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Welcome back to the Week 11 NFL DFS Cash Game Checkdown after an absolute SMASH yet again in Week 10 for the Win Daily cash game crew! The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:
- High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
- VALUE PLAYS
- Not a part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE.
- Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually fine to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter @stixpicks to discuss further.
In my opinion, cash games are extremely important for long-term bankroll building and sustainability. I’ll consistently use at least 50% of my weekly bankroll towards cash games. It’s not sexy, but it works and allows me to take big shots in high dollar GPPs.
Long story short, if we hit our cash games each week, the worst we can do is break-even (not counting your GPP shots with the remaining 50% of your weekly bankroll). The weeks you hit both, you smash. The weeks you miss your GPPs, your cash game lineup will carry you. It’s my job to ensure you always hit those cash games.
If you haven’t yet, I would strongly advise giving my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason before diving into the 2020 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter. Without further ado, let’s do this thing!
*Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 10, please see below for my notes on roster construction:
- DAL/KC is obviously the game of the week and you can get plenty of exposure to it through all of the value that’s opened up this week.
- Just because a player is not mentioned in this article, does not mean they are not cash viable.
- AETY Model Projections change throughout the week, please ensure you check out our final projections before lock!
- I update this article periodically through the week. Be sure to check back on Saturday night for any additions/revisions!!
NFL DFS Quarterbacks
Patrick Mahomes ($7,600 DK / $8,300 FD)
This game has fantasy-point heaven written all over it with a total of 56-points. We don’t need to talk much about Patrick Mahomes besides it was refreshing to finally see this offense back in business last week as Mahomes threw for over 400 yards and five touchdowns!
Dak Prescott ($7,200 DK / $8,400 FD)
Similar to Mahomes, getting signal-caller exposure to this afternoon hammer is something that will likely be crucial for NFL DFS Cash Game lineups. No need to get into more detail other than the good news that Tyron Smith is back in action. This is going to be a fun game.
*Update: Tyron is OUT. Still love Dak, but leaning Mahomes or Burrow only for cash.
Joe Burrow ($6,600 DK / $7,400 FD)
On the cheaper side, the AETY Model absolutely loves Joe Burrow and the Bengals’ offense as a whole in Week 11 as they come off of their bye week to visit the Las Vegas Raiders (22nd ranked pass defense DVOA). I said it on Twitter a couple weeks ago and I have to trust the system, especially when Zac Taylor is starting to play more up-tempo and pass-heavy like we’re used to seeing. This is an excellent spot for Burrow to put up a high-floor, cash game worthy outing.
Honorable Mention: Josh Allen
Running Backs
Dalvin Cook ($8,200 DK / $8,400 FD)
Dalvin Cook against the Packers’ is always a smash spot, as his career splits are absolutely disgusting. Green Bay is notorious for struggling against the run (24th in run defense DVOA) and despite the Vikings’ not being nearly as efficient on the ground as they have been in years’ past, Dalvin Cook is arguably the highest floor running back on this slate. My only concern is how slow the Packers’ play on offense, so I could see a path to an average Cook outing, but the floor is there for cash consideration.
Ezekiel Elliott ($7,700 DK / $8,500 FD)
If you’re not playing Dak Prescott in cash, find a way to get to Ezekiel Elliott. Kansas City’s run defense is still awful despite some improvements and more health on the defensive line over the past couple of weeks, but no one has more touchdown equity in the highest total game on the slate than Elliott. With Tyron Smith back, Elliott should be poised for another monster fantasy output.
A.J. Dillon ($6,200 DK / $7,000 FD)
With no Aaron Jones, A.J. Dillon is likely to be 80% owned in NFL DFS cash game formats. Lock him in against the Vikings’ 28th ranked run defense (DVOA).
Jeff Wilson Jr. ($5,100 DK / $5,000 FD)
Assuming Eli Mitchell is OUT, Jeff Wilson is the freesquare of the week. We ALWAYS love a Kyle Shanahan running back who won’t be splitting time (ah la, our early season love for Eli Mitchell) and will continue to do so this week… especially against the Jaguars 28th ranked defense in terms of overall DVOA. The 49ers have a 26-point implied team total that should give us significant touchdown equity with Jeff Wilson.
Mark Ingram ($5,400 DK / $6,800 FD)
With CEH back, Ingram is now the cheap value RB3 next to Jeff Wilson. Taking Darrel Williams out of this article.
Honorable Mention: Christian McCaffrey, Nick Chubb, D’Onta Foreman
NFL DFS Wide Receivers
Tyreek Hill ($8,200 DK / $8,500 FD)
He’s expensive and likely not necessary for your cash game lineup, but at 20-25% ownership projection for cash game contests, Tyreek Hill is the type of player than can carry you to the pay-line or bury you if you fade him and he has a ceiling game. Hill has had a consistent 27% target-share average over the last two months and will continue to get his as Andy Reid schemes Tyreek Hill open on every drive this Sunday afternoon.
A.J. Brown ($7,700 DK / $7,200 FD)
Way too cheap on FanDuel for A.J. Brown and his league-leading, 32% target-share since Week 6. Terrance Mitchell and Desmond King are in for a long, long day trying to keep up with the YAC man himself, A.J. Brown.
Tee Higgins ($5,400 DK / $6,500 FD)
Higgins is likely to be the highest owned wide receiver on this slate and for good reason. This matchup against the Raiders’ secondary is primed up for a man-coverage beater like Tee Higgins. Eat the chalk/value here and move on. Ja’Maar Chase is also in an incredible spot, but I’ll take the savings with Higgins.
Michael Gallup ($4,200 DK / $5,400 FD)
If Higgins is not the highest-owned wide receiver in NFL DFS cash game lineups, I would bet that Michael Gallup is. If we want to get multiple avenues of DAL/KC exposure, Gallup is an excellent value freesquare now that Amari Cooper has been put on the COVID-19 injury reserve.
Honorable Mention: Rashod Bateman, Ja’Maar Chase, Stefon Diggs, CeeDee Lamb
NFL DFS Tight-Ends
Keeping this one simple. With the significant value on this slate, I’m playing one of the two stud tight-ends.
Travis Kelce ($7,100 DK / $7,300 FD)
Darren Waller ($6,100 DK / $6,700 FD)
Honorable Mention: George Kittle, Dalton Schultz, Dan Arnold, John Bates (only if he is the only piece of “fat” in your build)
NFL DFS Defense / Special Teams
I’ll rarely write about defense and special teams in the Cash Game Checkdown. I believe it’s much more important to lock in your key skill position players and hopefully a solid defense fits your build. Prices considered, here’s who I’ll take a look at:
Cleveland Browns
Philadelphia Eagles
Carolina Panthers
Seattle Seahawks
Washington Football Team
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate.
