DFSGhost 
A ton of injuries can shift tonight’s NBA slate, but we’ll be going into our look ahead with players that are in certainty. While this is a big one to tackle, many games can easily be crossed off, with few being attractive to us when we consider key elements of our game environments. It’s Mojito Monday’s edition of the Gems – let’s ride.
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Point Guards
LaMelo Ball ($10,200 DK / $9,000 FD)
While his minutes have been the furthest thing from consistent in the early stages of his NBA career, LaMelo Ball has now logged 34 or more in five straight games, where he’s been on a serious tear. Sporting a 26.6% usage rate in that span, Ball has posted a near triple-double average with 18.2/10.2/9.4 on a mere 37.5% shooting. His volume has taken a huge uptick, and he’s averaged 52.16 DK points per night in those same five games, making him the top target at the position, if spending up.
Darius Garland ($7,200 DK / $6,200 FD)
With the number of injuries and players on the COVID list for the Cavaliers, expect Darius Garland to be one the highest rostered players on any given NBA slate. Posting 20 or more points in four of his last five games, Garland has a 28.7% usage rate alongside Ricky Rubio during this stretch, where he’s taking over 18 FGA per night. Facing a Brooklyn defense that ranks 24th in the league versus primary scoring ball handlers, Garland is a good place to start our cash lineups, and may force his way into the conversation for tournaments as well.
Honorable Mentions:
- Dejounte Murray ($9,200 DK / $9,700 FD)
- De’Aaron Fox ($7,600 DK / $7,300 FD)
Shooting Guards
Donovan Mitchell ($8,500 DK / $8,300 FD)
Coming into tonight’s contest versus Memphis, Mitchell has 20 or more points in 10 or his last 11 games, where he’s sported a whopping 34.9% usage rate and has posted a 26 PPG on 45.9% shooting, all while taking over 21 FGA per night. Memphis ranks dead last in the NBA in defensive rating, and while Dillon Brooks will be in his grill all night long if he plays (currently listed as doubtful), there is plenty to love about Spida tonight.
Anthony Edwards ($7,400 DK / $7,900 FD)
A day where Anthony Edwards is featured here is never fun for me because I simply do not enjoy his game, nor do I enjoy rostering him in DFS. Nonetheless, the Timberwolves get the Pelicans tonight, who rank 29th in the NBA in defensive rating, making their trio of Towns, Russell, and Edwards awfully enticing. Edwards leads the team in usage rate with a 28.4% clip, and this is a game where he can go full selfish and play hero ball considering how bad New Orleans is at guarding an isolation offense, let alone any offense, Edwards could be in for a big night.
Honorable Mentions
- Bradley Beal ($9,300 DK / $8,500 FD)
- Lugentz Dort ($5,100 DK / $6,400 FD)
Small Forwards
Jayson Tatum ($10,100 DK / $10,000 FD)
It would be a fairly large risk to pay up for Tatum tonight, but the position is so thin that there are few targets above $5,000 worth mentioning. With the return of Jaylen Brown looming, Tatum will be back to his normal workload, which simply isn’t enough for such a hefty price tag. Nonetheless, Tatum has three straight games of 30 or more points, and eight straight of 20 or more points, all while having an increased usage rate and touches per game. I’ll likely avoid him on tonight’s NBA slate, but can’t blame you if you take the raw points and run.
Josh Giddey ($6,000 DK / $6,000 FD)
Seeing more minutes and responsibility on the offensive end for the rebuilding Thunder, Josh Giddey is fairly priced tonight but still offers upside. The rookie last hooped in Australia before going 6th overall in the most recent NBA Draft, where his ball handling and playmaking have been on display nightly. Sporting a 22.4% usage rate in his last three games, Giddey has scored in double digits in every one, despite only taking 13 FGA per night. Facing a Hawks defense that ranks 23rd in the league against combo guards, Giddey would benefit greatly from SGA missing this game, but will be on my shortlist regardless.
Honorable Mentions:
- Miles Bridges ($8,200 DK / $8,200 FD)
- Josh Hart ($5,500 DK / $5,300 FD)
Power Forwards
Tobias Harris ($8,100 DK / $7,500 FD)
Another position that is as scarce as ever, Tobias Harris stands out due to his role on this 76ers team that is still without Joel Embiid. With Sacramento ranking 26th in the NBA in defensive rating while also being 8th in pace, the 76ers will likely opt to go smaller and take Andre Drummond off the floor more frequently, making Harris the focal point of the offense once again. Carrying a 27.1% usage rate on the season thus far, Harris is one of the best plays on the slate in the mid range of the pricing grid.
Update: Ruled out.
Kevin Love ($5,800 DK / $5,700 FD)
While a certain center will certainly be a lock in my NBA lineups tonight, Kevin Love also warrants consideration considering the number of absences the Cavaliers have right now. With Evan Mobley on the shelf and Cedi Osman doubtful to play, Love will be the first big man off the bench considering Lauri Markkanen is playing in his first game after his own battle with COVID. In two games since returning to the lineup, Love has a 28.2% usage rate while logging 21.5 MPG, having posted a 14/8/2 scoring line on 40.9% shooting.
Honorable Mentions:
- Giannis Antetokounmpo ($12,000 DK / $11,700 FD)
- Domantas Sabonis ($8,700 DK / $8,400 FD)
Centers
Rudy Gobert ($8,300 DK / $8,300 FD)
While he was rostered at an abnormally high rate in the past week, this is a matchup where I want to target Gobert. Having logged five double-doubles in a row, Gobert’s floor is as safe as it comes, while also offering tremendous upside due to a matchup versus the NBA’s worst defense in Memphis. The Grizzlies allow the second most points in the league to true centers, while also ranking 19th in defensive rebounding, giving Gobert ample opportunity on the offensive glass.
Jarrett Allen ($7,700 DK / $7,500 FD)
Barring a clear minutes restriction, Allen will be a cog to our NBA lineups tonight. By now, you know who is out of this Cavaliers lineup, and Allen will be relied upon to take advantage of a Nets interior defense that is simply non-existent whether Blake Griffin or LaMarcus Aldridge are manning the paint. Allen leads the league in paint touches per game, while also being fourth in points per paint touch – do the math, it’ll be a fun result versus his former team.
Honorable Mentions:
- Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,500 DK / $9,900 FD)
- Jonas Valaciunas ($8,900 DK / $8,000 FD)
- Montrezl Harrell ($6,200 DK / $7,400 FD)
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