander Wennberg/Jordan Eberle/Mark Giordano: IF you want to get different and play the other side of this game, this is the play. The top line for Seattle doesn’t have a specific matchup, based on their line matching patterns. This gives them a slight advantage over the depth lines when they match up against them.
Value Options:
Nicolas Aube-Kubel -W (COL): NAK is a great option for value, as he slots into the top power play
Logan O’Connor – W (COL): Slotting into the top line, he is good value to potentially luck into a couple of points
Marcus Johansson/Joonas Donskoi (SEA): Each of these guys play on the top power play for Seattle, so they correlate well with the top line
Erik Johnson – D (COL): About 20 minutes per night, and gets you shots and blocks; not the prettiest play, but should make you different
Vince Dunn – D (SEA): He has been very inconsistent throughout his career so far, but 20 minutes per game and some time on the power play means he could be a fine value D man
Game 2: Winnipeg Jets @ Vancouver Canucks
Vegas: WPG (-121) total 3.1, VAN (+100) total 3.1; O/U 6
Overview: This game is definitely very interesting, and not nearly as clear cut as the Colorado game. Winnipeg has been playing well recently, taking Edmonton to a shootout last night, and winning three of their last five games. Since they are on a traveling back to back, this makes Vancouver a little intriguing tonight. However, Vancouver has been playing somewhat poorly recently, giving up a whopping 5.2 goals against per game in their last five. It really could go either way tonight, and depending on if Hellebuyck (see goalie notes) actually starts, this could be a game stack situation. Something to note, these two teams have the two worst penalty kills in the league.
Goalies
Thatcher Demko (Vancouver Canucks): Demko is slated to start tonight, and he is in a good spot for shot upside and a potential upset win. However, his recent games have been poor. Over his last five, he is sporting a 3.94 GAA, up from his season-long GAA of 3.31. His team has not helped him, as they are surrendering 11.41 high danger chances against per 60 on the season so far. He was looking pretty good in the very early part of the season, but when you are faced with that many chances night after night, it is tough to keep it up. He is an intriguing deeper GPP option, and you hope you catch him in positive regression against a team that could be tired.
Connor Hellebuyck (Winnipeg Jets): We likely won’t know the official starters until way later, near lock, so make sure you keep an eye on who starts. If Hellebuyck starts in a back-to-back, he has a good win potential tonight, and should be middle of the road when it comes to shot volume. Though he hasn’t played a lot this season, if Eric Comrie gets the nod, then he is a solid play that can be considered, but Helle is the preferred play tonight if he goes.
Lines to Play
Winnipeg 2 – Kyle Connor/Pierre-Luc Dubois/Blake Wheeler: The even strength matchup for this line looks very, very good, as they should get the likes of the Elias Pettersson line for most of the game tonight. That line is giving up 12.13 high danger chances per 60, and in a small-ish sample, this line generates 20.2 high danger chances per 60. If you really want to limit your exposure, you can drop Dubois and play a Connor/Wheeler mini, but this whole line is in a good spot.
Winnipeg Power Play – Andrew Copp/Kyle Connor/Nikolaj Ehlers/Neal Pionk: As mentioned above, the penalty kill units in this game are the two worst in the league, so this unit will have ample opportunity tonight. The Canucks happen to be the worst team at killing penalties, and they are also spending 5.27 mins/G on the penalty kill, which is high enough to want some of this unit.
Vancouver 1 -Tanner Pearson/Bo Horvat/Nils Hoglander: This top line should match up against the Mark Scheifele line tonight, in a very nice looking matchup. The Scheifele line is surrendering 2.91 expected goals against, 40.18 scoring chances against, and 14.61 high danger chances against, all per 60 minutes. This line is producing 3.14 expected goals, 44.28 scoring chances, and 14.2 high danger chances per 60, which puts them in a fantastic matchup at even strength tonight. The concern with this line is that their production has been lackluster, so will they actually capitalize on those chances? Oliver Ekman-Larsson is a good correlating defender to pair with this line.
Vancouver Power Play – Brock Boeser/Bo Horvat/Elias Pettersson/J.T. Miller/Quinn Hughes: This unit gets to go against the 31st ranked penalty kill tonight, and playing this unit gets you access to the top two lines, which is a good thing, especially on a two game slate. It will make you different. With the Winnipeg PK struggling, this could be different enough with upside to get you there.
Value Options
Riley Nash – W (WPG): He is listed on the top power play, and provides a ton of salary relief if needed
Andrew Copp -W (WPG): Top power play AND top line winger, getting good minutes in an upside spot
Tucker Poolman – D (VAN): The “off D man”, meaning he is the D man opposite OEL tonight. He still gets top pair minutes at a huge discount and playing “off D men” is one way you can get unique with your lineup.
Tyler Myers – D (VAN): He logs about 20 minutes per game and fills up the “fringe stats” like shot blocking and shots on goal
Cash Considerations – DraftKings
None – cash is not recommended tonight!
Cash Considerations – FanDuel
None – cash is not recommended tonight!
Make sure to hop in our Expert Discord Chat for FREE! Jon and the NHL team will be there answering questions right up until lock! Be sure to be on the look out for future articles at https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-hockey/
All line combinations are courtesy of www.dailyfaceoff.com, and the advanced rates referenced in the above article are pulled from www.naturalstattrick.com.
