DFSGhost 
Following a great slate yesterday, today’s NBA action is split into two small slates; one in the afternoon, and one in the evening. Rather than simply going over individual plays, which will still be touched on, we’ll take a deeper dive into the strategy to deploy at each respective start time. It’s Seltzer Sunday’s edition of the Gems – let’s ride.
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Early Slate (3:30pm EST)
The early NBA slate features only two matchups: GS @ LAC and MIL @ IND. While this is as small a player pool can get on a non-showdown slate, there is no shortage of star power, with Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,200 DK / $11,500 FD), Steph Curry ($11,000 DK / $10,400 FD), and Paul George ($9,900 DK / $9,400 FD) all available to us.
Assuming there is minimal value that will propel our combinations to the top of the tournament leaderboard, we’ll be evaluating the mid range in our preview while letting the model decide which value – if any – will be in play come tomorrow morning. Firstly, seeing Malcolm Brogdon ($7,300 DK / $7,200 FD) underpriced against his former team sticks out like a sore thumb. The former UVA point guard is coming off two games where he saw a heavy dose of action after failing to top 30 minutes in the previous three games. Sporting a 25.5% usage rate on the season, Brogdon gets a Milwaukee defense that ranks 24th in the NBA to primary ball handlers, including being 25th in pick-and-roll defense. On the flipside of this game, Bobby Portis ($6,800 DK / $6,500 FD) is someone who will likely get overlooked due to an uncommon price tag, but it is more than deserved. Portis has picked up the slack immensely for the Bucks frontcourt with Brook Lopez still sidelined, where the big man is sporting a 21.7% usage rate in his last ten games, while also posting a 17.9/9.1/1.6 scoring line on 54.4% shooting.
On both slates, despite the smaller player pools, my strategy will be the same as always: prioritize elite game environments, then dive into individual plays that find themselves in the best spots within the best game environments. Since there are only two games on this NBA slate, we don’t have the luxury of eliminating games altogether, but the GS @ LAC game will take precedence for me over MIL @ IND. Because of this, I’ll side with prioritizing Steph Curry and Paul George, in that order, and stick to the mid range and value plays in the second game of the afternoon.
Main Slate (6pm EST)
With two of the three games featured on the main NBA slate beginning right at the 6pm EST lock time, most will likely stay away from the DET @ LAL players, and rightfully so. Anthony Davis ($10,800 DK / $10,300 FD) is questionable to play in this one, which will certainly propel both Russell Westbrook ($11,000 DK / $9,600 FD) and LeBron James ($10,500 DK / $10,000 FD) into the conversation for being must-haves, but the fact that we may not get the news we need before the other games start make it a risky path to take.
The highlight of this NBA slate is that the Memphis Grizzlies will be in their first game without star Ja Morant, who went down with a serious knee injury only eight minutes into their last game. Though the injury is not season-ending, we’ve yet to hear about a concrete timeline for the talented point guard, so here’s to wishing him a speedy recovery. With this happening to Morant and the Grizzlies, there are certainly more touches to go around on offense, and being in the best game environment on the slate makes their offensive weapons all that much more attractive to us. In the mid range, Dillon Brooks ($6,100 DK / $5,800 FD) will be the primary benefactor to Morant’s absence, with a significant increase in usage rate from 32% to 36.6% with Morant off the floor. Other, the trio of Desmond Bane ($5,700 DK / $5,400 FD), Tyus Jones ($4,800 DK / $3,800 FD), and De’Anthony Melton ($3,700 DK / $4,500 FD) will all be high in my player rankings. We don’t have to go to another game to find more attractive plays for our NBA lineups, as the Sacramento Kings will likely be without Harrison Barnes tomorrow, who is currently listed as doubtful, in addition to Richaun Holmes being ruled out already. In their last game versus the Lakers, where they won a thriller in triple overtime, De’Aaron Fox ($8,300 DK / $7,600 FD) led the charge with a 30.2% usage rate and a 34/6/8 scoring line on a team-leading 32 FGA, while Buddy Hield ($6,400 DK / $5,800 FD) and Tyrese Haliburton ($6,700 DK / $6,300 FD) also thrived with 25.8% and 16.5% usage rates, respectively, combining for 44 points, 10 rebounds, and 15 assists.
With the SAC @ MEM game being the one that has the majority of my action, I do want to mention Marvin Bagley ($4,500 DK / $4,000 FD) as a potential flier, depending on what the model has to say tomorrow morning. With former coach Luke Walton now gone, Bagley’s talent has been on display, and just recently logged 34 minutes versus the Lakers, posting a season-best 13/7/4. With Memphis committing to deploying smaller lineups with Jaren Jackson Jr. at the ‘5’, Bagley could see extended run at the expense of Alex Len. Other, the BOS @ TOR game will likely be the one I am listing as my second option, considering that both teams are missing crucial pieces to their systems. The Celtics will be without Robert Williams and Dennis Schroder, while the Raptors will be without Khem Birch. Moreover, OG Anunoby remains questionable, as does Jaylen Brown and Gary Trent Jr. We’ll be taking the wait-and-see approach as we get confirmation on the statuses of these players, but Fred VanVleet ($8,100 DK / $8,400 FD) is far and away my favorite target in this one. Taking over the reigns from the greatest Raptor of all time, Kyle Lowry, FVV has been having a tremendous season for the Raptors, where his 23.3% usage rate and 19.7/4.9/6.7 scoring line provide both stability and ceiling to our NBA lineups.
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